Figure 3 suggests a way in which the thresholds UGPI and MAPW might temper any excessive optimism and any excessive pessimism about global issues such as global warming, resource depletion, and the rich-poor gap. The suggestion is that having an UGPI should stimulate the consumption of necessities by those who have no other sources of income. The MAPW, on the other hand, would moderate both the accumulation of non-necessities and the seemingly inevitable consumption of non-necessities that is generated by the excessive (sometimes extravagant) accumulation of non-necessities. Thus the "plus" sign on the arrow leading from UGPI to "per capita consumption" and the "minus" sign in the arrow leading from MAPW to "per capita consumption."
A book could be written about these and other possibilities. Hopefully, the UGPI and MAPW policy concepts will increase awareness about our ignorance about how to do long-term planning for the MDGs and, eventually, sustainable peace and justice
A synopsis of mimetic theory has been provided in a previous issue and just a brief refresher will be given here. Mimesis provides a general explanation of social behavior and cultural evolution. The mimetic ("imitative") nature of human decisions and actions follows a cyclical pattern that includes five phases: mimetic desire, mimetic rivalry, disruptive escalation, scapegoating, and violent resolution. There may be overlaps and variations, but it is useful to think about these phases both individually and as an integrated process. In summary:
Mimetic Process
The mimetic process is basically the same at all levels of power, and for all kinds of rivalries and competitions. It explains conflicts over religion, gender, sex, politics, attention, money, properties, power, ethnicity, etc. Any given conflict, at any given point in time, is in one of the five phases of the mimetic process, which repeats itself like a vicious cycle. The only way to break the vicious cycle is to renounce the use of violence.
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Phases of the mimetic process:
1. Mimetic desire - can be physical or metaphysical, entails a person/group desiring what another person/group has.
2. Mimetic rivalry - can be friendly competition, becomes rivalry when either person/group refuses to share.
3. Disruptive escalation - competition escalates and becomes disruptive of social harmony and a threat to the authorities.
4. Scapegoating - to avoid facing the "politically incorrect" crisis, blame for the disruption is assigned to a given. person/subgroup
5. Violent resolution - the scapegoat person/subgroup is punished to restore harmony and preserve authority structures.
Violence can take many forms, from killing the scapegoat to stonewalling the conflict resolution process by invoking higher authority, which then becomes the scapegoat (this is somewhat similar to what is commonly known as "passing the buck").
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All the five phases are ubiquitous in the process of working toward the MDGs. Let's focus on the "scapegoating" phase. Even though we are just at the midpoint in the timeline toward the goals established for 2015, any indication of slow progress is "politically incorrect" and requires finding a person/group that can be blamed for the failure of those who have responsibility and authority to get things going. There are plenty of vulnerable persons/groups around, so pointing fingers in one direction is never too difficult. For good examples we just have to take a look at the news:
MDG1 - The rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer, because the poor are lazy.
MDG2 - Girls are kept out of school because religious traditions have a mindset of male supremacy.
MDG3 - Catholic women are denied ordination because Christ has not authorized the Vatican to ordain them.
MDG4 - If child mortality rate remains high, it is because most doctors are only interested in making money.
MDG5 - If maternal mortality rate remains high, it is because nurses are only interested in making money.
MDG6 - The HIV/AIDS epidemic cannot be abated because homosexual sex is an abomination.
MDG7 - Unsustainable development persists because people are not diligent in recycling pollution.
MDG8 - A global partnership for development cannot be attained because terrorists have WMDs.
For more examples, go to Google News and enter "scapegoat." Mimetic theory is a powerful tool that can be used for social analysis and social development. As any other tool, it can be misused, either intentionally or unintentionally, by people/groups seeking revenge against those they hate for whatever reason. Scapegoating is easy. But analysis of scapegoating behavior must be evidence-based. Is there a chronic pattern of scapegoating behavior by a person/group? Is the situation one in which those with authority and responsibility would be embarrassed if their negligence or their reasons for refusing to act is exposed? Is the scapegoating a way to cover-up for crimes against those who are weak and vulnerable, especially children? If the answer to these questions is in the affirmative, scapegoating has become an obstacle to human development and should be confronted, "with velvet gloves and iron hands." And, it seems reasonable to anticipate that, as we get closer to 2015, there will be a lot of scapegoating about not being able to attain the MDGs.
6. Review of the "Millennium Project" Website
There are many web sites related to global issues to be faced during the 21st century, especially within the UN systems. One of the most interesting is the Millennium Project on global futures studies and research. It functions under the auspices of the World Federation of United Nations Associations (WFUNA), an "independent, non-governmental organization with Category One Consultative Status at the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) and consultative or liaison links with many other UN organizations and agencies." The following is a high level synopsis of the Millennium Project web site:
The Millennium Project World Federation of UN Associations
The Millennium Project is sponsored by the World Federation of UN Associations (WFUNA). The WFUNA website states: "Inspired by the opening words of the United Nations Charter "We the Peoples", the World Federation of United Nations Associations was established in 1946 as a peoples’ movement for the United Nations."
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The State of the Future (SOF) is the flagship publication of the Millennium Project. Published annually since 1996, the 2007 SOF (recently published) is the eleventh edition.
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Each blue box in the rectangular logo (at the top of the front page) of the the Millennium Project web site is a link to a section of information content. This provides the experienced visitor with a convenient shortcut to the information of interest, but the first time visitor may get lost clicking on the links in random order. The best navigation path for the first time visitor might be to start with "What's New" and then proceed counterclockwise. For the numerically inclined, one of the most interesting sections is the State of the Future Index (SOFI). The 29 factors included are listed below. SOFI projections do not constitute formal statistical inference at a given confidence level. But, in exposing the rationale for the number crunching, useful insights emerge.
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Current Nodes:
Argentina (Buenos Aires)
Australasia (Melbourne)
Azerjaijan (Baku)
Belgium (Brussels)
Brazil (Sao Paulo)
Canada (Montreal)
China (Beijing)
Cyber-Collaboration
Czech Rep (Prague)
Egypt (Cairo)
Finland (Helsinki)
France (Paris)
Germany (Berlin)
Gulf Region (Kuwait)
India (New Delhi)
Iran (Tehran)
Italy (Rome)
Japan (Tokyo)
Korea (Seoul)
Mexico (Mexico City)
Russia (Moscow)
Slovenia (Bratislava)
South Africa (Pretoria)
Turkey (Istanbul)
UK (London)
Venezuela (Caracas)
USA (Silicon Valley)
USA (Washington DC)
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According to the website home page, "the Millennium Project of WFUNA is a global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities .... The purpose of the Millennium Project is to be an international utility to assist in organizing futures research by continuously updating and improving humanity's thinking about the future and making that thinking available for feedback as a geographically and institutionally dispersed think tank."
The website serves as point of convergence for integrating an enormous amount of information, data, and insights that continuously emerge from a worldwide network of 27 research nodes, including the central node in Washington, DC. This array of resources is coordinated by Jerome C. Glenn, Director of the Millennium Project. A review of the resources available in the other 26 nodes dispels any notion about them being informal groups of flaky "futurists" with tennis shoes. The caliber of the node members (see their resumes and affiliations), and the research and educational activities undertaken each year, makes this one of the best "special forces" in the struggle to overcome the most critical global issues facing humanity.
Links to the sections where the content resides are provided at the top of the front page:
- What's NEW: 2007 State of the Future Report (SOF2007)
- Millennium Project Overview (in 8 languages)
- Planning Committee
- Sponsors and Affiliated Institutions
- Millennium Project Nodes (27)
- Futures [Information Collection] Matrix
- Global Challenges for Humanity
- How can sustainable development be achieved for all?
- How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
- How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
- How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
- How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?
- How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?
- How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
- How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune micro-organisms be reduced?
- How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?
- How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
- How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?
- How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
- How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
- How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
- How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
- State of the Future Index (SOFI). Factors included:
- Population lacking access to improved water sources (percent of population)
- Literacy rate, adult total (percent of people aged 15 and above)
- Levels of corruption (15 largest countries)
- School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)
- Poverty headcount ratio at $1 a day (PPP) (percent of population) (Low and Middle Income Countries)
- Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons (number)
- CO2 emissions (global, kt)
- Unemployment, total (percent of total labor force)
- GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2000 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)
- Number of major armed conflicts (number of deaths >1,000)
- Population growth (annual percent)
- R&D expenditures (percent of national budget)
- People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number)
- Energy produced from non fission, non fossil sources (percent of total primary energy supply)
- Food availability (cal/cap)
- Population in countries that are free (percent of total global population)
- Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
- GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
- People voting in Elections (percent population of voting age)
- Physicians (per 1,000 people)( surrogate for Healthcare Workers)
- Internet users (per 1,000 pop)
- Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 births)
- Forest Lands (percent of all land area)
- Life expectancy at birth (years)
- Women in parliaments (percent of all members)
- Number of Refugees (per 100,000 total population)
- Total debt service (percent of GNI) (Low and Mid Income Countries)
- Prevalence of HIV (percent of population)
- Homicides, intentional (per 100,000 population)
- Project Participants
- Internships Available
- Millennium Project public discussion group (listserv)
- About WFUNA
- Millennium Project Press Room
- Global Scenarios
- Global Lookout Studies
- Books and Reports
There are a number of additional links at the bottom of the front page. Most of them are redundant with the main navigation paths listed above. Others seem to be old and lead to pages that cannot be found. This may be a temporary result of the recent porting of the web site from the AC/UNU server to the WFUNA server.
By far the most informative and insightful content is the annual State of the Future (SOF) report, which has now been produced by a team directed by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon for eleven consecutive years. The 2007 State of the Future (SOF2007) report has been published, and both the Executive Summary and the Table of Contents are free downloads. The full report comes with a CD and can be ordered for $49.95. This may exceed the budget of many scholars, which is unfortunate.
One of the most useful information gateways provided by this web site is the Futures Matrix, which provides links to information content relevant to several dimensions of the Global Challenges. On the other hand, since the WFUNA Millennium Project is fully supportive of the MDGs, it is surprising not to find a mapping between the 8 MDGs and the 15 Global Challenges. Figure 4 shows one possible way to build such a mapping. The rows are Global Challenges, the columns are MDGs. The marks in the cells could be links to knowledge content that is relevant to both the Global Challenges and the MDGs. But please note that Figure 4 is just a straw man, not a fully analyzed matrix with links to information sources.
| 15 GCs vs. 8 MDGs |
MDG1 |
MDG2 |
MDG3 |
MDG4 |
MDG5 |
MDG6 |
MDG7 |
MDG8 |
| GC01. Sustainable development |
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X |
X |
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X |
X |
| GC02. Clean water supply |
X |
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X |
X |
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X |
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| GC03. Population & resources |
X |
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X |
X |
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X |
X |
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| GC04. Democratization process |
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X |
X |
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X |
X |
| GC05. Long-term planning |
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X |
X |
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X |
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| GC06. Global ICT network |
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X |
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X |
| GC07. Minimum rich-poor gap |
X |
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X |
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X |
| GC08. Health issues |
X |
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X |
X |
X |
X |
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X |
| GC09. Decision-making capability |
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X |
X |
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X |
X |
| GC10. Peace & conflict management |
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X |
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X |
X |
| GC11. Gender equality |
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X |
X |
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X |
X |
X |
X |
| GC12. Transnational crime |
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X |
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X |
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X |
| GC13. Energy supply & demand |
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X |
X |
| GC14. Science & tech breakthroughs |
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X |
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| GC15. Global ethics |
X |
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X |
X |
X |
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X |
X |
Figure 4 - Information Intersections between the Global Challenges and the MDGs
Click on the cell Xs to view the information applicable to a GC-MDG pair
(this is just an example - life links have not been inserted)
A classical square matrix analysis (see Section 3) also could be done for the 15 Global Challenges. Figure 5 shows an example of precedence and partitioned matrices. Again it is noted that these are just straw man examples. The marks in the matrix are bogus. It is simply suggested here that the resulting roadmap of information content (links in the black diagonal cells) and information flows (links in the non-diagonal cells) might be useful for a future edition of the SOF. If the 15x15 matrix is sparse (recommended at the beginning of the analysis) there is a higher probability of obtaining either a triangular or block-triangular matrix, as shown in Figures 1 and 2 for the MDGs. If the 15x15 matrix is too dense, then the entire matrix may turn out to be a block. But, as noted in Figure 5, it still can be very useful to identify smaller nested blocks of GCs that share a lot of the same information. If the small blocks are resolved first, then the larger blocks becomes more amenable to analysis as a total system.
| GC |
01 |
02 |
03 |
04 |
05 |
06 |
07 |
08 |
09 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
| 01 |
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9 |
9 |
5 |
1 |
5 |
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5 |
1 |
9 |
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