The 15 GCs are introduced as follows (page 10):

"The 15 Global Challenges provide a framework to assess the global and local prospects for humanity. The Challenges are interdependent: an improvement in one makes it easier to address others; deterioration in one makes it harder to address others. Arguing whether one is more important than another is like arguing that the human nervous system is more important than the respiratory system."

This is a good start, but it underestimates the complexity of GC interdependencies. For instance, it could be that improvement in one makes it harder to improve one or more of the others; this might be the case with GC3 and GC13. Likewise, deterioration in one might make it easier to prevent or mitigate deterioration in others; slowing down on GC7 might expedite GC4. And these are examples of first order effects. Complexity is further increased by second and higher order effects. A prudent possibility is to give the same answer to every question: "It depends." But then the value added by this analysis would be zero, which is by no means desirable. Thankfully, there are several options that can be used as "sanity checks" for the "what, where, when, why, who, and how" of decision making about overcoming the GCs, individually or collectively:

• Decision making about the "what, where, and when"
  • Use lists or directories of global issues (for example, the Global Issues Research Guide), and check if any critical one is missing

  At least one is missing: the role of organized religion. Indeed, the influence of religion in global issues is pervasive. Sometimes the influence is positive, sometimes it is negative. But after the Inquisition and 9/11 (just to mention two episodes), religious violence is a factor that should not be ignored. This is, of course, a controversial topic, but there is no reason to think that we have seen the last episode of religious violence in human history. If both physical and psychological violence are taken into account, religious institutions can have a significant impact on each and everyone of the CGs. One obvious point of impact is GC11. By excluding women from roles of religious authority, some religious institutions are perpetuating male domination in both religion and society. By persisting in the use of male images of God, some religious traditions are perpetuating the phallocentric mentality that leads to all manner of violence against women, including domestic violence.

  • Use a 15x8 matrix to analyze CG coverage of the MDGs and vice versa

  This requires a team of experts, but an example is shown in Figure 4 of the September 2007 issue.

  • Use a 15x15 matrix to analyze the feasibility of sequencing or multiplexing GC subsets

  This requires a team of experts, but an example is shown in Figure 5 of the September 2007 issue.

  • Use causal loop diagrams to identify chains of second and higher order effects

  This is better done by a team, a simple example for the MDGs is shown in Figure 1 of the October 2007 issue.

• Decision making about the "why, who, and how"
  • Use futures research methods for forecasting and analysis of global change

  Already being used by the Millennium Project (see Futures Research Methodology)

  • Use the Delphi method to seek consensus about the most probable future from a panel of experts

  Already being used by the Millennium Project (see Global Lookout Studies)

  • Use various qualitative analysis methods to elucidate the reasons for human decisions about the GCs

All the sections on the GCs include some statistical information on the "what, where, when." Again, there are quantitative analysis techniques that can be used so as to see both the trees and the jungle. But the most important insights are the "why, who, how" to approach each of the GCs in the context of all the others (it is noted that all the GC questions start with "how"). Many kinds of objective evidence are gathered for qualitative analysis; but the "data" are not numerical, so numerical calculations are not applicable. There are, however, methods of qualitative analysis that are helpful to clarify the meaning of "why, who, how" for each GC individually and all GCs together.

These methods generally attempt to explain the inner reasons for the decisions and actions of human beings, and the explanation is elicited from groups using various methods. Since the SOF report is already the result of gathering and filtering answers from groups, it seems reasonable to take the group answers as printed in the SOF report and proceed with further analysis. For each GC "question", the "core segment" (i.e., "key phrase, sentence, paragraph") of the SOF "answer" is identified and categorized. Then, inductive analysis can be used to do a "sanity check" on the SOF answers to the GCs, both individually and in context with the others.

1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all?

CORE SEGMENT: "The synergy between economic growth and technological innovation has been the most significant engine of change for the last 200 years, but unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social behavior and close the gap between the rich and the poor, the next 200 years could be difficult."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

economic growth technological innovation change economic behavior change social behavior change environmental behavior close rich-poor gap growth last 200 years uncertain next 200 years

2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

CORE SEGMENT: "We need an integrated global water strategy, plan, and management system to focus knowledge, finances, and political will to address this challenge."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

integrated global water strategy integrated global water plan integrated global water management knowledge access financial management political will

3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

CORE SEGMENT: "The factors reducing population growth still need to be reinforced. These include increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality, empowerment and education of women, urbanization, and family planning."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

population growth reduction increased income improved literacy diminished infant mortality empowerment of women urbanization family planning

4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

CORE SEGMENT: "Although making development assistance dependent on good governance has helped in some countries, genuine democracy will be achieved when the people—not external actors—demand government accountability. International protocols are needed to assist failed states or regions within states, and intervention procedures are needed when a state constitutes a significant threat to its citizens or others."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

development assistance good governance genuine democracy people internally demand accountability external actors demand accountability international protocols intervention procedures threat to citizens threat to other countries

5. How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

CORE SEGMENT: "The world has become too complex to be managed by nation-state hierarchies alone; new patterns of governance are emerging to better manage global long-term decisionmaking."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

world system global system complexity nation-state hierarchies new patterns of governance global management long-tern decisionmaking

6. How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

CORE SEGMENT: "The Internet is moving from a system to find and read pages to users contributing and interacting with multimedia..... The Internet is already one of the most powerful forces for globalization, democratization, economic growth, and education in history, and now a planetary collective intelligence is emerging."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

global ICT expansion more than find and read users interacting with multimedia users providing inputs users collaboration internet enables globalization internet enables democratization internet drives economic growth internet enhances education planetary collective intelligence

7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

CORE SEGMENT: "A strategic plan for a global partnership between the rich and poor should be created and implemented that uses the strength of free markets and rules based on global ethics to reduce the disparities that otherwise might grow enough to increase migration of the poor to richer regions, increasing conflicts."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

strategic plan global partnership rich-poor solidarity free markets global ethics contain migration brain drain gap leads to conflicts

8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune micro-organisms be reduced?

CORE SEGMENT: "WHO’s eHealth systems, new regulations to address SARS-like threats, immunization programs, and the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) are global responses to this challenge ...."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

WHO eHealth systems contain SARS-like threats immunization programs GOARN-type networks

9. How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

CORE SEGMENT: "The world is moving toward ubiquitous computing with collective intelligence for just-in-time knowledge to inform decisions..... Decisionmakers training programs should bring together research on why irrational decisions are made, lessons of history, futures research methods, forecasting of intended and unintended consequences, insights from cognitive science, data reliability, utilization of statistics, conventional decision support methods (e.g., cost/benefit, PERT, etc.), ethical considerations, goal seeking, risk, the role of leadership, transparency, accountability, and participatory decisionmaking."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

ubiquitous computing collective intelligence just-in-time knowledge rapid decisionmaking minimize irrational decisions learn from history futures research data-based decisionmaking evidence-based decisionmaking participatory decisionmaking goal-seeking decisionmaking transparency accountability

10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

CORE SEGMENT: "The probability of a more peaceful world is increasing due to the growth of democracy, international trade, global news media, the Internet, satellite surveillance, world travel, better living standards, and the evolution of the UN. Massive public education programs are needed to promote respect for diversity, equal rights, and alternatives to violence."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

peace spreading growth of democracy international trade global news media satellite surveillance world travel better living standards promotion of human rights alternatives to violence

11. How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?

CORE SEGMENT: "Gender-based Gini coefficient and other gender parity indexes should be encouraged, as should women’s education for political responsibilities, fostering solidarity instead of competition, guaranteeing the legal rights of women (such as access to credit, land, technology, training, health care, and child care), and establishing women’s political and economic networking organizations. This is of particular importance to rural, migrant, refugee, internally displaced, and disabled women. Such an effort includes educating men to fully respect women and directly working with the media, which too often perpetuate harmful gender stereotypes."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

Gini coefficient other gender equity indices education of women education on women for men education on men for women women in politics women in positions of authority women in the professions sensitivity by the media gender stereotypes not acceptable

12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

CORE SEGMENT: "Transnational organized crime continues to grow in the absence of a comprehensive, integrated global counter strategy..... An international body would use a priority system for collaboration for arrest and prosecution of one TOC leader at a time based on the volume of money laundered rather than specify categories of crimes."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

transnational crime drugs, weapons, human trafficking need global counter strategy need international body need international justice system amount of money laundered obsolete classification of crimes

13. How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

CORE SEGMENT: "The options to create and update global energy strategies are too complex and rapidly changing for decisionmakers to make coherent policy. Yet the environmental and social consequences of incoherent policy are so serious that a new global system for collective intelligence is justified. Such a system has to be designed so that it can be understood and used by the general public, politicians, and non-scientists, as well as by leading scientists and engineers around the world."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

global energy strategies very fast technological changes need strategic global system global system accessible to general public global system accessible to politicians global system accessible to scientists global system accessible to non-scientists worldwide system access

14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

CORE SEGMENT: "We need a global information system to track advances so that politicians and the public can understand potential consequences of new S&T. The risks from acceleration and globalization of S&T are enormous .... and give rise to future ethical issues."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

global information system general understanding of S&T advances general understanding of S&T impacts acceleration and globalization of S&T new ethical issues will emerge human condition is bottom line

15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

CORE SEGMENT: "Global ethics must not only correspond to major religious morals, it should also engage both believers and nonbelievers in a new alliance that creates a sense of “being with” all humankind—including “futurekind,” so that we act in the interests of future generations."

SEGMENT CATEGORIES:

global ethics global decisions ethics of major religions ethics of non-believers belonging to humankind belonging to futurekind fairness to future generations global decisions routinely ethical

The 15 core segments yield 119 categories. By grouping them into semantically homogeneous groups, the 119 categories are consolidated as follows:

CONSOLIDATED CATEGORIES:

Radical cultural transition Global governance supported by ICT Education for global citizenship Advancement of women Financing when indispensable

41 39 26 16 12

The reader will note that the five consolidated categories add up to 134, which is greater than 119. The reason is that some of the categories were semantically homogeneous in more than one of the consolidated categories. In this analysis, we have focused on the "how" rather than the "why" or the "who." Politically, the "who" is very hard to determine ex ante at the inception of a major global transition in which so many nations are still struggling with the MDGs. Regarding the "why", the tacit assumption underlying this analysis is that René Girard´s mimetic theory generally applies, i.e., the most common reason people behave the way they do is that they imitate others.

It is suggested that the 2007 SOF's proposed management of the 15 GCs contains a few points of weakness:

• Excessive reliance on massive amounts of financial aid.
• Excessive reliance on technological fixes and breakthroughs.
• Disregard of obsolete religious institutions and their enormous influence.
• Overestimation of the human being's capacity to undergo radical cultural change.
• Lack of any priority ranking for the proposed action plans.
• Tacit assumption that some form of democratic global governance is around the corner.
• Marginal consideration of the principle of subsidiarity.
• Insufficient mapping of GC action plans to MDG targets, indicators, and qualitative issues.

In summary, the following are recommended as top priorities to overcome the GCs and attain the MDGs:

1. Enhance the individual and social capacity to undergo a radical cultural transition for sustainable human development
2. Research the path toward UN reforms and democratic global governance (subsidiarity, innovation, ICT)
3. Education for global citizenship (unity in diversity, unity of humanity and the human habitat)
4. Elimination of subsidies and heavy taxation, democratically set, to institutions that violate human rights and/or practice any form of discrimination, in particular the exclusion of women from roles of secular or religious authority
5. "Outside-in" financial aid to be used if, and only if, GCs/MDGs cannot be accomplished "inside-out."

This review of the 2007 SOF Global Challenges in no way intends to diminish the value of the enormous amount of knowledge that the WFUNA Millennium Project has accumulated during the past eleven years. Rather, it is assumed that the MDGs are the best model of the path to be followed toward sustainable development. The intention is then to clarify the implications for policy making and MDG implementation, and to structure the information so as to provide maximum support to both social justice and environmental justice, that there be harmony between people and planet.

4. State of the Future Index (SOFI)

The State of the Future Index (SOFI) is introduced in the Executive Summary as follows:

"Participants selected by the 29 Millennium Project Nodes around the world were asked to via an online Real Time Delphi to rate the variables, give worst and best scenario impacts, suggest new variables to be included in the SOFI, and suggest data sources that could provide at least 20 years of historical data .... Assessing the world's key indicators over the past 20 years and projecting them for the next 20 years gives us a basis for a report card for humanity's future, showing where we are winning or losing."

Going back 20 years under conditions of accelerated global change may give too much weight to the oldest data. It is suggested that exponential smoothing might be more appropriate. Exponential smoothing is basically a moving average that gives the greatest weight to the most recent data points in a time series and progressively less weight to data points as they become older. The calculation of the exponential moving average is very simple, and it may be a better model of human behavior in that people tend to give more weight to recent events.

The aggregate SOFI index is plotted in the Executive Summary (Figure 1, page 6), and a tabulation is given of areas in which humanity is "winning" and "losing" (Box 1, page 6). Box 1 provides examples of things deteriorating while others improve. For instance, GDP/capita is improving, but we are losing the global warming battle. Both life expectancy and infant mortality are improving, but that may be reinforcing population growth. Overall, it is stated that "the world is improving, but not as rapidly as it did over the last 20 years." Figure 1, Box 1, and the list of 29 variables are reproduced here as Figure 2:

Figure 2 - State of the Future Index 2007
Source: WFUNA Millennium Project
REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION

List of factors included in the 2007 SOFI:

1. Population lacking access to improved water sources (percent of population)
2. Literacy rate, adult total (percent of people aged 15 and above)
3. Levels of corruption (15 largest countries)
4. School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)
5. Poverty headcount ratio at $1 a day (PPP) (percent of population) (Low and Middle Income Countries)
6. Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons (number)
7. CO2 emissions (global, kt)
8. Unemployment, total (percent of total labor force)
9. GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2000 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)
10. Number of major armed conflicts (number of deaths >1,000)
11. Population growth (annual percent)
12. R&D expenditures (percent of national budget)
13. People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number)
14. Energy produced from non fission, non fossil sources (percent of total primary energy supply)
15. Food availability (cal/cap)
16. Population in countries that are free (percent of total global population)
17. Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
18. GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
19. People voting in Elections (percent population of voting age)
20. Physicians (per 1,000 people)( surrogate for Healthcare Workers)
21. Internet users (per 1,000 pop)
22. Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 births)
23. Forest Lands (percent of all land area)
24. Life expectancy at birth (years)
25. Women in parliaments (percent of all members)
26. Number of Refugees (per 100,000 total population)
27. Total debt service (percent of GNI) (Low and Mid Income Countries)
28. Prevalence of HIV (percent of population)
29. Homicides, intentional (per 100,000 population)

The analytical process for combining these 29 variables into one aggregate SOFI is mercifully described in a separate publication, State of the Future Index, which includes plots of many of the individual variables. In Chapter 2, more information is given about the origin and evolution of the SOFI, including plots of trend impact analysis and a comparison of the 2005 and 2007 SOFIs (Figure, 18 and 18, page 46). A list of the 90 future events driving the impact analyses should have been included, if only to see what kinds of significant events the experts consider to be probable. Going back to the 29 variables (should the $2T "transnational organized crime" activity be the 30th variable?), it is pointed out that they "can be grouped into six domains: moral expectations, physical expectations, security expectations, health expectations, intellectual expectations, and wealth expectations." A very informative "radar diagram" showing the trends for these expectations is shown in Figure 19 (page 47). But now we have 8 MDGs, 15GCs, 29 SOFI variables, 6 SOFI expectation groups, and the 5 consolidated GC categories derived in the previous section. It would be very useful to have some kind of traceability table that shows what is related to what.

This section also includes a discussion of National SOFIs. In fact, "SOFIs can be computed at the global, national, regional, or even sectoral levels." The "sectoral levels" probably refer to industry sectors such as the ones defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) (see the NAICS2007 for the latest revision). Interesting SOFIs are shown for Turkey and South Korea. It is hard to imagine that the national SOFIs can be done without nation-specific adaptation of the 29 SOFI variables, but this is precisely what is proposed as the goal for further research on the SOFI:

"It now appears that creation of a "standard" for national SOFIs could be useful. This would be essentially an instruction manual for use in constructing national SOFIs; it would include spreadsheet software and global data where applicable. Once several countries have produced SOFIs to the same standards, a systematic cross-sectional and longitudinal comparison could be accomplished."

|Back to OUTLINE|

5. Education and Learning 2030

This section of the 2007 SOF reports on a research project requested by the Republic of South Korea. The objective is to identify and assess "future possibilities for education and learning by the year 2030." This is the basic futuristic assumption:

"The rate of change over the past 23 years seems very fast for many people today, yet the factors that made those changes possible are accelerating. As a result, the changes over the next 23 years will be even greater. What might those changes be for education and learning?"

The following "possibilities influencing education by 2030" (Box 3, page 54) were identified:

1. National programs for improving collective intelligence
2. Just-in-time knowledge and learning
3. Individualized education
4. Use of simulations
5. Continuous evaluation of individual learning processes designed to prevent people from growing unstable or becoming mentally ill
6. Improved individual nutrition
7. Genetically increased intelligence
8. Use of global on-line simulations as a primary social science research tool
9. Use of public communications to reinforce pursuit of knowledge
10. Portable artificial intelligence devices
11. Complete mapping of human synapses to discover how learning occurs and thereby develop strategies for improvement of learning
12. Means for keeping adult brains healthier for longer periods
13. Chemistry for brain enhancement
14. Web 17.0
15. Integrated life-long learning systems
16. Programs aimed at eliminating prejudice and hate
17. E-Teaching
18. Smarter than human computers
19. Artificial microbes enhancing intelligence

Each of these possibilities was evaluated in terms of:

What might make this happen?
What are some positive consequences?
What prevents this from happening?
What are some negative consequences?

The answers to these questions for the 19 possibilities are very comprehensive, reflect the state of the art, and consider the risks to be managed going forward. However, no traceability or evidence of applicability to the GCs is provided. And now we have 8 MDGs, 15GCs, 5 consolidated GC categories, 29 SOFI variables, 6 SOFI expectation groups, and 19 educational possibilities. It would seem desirable to evaluate each of the 19 educational possibilities in terms of their prospective contribution to the 15 GCs (and/or the 8 MDGs). The following remarks are offered as they came to mind during the review:

Item 1: This one is a must. May need to take into account the "collective unconscious."

Item 2: This one is a double edge sword. Surely, decisions are to be made based on timely evidence. But, as is well known, accuracy and relevance often suffer when learning/analysis time is minimized. In some cases, learning and/or making decisions too fast may lead to system instability. Good generals know this: "dress me slowly, because I am in a hurry." (Napoleon Bonaparte)

Item 3: $100 laptops may help, but will never replace a good teacher. The crucial issue here is how to provide incentives to be a teacher (decent pay would help).

Item 4: Simulation is the only way to go in trying to understand the behavior of complex nonlinear systems. See Forrester, Fey & Lam
, and Thwink.

Item 5: People get mentally ill due to some chemical imbalance in the brain, often triggered by external events; but not from learning. This item needs clarification.

Item 6: Is there an inverse proportionality between insufficient nutrition among the poor and obesity among the rich?

Item 7: Messing around with genetic enhancers is risky, both individually and socially. If using steroids can be harmful and unethical, imagine genetically enhanced intelligence. We need good people. We don't need a super race.

Item 8: Teachers should do the teaching, but online simulations can trigger student curiosity and desire to learn.

Item 9: It is hard to find anything wrong with this one, except when public communications are used to transmit pornography and other garbage.

Item 10: Pattern recognition is still very unreliable, and there may be due to intrinsic differences between physics and biology. Computers can defeat a chess champion but, can they defeat human intuition?

Item 11: Nervous impulses can come and go, but the key concern is the question at the end: is love only a set of chemical reactions?"

Item 12: There is nothing wrong with delaying the advance of diseases such as Alzheimer's or Parkinson's. However, it would not be very exciting to see old persons behaving like teenagers.

Item 13: Prescribing drugs such as Ativan, Zoloft, and Cymbalta to help mentally ill people out of their misery is certainly a plus. The real problem is the demand for heroine, cocaine, and other "recreational" drugs. As long as the demand keeps increasing, international drug traffic will keep increasing.

Item 14: The "first" web was a web of documents. Web 2.0 is a web of data. Web 3.0 is expected to use "semantic rules" (such as the "if-the" rules of AI) to enable users to run a application (for instance, a time series analysis) by "fishing" the right data from documents, databases, etc., and "integrating" all the data into a set that will enable the application to produce the "best possible" analysis, keeping traceability to the sources. If and when we get to Web 17.0, people envision a "life-long learning" resource accessible to anyone with none or the most elementary programming skills. See Tim Berners-Lee and A 'more revolutionary' Web.

Item 15: Let the wizards worry about web functionality in 2030. Creating the habit of life-long learning will take time, and perhaps it can mature in the general public by 2030. Ensuring that this maturity is achieved is the most important priority for human development, starting here and now.

Item 16: This one is critical. The Judeo-Christian Bible (especially the Gospels) and the Bahá'í writings are the best guides. The importance of religion (as opposed to organized religion) in human development cannot be overestimated; see The SAGE Handbook on the Sociology of Religion. Just a few jewels for your consideration:

"Many sociologists have come to realize that it makes no sense now to omit religion from the repertoire of social scientific explanations of social life."
"In the last two decades the sociology of religion has experienced an intellectual renaissance. The old paradigm of secularization has been replaced with new theories and methods recognizing the importance of religion in modern society. The new topics include women and spirituality, violence and power, globalization and globalization, fundamentalism, identity and life course, spiritual markets and rational choice theory."
"Serious social scientists who care about making sense of the world can no longer ignore the fact that religious beliefs and practices are an important part of this world. Nor can scholars claim to understand religion by adding a couple of variables to their models, anymore than they could understand race, gender, or social class this way."
"At a time when religions are increasingly affecting, and affected by, life beyond the narrowly sacred sphere, religion everywhere seems to be caught up in change and conflict."

Item 17: E-Teaching can complement human-to-human teaching, but it can never obviate the need for human interaction between teachers and students. No technology, no matter how good and how accessible, can replace the human parents, or teachers, or mentors.

Item 18: Again, computers can defeat a chess champion; but "artificial intelligence" is a misnomer ("computer-assisted intelligence" would be better), and there is no such thing as "artificial intuition," let alone "artificial solidarity," "artificial empathy," "artificial generosity," etc.

Item 19: To think that "artificial microbes enhance intelligence" is science fiction, pure and simple. The Genome Project is about understanding the genetic makeup of the human species via controlled experimentation with DNA variations. The Genome Project is not about developing "steroids for the brain." It is hoped that WHO, the FDA in the USA, and similar agencies in other countries, will not allow any such concoction to reach the market disguised as "medications."

The statement quoted at the beginning of this section assumed that "changes over the next 23 years will be even greater" than the changes we have experienced during the past 23 years. But most of the changes in the late 1900s were technological, not cultural. Culturally, the "me, me, me" mentality of extravagant consumption and power struggle has persisted, and even worsened. There is no technological breakthrough that will motivate homo economicus (me and only me) to become homo solidarius (me and the common good). Some new widgets may be helpful. But a laptop for every child in the world, and a Prometheus white board for every classroom in the world, will do little to improve education by 2030 unless it shifts from "learning" to "learning to learn," and from "learning for me" to "learning to learn for me and the common good." At the moment, the highest priority is the formation of teacher-mentors that can prepare children for life-long learning and a new world of solidarity, sustainability, and non-violence; and this new mindset also requires some depth of spirituality. This could be an splendid challenge for religious institutions as soon as they stop accumulating wealth, start reforming authoritarian forms of governance, and make their primary concern to pray and work for the glory of God and the good of humanity rather than just their own perpetuation.

|Back to OUTLINE|

6. Emerging Environmental Security Issues

The 2007 SOF defines "environmental security" as follows (pages 8 and 79):

"The Millennium Project defines environmental security as environmental viability for life support, with three sub-elements: preventing or repairing military damage to the environment, preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts, and protecting the environment due to its inherent moral value."

Section 4 of the 2007 SOF Report, on Emerging Environmental Security Issues, is a comprehensive survey of security-related environmental issues. The tight coupling between human behavior and the human habitat is exposed in terms of peace versus war. A directory of about 900 war-related sources of environmental degradation. These war-related sources include both the direct impact of military operations and pollution and other hazards generated by manufacturing instruments of war.

This is research is in progress, but an annotated listing of these 900 sources as of June 2007 is provided in a separate report (free pdf download). This report identifies the growing number of international agreements (summarized in Box 4, page 88 of the 2007 SOF), the benefits derived from the adoption of the ISO 14001 standard for Environmental Management Systems, the European Union's Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), the elements to be included in environmental security analyses, advances in using "clean technologies" (see The Cleantech Report), the social disruptions - such as massive migration - caused by war-induced environmental degradation, and the need to comply with the Precautionary Principle.

Former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has warned that "environmental degradation has the potential to destabilize already conflict-prone region specially when compounded by inequitable access or politicization of access to scarce resources." Current UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has stated ("Global Warming: Confronting the Crisis" Conference, New York, March 1, 2007) that "In coming decades, changes in the environment—and the resulting upheavals, from droughts to inundated coastal areas—are likely to become a major driver of war and conflict.". Nevertheless, the ugly noise of the drums of battle has not been extinguished. Why not?

Patriarchy is the root of war. Patriarchy is the root of secular wars, and it is the root of religious wars as well. This is not an abstract concept. It is an observable pattern which has persisted for at least 5000 years. More recently, it has been recognized that wars are destructive to both humanity and the human habitat. The best (and perhaps the only) way to mitigate wars, or avoid them altogether, is to foster the transition from patriarchy to solidarity.

The following statement pertains to the transition from patriarchy to solidarity (page 9):

"It has been considered ridiculous to try and achieve health and security for all people .... The idealism of the welfare of one being the welfare of all could become a pragmatic long-range approach to countering terrorism, keeping airports open, and preventing destructive mass migrations and other potential threats to human security."

According to the patriarchal mindset, human security is something to be achieved by those who have more money, more missiles, and more men and women willing to fight. The USA army is now offering a $20K bonus to any high school graduate willing to enlist, and the army ranks are now mainly composed of blacks, hispanics, and poor whites. With few exceptions, these young men and women keep enlisting because it a way to escape being poor in a rich society. As long as the transition from patriarchy to solidarity does not become a reality, the warning of the Senegalese ecologist (page 86) is a prophecy of environmental insecurity: "The waste is often accepted by corrupt people or factions who want money to buy weapons."

|Back to OUTLINE|

7. The Future Started Yesterday

In Volume 1 Number 1 (May 2005), of this newsletter, a preliminary process model was introduced in order to facilitate discussing the dynamics of complex social transitions. Volume 3 Number 11 (November 2007) revisited the model to show some of the people whose work has contributed to understanding the four phases and their recursive dynamics. The model is revisited once again below in order to understand how the SOF global challenges relate to the four phases. The following is simply offered as a reflection that may eventually evolve into a mental simulation. Consider the following four phases:

Phase 1: from Patriarchy to Solidarity
Phase 2: from Solidarity to Sustainability
Phase 3: from Sustainability to Individuation
Phase 4: from Individuation to Non-Regression

At the moment, all the GCs are about Phase 1 of the transition: going for patriarchy to solidarity (or, in Lindser's terminology, "egalization"). This transition is about overcoming the patriarchal mindset and embracing an ethos of non-violence and human solidarity. But it may be useful to think, in broad terms, about time phasing the priorities and allocation of resources to the GCs. This is easier to do for the GCs than for the MDGs, because the GCs are more granular. Consider the following visual representation of the four phases:

PHASE 1 - FROM PATRIARCHY TO SOLIDARITY Liberation from patriarchy (absolute power) and advent of democracy (checks and balances) Turning points forward: 1776, 1945, 1989 Turning points backward: 1939, 2001, 2003 PHASE 4 - FROM INDIVIDUATION TO NON-REGRESSION Individuation leads to mature freedom of conscience and acting for the common good; this is the death of patriarchy and the birth of a new Gaia Consolidation: global governance, socioeconomic democracy, subsidiarity, solidarity, sustainability Bifurcations: climate change, peace unwanted Patriarchal Mindset Antidotes: Egalization SE Democracy (UGPI & MAPW) GCs: 4,7,8,10,11 Solidarity & Non-Violence New Ethos: Break Cycles of Scapegoating and Violence-Humiliation GCs: Same + 1,6,13,14 Human Development Inner Limits: Human Rights Human Wisdom Divine Wisdom GCs: 1 to 15 Sustainable Development Outer Limits: Peace & Justice Subsidiarity Technology GCs: Same + 12 PHASE 2 - FROM SOLIDARITY TO SUSTAINABILITY Liberation from patriarchal intolerance, feasible expansion of outer limits and increasing concern for the common good Steps forward: Jesus, Mohammed, Bahá'u'lláh, Gandhi Steps backward: Inquisition, Imperialism, Fundamentalism PHASE 3 - FROM SUSTAINABILITY TO INDIVIDUATION Sustainable development allows resources to support the inner journey from knowledge to wisdom Progress: human rights, women's emancipation Regression: genocide, gendercide, Vatican, Ayatollahs

Figure 3 - Revision of the Global Transition Model

The following phase by phase lists show a possible scenario regarding the incremental allocation of GCs to phases. There can be overlappings and loops, progressions and regressions, but the items in red indicate the phase during which the bulk of a GC should be resolved. This is simply a conjecture of how to time phase the GCs incrementally. At some level of decomposition, such time phasing of activities becomes inevitable as it is impossible to do everything at the same time.

During phase 1 (from patriarchy to solidarity), the following five GCs are critical to get the transition started:

04. Democratization
07. Reduce rich-poor gap
08. Health issues
10. Peace and conflict
11. Status of women

During phase 2 (from solidarity to sustainability), the following additional GCs become critical:

01. Sustainable development
02. Clean water
04. Consolidate democratization
06. Global convergence of ICT
07. Minimize rich-poor gap
08. Mitigate HIV and other health issues
10. Consolidate ethos of peace
11. Consolidate gender equality
13. Energy supply and demand
14. Science and technology fixes

During phase 3 (from sustainability to individuation), the following additional GCs become critical:

01. Consolidate sustainable development
02. Consolidate clean water
04. Consolidate democratization
06. Consolidate global convergence of ICT
07. Minimize rich-poor gap
08. Mitigate HIV and other health issues
10. Consolidate ethos of peace
11. Consolidate gender equality
12. Transnational organized crime
13. Stabilize energy supply and demand
14. Regulate science and technology fixes

During phase 4 (from individuation to regression prevention), the following additional GCs become critical:

01. Consolidate sustainable development
02. Consolidate clean water
03. Population and resources
04. Consolidate democratization
05. Long-term perspectives
06. Consolidate global convergence of ICT
07. Minimize rich-poor gap
08. Mitigate HIV and other health issues
09. Decision-making capabilities
10. Consolidate ethos of peace
11. Consolidate gender equality
12. Minimized transnational organized crime
13. Stabilize energy supply and demand
14. Regulate science and technology fixes
15. Global ethics

Sadly, we now have 4 phases to keep in mind in addition to the 8 MDGs, 15 GCs, 5 consolidated GCs, 29 SOFI variables, and 6 SOFI expectations. But the time dimension is something to think about, because it is doubtful that all the GCs can be resolved concurrently. The calendar time for the four phases shown in Figure 3 is probably in the order of decades. The most plausible scenario is for the GCs to be overcome asynchronously at the global level, let alone the regional, national, and local levels.

At each level, the GCs will be addressed in conjunction with the jigsaw puzzles of the political process. They will be addressed under conditions of risk and uncertainty. They will be sabotaged by all manner of vested interests. The fossil fuels industry will claim to the end that the best destiny for humankind is to be fossilized into oblivion. Religious institutions may resist losing some of the privileges that make them so powerful. The GCs, as well as the MDGs, may be overtaken by catastrophic events, both socially and environmentally. And so it may well be, that practicing Linblom's "science of muddling through" is the best we can do. This does not exonerate us from forecasting the future the best we can, and planning the best we can. But there is muddling ahead of us, and our best hope is to muddle together.

"Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable. We are faced now with the fact that tomorrow is today. We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now. In this unfolding conundrum of life and history there is such a thing as being too late…We may cry out desperately for time to pause in her passage, but time is deaf to every plea and rushes on. Over the bleached bones and jumbled residues of numerous civilizations are written the pathetic words: Too late." Martin Luther King Jr. 'Where do we go from here: chaos or community'

|Back to OUTLINE|

8. Prayer, Study, and Action

Christmas 2007



"Peace on earth will come to stay
When we live Christmas every day."
Helen Steiner Rice
1900-1981

|Back to OUTLINE|

9. Links to Archived Newsletters

The following are links to previous issues of the newsletter:

V1 N1 May 2005: Cross-Gender Solidarity
V1 N2 June 2005: The Phallocentric Syndrome
V1 N3 July 2005: From Patriarchy to Solidarity
V1 N4 August 2005: Synthesis of Patriarchy and Solidarity
V1 N5 September 2005: From Solidarity to Sustainability
V1 N6 October 2005: Dimensions of Sustainability
V1 N7 November 2005: Analysis and Synthesis of Objective Evidence
V1 N8 December 2005: Solidarity, Subsidiarity, and Sustainability
V2 N1 January 2006: Synthesis of Solidarity and Sustainability
V2 N2 February 2006: Sustainable Human Development
V2 N3 March 2006: Patriarchy and Mimetic Violence
V2 N4 April 2006: Mimetic Violence in Patriarchal Religions
V2 N5 May 2006: Mimetic Violence in Patriarchal Religions 2
V2 N6 June 2006: Mimetic Violence in Patriarchal Religions 3
V2 N7 July 2006: Mimetic Violence in Patriarchal Religions 4
V2 N8 August 2006: Mimetic Violence in Patriarchal Religions 5
V2 N9 September 2006: Sabbatical Activity ~ September 2006
V2 N10 October 2006: Sabbatical Activity ~ October 2006
V2 N11 November 2006: Sabbatical Activity ~ November 2006
V2 N12 December 2006: Sabbatical Activity ~ December 2006
V3 N01 January 2007: MDG1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty
V3 N02 February 2007: MDG2: Universal Primary Education
V3 N03 March 2007: MDG3: Promotion of Gender Equality
V3 N04 April 2007: MDG4: Reduction of Child Mortality
V3 N05 May 2007: MDG5: Maternal Care Improvement
V3 N06 June 2007: MDG6: Contain the HIV/AIDS Epidemic
V3 N07 July 2007: MDG7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability
V3 N08 August 2007: MDG8: Global Partnership for Development
V3 N09 September 2007: Integrated Analysis of the U.N. MDGs
V3 N10 October 2007: Feasibility of the 2015 MDG Targets
V3 N11 November 2007: If Not the MDGs, Then What?
V3 N12 December 2007: Review of the 2007 State of the Future Report

---

|Back to SUMMARY| |Back to OUTLINE|

|Back to SECTION 1| |Back to SECTION 2| |Back to SECTION 3|
|Back to SECTION 4| |Back to SECTION 5| |Back to SECTION 6|
|Back to SECTION 7| |Back to SECTION 8| |Back to SECTION 9|

|Link to Newsletter Home Page|

|Link to Invited Paper|