The E-Newsletter of
[ssnvrainbow]
A Monthly Digest of Current Research, Emerging Issues, and New Initiatives

Vol. 3, No. 9, September 2007
Luis T. Gutierrez, Editor

Newsletter Home Page

MISSION STATEMENT

Violence is the main obstacle to human development. There is an intrinsic link between violence and religion, patriarchal gender violence being the most pervasive expression of religious violence. Mitigating violence therefore requires overcoming the patriarchal mindset, especially in religious institutions. The mission of this independent newsletter is to provide a commented digest on current research and emerging issues related to human solidarity, ecological sustainability, and both religious and secular non-violence. The U.N. "Millennium Development Goals" (MDGs) are used as a point of reference.


Theme of this Issue
Integrated Analysis of the U.N. MDGs


SUMMARY

This issue provides some ideas on how to do integrated analysis of the MDGs. Such analyses can be at the local, national, or global level, but their objective is always the same: to understand how the eight MDGs interact as a system, and to steer the interactions so that MDG projects reinforce each other. Three methods are suggested for MDG interdependency analysis:

  • The square matrix method to identify precedence-with-overlap information flows among the MDGs
  • The system dynamics method to identify feedback loops and dynamic interaction among the MDGs
  • The use of the mimetic theory of human behavior to analyze social responsiveness to the MDGs

Surely, many other methods are available. They all reflect the classical system analysis approach in five phases: define the problem, gather data, isolate the root cause of the problem, determine how to eliminate or bypass the root cause, and test the proposed solution. Systemic analysis and synthesis is the best way to move forward, even as we continue to "muddle through" together.

The Millennium Project of the World Federation of UN Associations (WFUNA) is an excellent example of systemic thinking about the critical global issues facing humanity. This issue includes a review of their resource-packed web site.

The SSNV knowledge taxonomy and links database has been updated to correlate the MDGs with applicable information content. Readers can view the entire database, and can download either the HTML page or an excel file that contains the entire table and embedded HTML code.

The invited article this month is Wisdom in the university, by Nicholas Maxwell and Ronald Barnett, reprinted with permission from the London Review of Education, Volume 5, Issue 2, 2007.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

RESEARCH REPORT & MONTHLY DIGEST

1. Selected News & Emerging Issues
2. The U.N. Millennium Development Goals
3. Matrix Analysis of MDG Interdependencies
4. MDG Loop Diagrams & Feedback Dynamics
5. Mimetic Analysis of the MDG Process
6. Review of the "Millennium Project" Website
7. Web Resources & Knowledge Taxonomy
8. Prayer, Study, and Action
9. Links to Archived Newsletters

INVITED PAPER

Wisdom in the university
by Nicholas Maxwell and Ronald Barnett

OTHER ITEMS
The Pelican Symbol
Religious Traditions
Memorable People
Sign of the Times
Hillary for President
SSNV Call for Papers
MDG Pubs & Data
Worth Visiting
Announcements & CFPs
Insightful Art
Honor Killings Slideshow
PelicanWeb Site Search
Downloads
World News
Donations


1. Selected News & Emerging Issues

The following is a selection of recent news related to solidarity, sustainability, and non-violence, some specifically in the context of the U.N. Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and related global issues.

Only the topics are listed, and sometimes abbreviated. Simply hover your mouse inside the box to stop the scrolling, and click on any title to navigate to the news source, where both the complete citation and the complete text are provided.

Sustainable development and capitalism are incompatible

EPA Releases the Draft of 2007 Report on the Environment

Females in political scene - gender equity won't go away

World leaders urge action to reach development goals

Explaining issues in Islam

The sacred and the human

There are 610 Million Cars, Trucks, and Buses on World Roads

We can't afford to pollute first, improve later

Big Business And The Eradication Of Extreme Poverty

Career women in Japan find a blocked path

Biofuel production spreading around world

Sex trafficking spreading HIV in South Asia

The long-term benefits of free education

Cixous, Girard, and theories of gender

The Cost of Violence in the United States

Unified approach to human development

The Anglican Communion must embrace UN Millennium Goals

Environment, Sustainable Development And Globalisation

Sustainability Is A Complex, Team Endeavor

China urges accommodation to "emissions of subsistence"

FGM Declaration calls on religious and traditional leaders
to educate members

Religious organizations should spearhead gender equality

Economic development through reform of
public sector management in Africa

From Socially Responsible Investing to Sustainable Investing

New forms of violence against Yemeni women
and persisting discriminative laws

Bolivia struggles to unite for social change

Jihad, crusades and tolerance: a Christian scholars view

Characteristics of modern slavery

The Economic Integration of SAARC

"Why Can't Women Be Priests
in the Roman Catholic Church?"

Catholic social teaching & its contribution to social change

All about sustainable development

Globalization and the narcotics trade

Economic Development Group Launches Multi-Language Website

Subsidiarity

Religious leaders urged to combat gender-based violence in Africa

Postmodern Words on Gender Relations in the Church

Globalization and the preservation of national cultural identity

2007-2057: A Story of European Decline

The Backlash Against Globalization

Global Challenges in Transition to the Conscious-Technology Age

Stewarding technologies for collaboration, community building
and knowledge sharing in development

Kenya: First Lady Asks Catholics to Support Women's Empowerment

APEC ministers see need for fiscal transparency and sustainability

Ecosystem Stability and Resilience

The Greatest Challenge for The 21st Century

The Press and Politics

Oxford Vatican Scholar Asks Pope to Be First Woman
Admitted to Vatican's All-Male Diplomatic Academy

Energy Transitions Past and Future

In The Belly of The Beast: Jamaat ul-Fuqra

Forget globalization. Here's how to profit from 'localization.'

Made in Lebanon - a recipe for peace-building

What about Equal Funding for Faith-Based Education?

168,000 people a year die as a direct result of pollution
Millions more in Africa as a result of famine.

Central America: ‘The Big Challenge Is to Distribute Wealth’

Inequities: Why the corporate-tax loophole needs to be closed.

Misogyny: The World’s Oldest Prejudice

Is there a Christian Way to Development?

Mauritius: Sex Workers Unprotected From Violence

Tech-savvy pro-Tibet protesters get message across

Kathy Ireland to Address Future World Leaders at United Nations

The downside of diversity

Hillary Clinton talks to Grist about energy and the environment

Why We Must Label Al-Qaeda Terrorism "Jihad Martyrdom"

Development: A New Breed of Hero

At UN, youth stress efforts to promote development

Don’t focus on MDGs alone

Meet the New Face of Terror

At World Bank, climate change isn't part of the equation

Why Globalization is Older than We Think

Male Involvement in Maternal Health
Critical to Saving Women's Lives

Slope spills range from crude oil to saltwater:
4,481 spills, about 2 million gallons were lost in 10 years;
long-term effects are unknown.

UN Declares International Day of Nonviolence

Archive Footage Available for Sustainability Films

Women priests to match males by 2025

The time to get rid of ‘perverse subsidies’ is now

Our Lives, Controlled From Some Guy’s Couch

Water Levels in 3 Great Lakes Dip Far Below Normal

Retirees a likely scapegoat target

Nun provides water to illegal immigrants

Breaking shackles of religion

System Dynamics at 50

Germany's Once-Violent Feminist Adopts Quiet Life

Exclusive global CNN documentary 'God's Warriors'
examines religion, power and politics

'God's Warriors'
CNN Podcast. Three Nights. Six hours.
Reported by Christiane Amanpour
August 22, 23, 24 at 1300/1900 GMT

Note: The podcast is also available for download from iTunes.

A faith in dire need of reform

India Looks to Future on Independence Anniversary

Energy research sorely lacks solidity of purpose

Reengaging With the World
U.S. foreign policy must go from fear to hope

The poor deserve justice, not charity

Humans are infinite spirits in a finite world

Church faces women bishops split

Religion is not primarily about God,
but about the human need for the sacred

Pollution Causes 40 Percent Of Deaths Worldwide, Study Finds

Social injustices stunt economic growth

Research reveals church's feminine side

Sex for survival

Rwanda: The Charity-Industrial Complex

The Politics of God

Measuring sustainable economic growth and development

Iraq Scenarios Post-2010

Leadership Patterns and Ordination

Bridging security and development

Barking Dogs & Other Sins:
Quality of Life Comparison

Climate Change as a Global Challenge: Mitigation Strategies

Nuclear fuel problems kept secret

The strengthening of faith through religious diversity

Immigrants a scapegoat for blacks' unemployment

Religious and Ethnic Persecution Continues in Iraq

CNN's "Warriors" leaves unanswered questions

NEPAL: Traffickers exploit increased mobility of underage girls

Africa: Marburg is a Global Threat, Says WHO

Attaining the MDGs: Are we really on track?

Africa: Health Care is Key to MDGs, Says UN

Nigeria: Country Can't Meet Health Requirements By 2015 - UN

United Nations development goals at heart of
Merkel's visit with Brown

Managing Globalization:
To reduce poverty, money isn't everything

The name of the game: sustainability

A voice for victims of the sex trade

Parents Help, Sex Can Harm, and Spirituality Benefits Youth

Gender: A New Apartheid?

Clean energy solutions still face obstacles

Joint statement with Chancellor Angela Merkel on International Health Partnership

Easy Scapegoat

The sacred and the human

PERU: Anti-Poverty Plan Shrouded In Mystery

Sanitation the World's Silent Humanitarian Crisis

KENYA: Legislation to Get More Women in Parliament

Islamic Economics: The Total Revolution

Maliki the convenient scapegoat for frustrated US

Energy Outlook: The Long Energy Horizon

Literacy crucial to promoting better health conditions worldwide

The poor world of plenty:
Why are the poorest countries in the world failing
and what can be done about it?

Globalization and Terror

The Case for Fair Trade

No development without gender parity

Her true calling is found: Former journalist moves to ministry

Nun fights gender bias in Buddhism

Terrorism and human security

Maliki, Scapegoat for US Defeat

Consumption and consumer sovereignty

Quality Education The Way Towards Sustainable Future


Editor's Comment: We have come a long way since the 1987 Brundtlant Commission report that defined sustainable development as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." The MDGs may well be the most important project that attempts to make sustainable development a reality. Significant resistance is still apparent in many quarters, in particular with regard to MDG3 -- the promotion of gender equality. But more and more people and institutions are recognizing that sustainable development is the way to go.

As we are about to begin (here in the USA) the 2007-2008 academic year, let's keep in mind that young people are the future. K to K12 boys and girls need to be introduced to sustainability concepts and practices, for they are the ones who will be facing the music as they grow up. Excellent educational materials are becoming available for this purpose. Waiting until the kids go to high school or college is the wrong thing to do. All school districts here in the USA (and their equivalent in other parts of the world, need to have sustainability education as a vital element of their curriculum. Else, 20 or 30 years from now, they will have a legitimate complaint: "We were not prepared for this."


2. The U.N. Millennium Development Goals

The following is a synopsis of the U.N. Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the analysis for each MDG in the January to August 2007 issues:

U.N. Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
Summary of Cumulative SSNV Analyses
Thus far this year, each issue of the newsletter has been focused on analyzing the MDGs, one at a time. However, some basic precedence relations have already been identified, as follows:

Millennium Development Goals

MDG1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty
MDG2: Universal Primary Education
MDG3: Promote Gender Equality
MDG4: Reduce Child Mortality
MDG5: Improve Maternal Health
MDG6: Combat HIV & Other Diseases
MDG7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability
MDG8: Build Global Partnership

Key Drivers

MDG2 MDG3
MDG3
MDG3
MDG1 MDG3
MDG1 MDG3
MDG3
MDG2 MDG3
MDG1 MDG2 MDG3 MDG7

Supporting Evidence

V3 N01 Jan 07
V3 N02 Feby 07
V3 N03 Mar 07
V3 N04 Apr 07
V3 N05 May 07
V3 N06 Jun 07
V3 N07 Jul 07
V3 N08 Aug 07


These precedence relations do not preclude starting on each MDG before any of the others is fully attained. However, they are indicative that some MDGs are "key drivers" for other MDGs. In other words, some MDGs must start, and make significant process, for other MDGs to take off.

One way to represent the overlapping between MDGs is the Venn diagram. The Venn diagram to the right would seem to suggest that MDG3 is the top priority, then MDG1 and MDG2 which directly influence MDG4, MDG5, and MDG6. MDG7 and MDG8 are also high priority MDGs, but cannot be attained without significant progress in MDG1, MDG2, and MDG3. The Venn diagram is a good representation of the overlapping of the MDGs as they are pursued. However, it does not provide any indication of time phasing priorities.

After analyzing the MDGs one at a time, the next step is to consider them all together as a system. Actually, as the preceding summary shows, it is hard to say much about any of them in isolation from the others. But the challenge is to do it in a systematic way that will provide some insight into the dynamics of their interdependencies. In this issue, we attempt an integrated analysis of the MDGs using three methods:

  • The square matrix method to identify precedence-with-overlap information flows among the MDGs (Section 3)
  • The system dynamics method to identify feedback loops and dynamic interaction among the MDGs (Section 4)
  • The use of the mimetic theory of human behavior to analyze social responsiveness to the MDGs (Section 5)


3. Matrix Analysis of MDG Interdependencies

The square matrix analysis of system component interdependencies is a classical method of system analysis. Readers who are not familiar with this method may want to read a brief tutorial before reading this section. Some good references are The Design Structure Matrix Home Page, and papers by Steward, Browning, Eppinger, Yassine et al, and Kusiak. The best software available to support this kind of analysis is Steward's PSM32.

Basically, the square matrix method entails building and NxN square matrix, where N is the number of subsystems in a system. Each subsystem is represented by a row and column in the matrix. A mark in cell (i,j) denotes that subsystem j cannot be fully understood without some information from subsystem i. The precedence relations may be physical (as in a construction project), disciplinary knowledge (as in design integration projects), or any other kind. Notice that a "precedence relation" does not mean that item i should be finished before item j can get started. But it means that item j cannot be finalized until some information of item i is available. The degree of allowable overlap depends on the kind of system being analyzed. It is useful to conceptualize the analysis process in terms of five phases, as follows:

Matrix analysis process:

analysisprocess
Phases of matrix analysis:

1. Identify the information flows required for a given system or project.
2. Assemble the subject matter experts for each of the N information flows.
3. Build the NxN precedence matrix of information flows.
4. Partition the precedence matrix to obtain a block triangular matrix of information integration.
5. Schedule periodic meetings of the subject matter experts to update the matrix as system developments unfold.

In the case of the MDGs, the objective of the analysis is to determine if they are totally independent of each other; else, the objective is to determine which MDGs are "drivers." Specifically, is MDG pair (i,j) one in which MDG j cannot get started (finished) until MDG i has made some progress? This brings to mind MDG3 which, according to previous analyses, is the main driver of all the other MDGs. Using elementary row and column operations, the analyst (or, preferably, the computer) attempts to find a reordering of the rows and columns such that all the precedence marks are below the diagonal - this means that the entire process can be serialized. Else, the square matrix is reworked into a block-triangular matrix, meaning that all the marks are either below the diagonal or in square blocks around the diagonal. The rows and columns in the square blocks are said to be "tightly coupled" and require concurrent analysis and implementation.

To illustrate, consider the matrices for scenarios A and B below. If the precedence relations among the MDGs are as shown in precedence matrix A, the rows and columns can be sorted so as to have a serial implementation plan. But if the precedence relations are as shown in precedence matrix B, then a serialized plan is not possible, because MDGs 3, 2, 1, 8, and 7 are "tightly coupled" and the issues pursuant to attaining them must be resolved together. In complex social systems, it is very rare to find cases amenable to serialization. And issues that require joint resolution must be resolved together; else, none of the issues has been really resolved.

MDG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1   9 9          
2     9          
3                
4 5   5 *        
5 5   5          
6     5          
7   5 5          
8 9 9 9       9  
Scenario "A" Precedence Matrix
MDG 3 2 6 1 7 4 5 8
3                
2 9              
6 5              
1 9 9            
7 5 5            
4 5     5        
5 5     5        
8 9 9   9 9      
Scenario "A" Partitioned Matrix
Figure 1 - Precedence and Partitioned Matrices for MDG Scenario "A"
Click on the cell numbers to view the information applicable to a MDG-MDG pair

MDG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1   9 9          
2 9   9          
3 5 5           5
4 1 1 5          
5 1 1 5          
6 1 1 5          
7   5 5         5
8 9 9 9       9  
Scenario "B" Precedence Matrix
MDG 3 1 2 8 7 4 5 6
3     5 5 5      
1 9   9          
2 9 9            
8 9 9 9   9      
7 5   5 5        
4 5 1 1          
5 5 1 1          
6 5 1 1          
Scenario "B" Partitioned Matrix
Figure 2 - Precedence and Partitioned Matrices for MDG Scenario "B"
Click on the cell numbers to view the information applicable to a MDG-MDG pair

The cells on the diagonal are black, meaning that each MDG feeds on itself. Blank cells denote mutually independent MDG-MDG pairs. Cells with marks denote precedence dependencies between MDGs. The marks can be any symbol, but there are many variations to accommodate the nature of the dependencies. If all dependencies are to be considered of equal weight, a simple "X" can be used. If some dependencies are known to have more weight than others, numbers can be used; for instance, Figures 1 and 2 show a numerical scale for dependencies going from 1 (minor) to 9 (major).

But the most critical step in this kind of analysis is to substantiate each mark with the best available evidence-based information. In this regard, a good practice is to make each mark a link to the supporting information on the web. The link can be to a single web page or to a web page showing a directory of links containing relevant information. These links can and should change as the analysis unfolds and, ideally, the links in the partitioned matrix should be to single web pages that contain synopses of the rationale for the MDG to MDG precedence relations and identify degree of overlap, sources, variations, exceptions, etc. When this is done, the matrix becomes a roadmap for the information flows that are required (at this point, popups containing the synoptic information may be more useful as long as they are not too large). The square matrix method also provides an excellent tool to support workshops in which all stakeholders can provide input as to "what is needed to when, by whom, and for whom" so as to shorten the timeline and avoid waste of resources in pursuing the MDGs. The black cells on the diagonal can also be linked to URLs or popups with content pertaining to a given MDG.


4. MDG Loop Diagrams & Feedback Dynamics

The square matrix analysis method illustrated in the previous section is essentially static. It provides a snapshot of system structure at a given point in time. Thus, in any long-term program, periodic workshops are needed (with representatives of all the relevant specialties in attendance) in order to update the matrix as the program unfolds. The advent of computer simulation methods in the late 1950s and early 1960s provided the opportunity to analyze complex systems as they behave over time. Such behavior is generated by the feedback loop structure of the system, which must be redesigned if system behavior is to improve. Specifically, when using the system dynamics method, the five phases of system analysis are the following:

Dynamic analysis process:

analysisprocess
Phases of dynamic analysis:

1. Plotting and analyze the problematic modes of system behavior over time.
2. Building a causal loop diagram to describe how system variables interact.
3. Building a stock and flow diagram to formulate the simulation model.
4. Run simulations to verify and validate the system diagrams for the current system.
5. Modify the feedback loop geometry & test for system behavior improvement.

Some readers may prefer to read a short tutorial of this method before proceeding to a dynamic analysis of the MDGs. Other useful references are the MIT System Dynamics Home Page, the Road Maps for Learning System Dynamics, and the classical paper by Jay W. Forrester, Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems. The System Dynamics Mega Link List provides a survey of models and applications for many kinds of systems.

For a dynamic analysis of the MDGs, the best starting point is the work by Willard R. Fey and Ann C. W. Lam of Ecocosm Dynamics, Ltd. Specifically, they have coined the term ecocosm paradox for the following dilemma:

  • If human consumption growth continues, the planetary life support system will be disabled and humanity will itself become endangered.
  • If consumption growth is stopped, the viability of the world's economic and financial systems will be threatened, and the stability of governments and society will deteriorate.
We have discussed this dilemma as an intrinsic issue of the sustainable development process. The issue of balancing economic growth and environmental sustainability will be most critical during the transition from short-term growth to long-term sustainability. Are there any proposals on how to accomplish this balancing act? One possibility is suggested in Figure 3:

ecocosmparadox-ext
Figure 3 - Fey & Lam's Ecocosm Paradox extended with George's SeD Tresholds.
Fey & Lam's ecocosm paradox diagram is reproduced with permission.
George's SeD thresholds are UGPI (Universal Guaranteed Personal Input)
and MAPW (Maximum Allowable Personal Wealth).

Robley E. George, of the Center for the Study of Democratic Societies, has proposed two principles for a socioeconomic democracy:

  • Universally Guaranteed Personal Income (UGPI): "Each participant in this democratic socioeconomic system would know that, regardless of what he or she did or did not do, a democratically determined UGPI would always be available. Put another way, society would guarantee each citizen some minimum amount of purchasing power, with that amount determined democratically by all of society and with citizenship the only requirement for eligibility to participate."
  • Maximum Allowable Personal Wealth (MAPW): "All participants of the democratic socioeconomic system would understand that all personal material wealth above the democratically determined allowable among would, by due process, be transferred out of their ownership and control in a manner specified by the democratically designed and implemented laws of the land."

Figure 3 suggests a way in which the thresholds UGPI and MAPW might temper any excessive optimism and any excessive pessimism about global issues such as global warming, resource depletion, and the rich-poor gap. The suggestion is that having an UGPI should stimulate the consumption of necessities by those who have no other sources of income. The MAPW, on the other hand, would moderate both the accumulation of non-necessities and the seemingly inevitable consumption of non-necessities that is generated by the excessive (sometimes extravagant) accumulation of non-necessities. Thus the "plus" sign on the arrow leading from UGPI to "per capita consumption" and the "minus" sign in the arrow leading from MAPW to "per capita consumption."

In his book, Socioeconomic Democracy: An Advanced Socioeconomic System, George identifies many reasons for the MAPW to be good for both society and environment. In the same book, he presents the case for some form of UGPI that fosters distributive justice and steers consumption patterns toward sanity. To the extent that wealth is a measure of human well-being, there is also the concept of sustainable wealth, which integrates wealth and sustainability as defined by the 1987 Brundtland Commission's report Our Common Future: Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (see chapter 2, item 1).

Going back to the MDGs, the UGPI and MAPW could have many positive effects:

MDG1 - UGPI could ensure that everyone can satisfy the basic necessities of life: food, shelter, clothing, etc.
MDG2 - UGPI could bring balance to schooling for both boys and girls, men and women, K to K20+.
MDG3 - MAPW could induce religious institutions to limit wealth accumulation and embrace gender equality.
MDG4 - MAPW could increase if wealth is spent on health for poor children - an incentive to give more.
MDG5 - MAPW could increase if wealth is spent on health for poor mothers - an incentive to give more.
MDG6 - MAPW could increase if wealth is spent on health for the poor - an incentive to give more.
MDG7 - UGPI & MAPW could combine to steer people toward healthier consumption and ensure sustainability.
MDG8 - A global UGPI & MAPW could combine with national-local UGPIs & MAPWs to foster human solidarity.

A book could be written about these and other possibilities. Hopefully, the UGPI and MAPW policy concepts will increase awareness about our ignorance about how to do long-term planning for the MDGs and, eventually, sustainable peace and justice


5. Mimetic Analysis of the MDG Process

A synopsis of mimetic theory has been provided in a previous issue and just a brief refresher will be given here. Mimesis provides a general explanation of social behavior and cultural evolution. The mimetic ("imitative") nature of human decisions and actions follows a cyclical pattern that includes five phases: mimetic desire, mimetic rivalry, disruptive escalation, scapegoating, and violent resolution. There may be overlaps and variations, but it is useful to think about these phases both individually and as an integrated process. In summary:

Mimetic Process

analysisprocess

The mimetic process is basically the same at all levels of power, and for all kinds of rivalries and competitions. It explains conflicts over religion, gender, sex, politics, attention, money, properties, power, ethnicity, etc. Any given conflict, at any given point in time, is in one of the five phases of the mimetic process, which repeats itself like a vicious cycle. The only way to break the vicious cycle is to renounce the use of violence.

Phases of the mimetic process:

1. Mimetic desire - can be physical or metaphysical, entails a person/group desiring what another person/group has.
2. Mimetic rivalry - can be friendly competition, becomes rivalry when either person/group refuses to share.
3. Disruptive escalation - competition escalates and becomes disruptive of social harmony and a threat to the authorities.
4. Scapegoating - to avoid facing the "politically incorrect" crisis, blame for the disruption is assigned to a given. person/subgroup
5. Violent resolution - the scapegoat person/subgroup is punished to restore harmony and preserve authority structures. Violence can take many forms, from killing the scapegoat to stonewalling the conflict resolution process by invoking higher authority, which then becomes the scapegoat (this is somewhat similar to what is commonly known as "passing the buck").

All the five phases are ubiquitous in the process of working toward the MDGs. Let's focus on the "scapegoating" phase. Even though we are just at the midpoint in the timeline toward the goals established for 2015, any indication of slow progress is "politically incorrect" and requires finding a person/group that can be blamed for the failure of those who have responsibility and authority to get things going. There are plenty of vulnerable persons/groups around, so pointing fingers in one direction is never too difficult. For good examples we just have to take a look at the news:

MDG1 - The rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer, because the poor are lazy.
MDG2 - Girls are kept out of school because religious traditions have a mindset of male supremacy.
MDG3 - Catholic women are denied ordination because Christ has not authorized the Vatican to ordain them.
MDG4 - If child mortality rate remains high, it is because most doctors are only interested in making money.
MDG5 - If maternal mortality rate remains high, it is because nurses are only interested in making money.
MDG6 - The HIV/AIDS epidemic cannot be abated because homosexual sex is an abomination.
MDG7 - Unsustainable development persists because people are not diligent in recycling pollution.
MDG8 - A global partnership for development cannot be attained because terrorists have WMDs.

For more examples, go to Google News and enter "scapegoat." Mimetic theory is a powerful tool that can be used for social analysis and social development. As any other tool, it can be misused, either intentionally or unintentionally, by people/groups seeking revenge against those they hate for whatever reason. Scapegoating is easy. But analysis of scapegoating behavior must be evidence-based. Is there a chronic pattern of scapegoating behavior by a person/group? Is the situation one in which those with authority and responsibility would be embarrassed if their negligence or their reasons for refusing to act is exposed? Is the scapegoating a way to cover-up for crimes against those who are weak and vulnerable, especially children? If the answer to these questions is in the affirmative, scapegoating has become an obstacle to human development and should be confronted, "with velvet gloves and iron hands." And, it seems reasonable to anticipate that, as we get closer to 2015, there will be a lot of scapegoating about not being able to attain the MDGs.


6. Review of the "Millennium Project" Website

There are many web sites related to global issues to be faced during the 21st century, especially within the UN systems. One of the most interesting is the Millennium Project on global futures studies and research. It functions under the auspices of the World Federation of United Nations Associations (WFUNA), an "independent, non-governmental organization with Category One Consultative Status at the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) and consultative or liaison links with many other UN organizations and agencies." The following is a high level synopsis of the Millennium Project web site:

The Millennium Project
World Federation of UN Associations
wfunalogo

The Millennium Project is sponsored by the World Federation of UN Associations (WFUNA). The WFUNA website states: "Inspired by the opening words of the United Nations Charter "We the Peoples", the World Federation of United Nations Associations was established in 1946 as a peoples’ movement for the United Nations."
SOF2007
The State of the Future (SOF) is the flagship publication of the Millennium Project. Published annually since 1996, the 2007 SOF (recently published) is the eleventh edition.
millprojwfuna
Each blue box in the rectangular logo (at the top of the front page) of the the Millennium Project web site is a link to a section of information content. This provides the experienced visitor with a convenient shortcut to the information of interest, but the first time visitor may get lost clicking on the links in random order. The best navigation path for the first time visitor might be to start with "What's New" and then proceed counterclockwise. For the numerically inclined, one of the most interesting sections is the State of the Future Index (SOFI). The 29 factors included are listed below. SOFI projections do not constitute formal statistical inference at a given confidence level. But, in exposing the rationale for the number crunching, useful insights emerge.
Current Nodes:
Argentina (Buenos Aires)
Australasia (Melbourne)
Azerjaijan (Baku)
Belgium (Brussels)
Brazil (Sao Paulo)
Canada (Montreal)
China (Beijing)
Cyber-Collaboration
Czech Rep (Prague)
Egypt (Cairo)
Finland (Helsinki)
France (Paris)
Germany (Berlin)
Gulf Region (Kuwait)
India (New Delhi)
Iran (Tehran)
Italy (Rome)
Japan (Tokyo)
Korea (Seoul)
Mexico (Mexico City)
Russia (Moscow)
Slovenia (Bratislava)
South Africa (Pretoria)
Turkey (Istanbul)
UK (London)
Venezuela (Caracas)
USA (Silicon Valley)
USA (Washington DC)

According to the website home page, "the Millennium Project of WFUNA is a global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities .... The purpose of the Millennium Project is to be an international utility to assist in organizing futures research by continuously updating and improving humanity's thinking about the future and making that thinking available for feedback as a geographically and institutionally dispersed think tank."

The website serves as point of convergence for integrating an enormous amount of information, data, and insights that continuously emerge from a worldwide network of 27 research nodes, including the central node in Washington, DC. This array of resources is coordinated by Jerome C. Glenn, Director of the Millennium Project. A review of the resources available in the other 26 nodes dispels any notion about them being informal groups of flaky "futurists" with tennis shoes. The caliber of the node members (see their resumes and affiliations), and the research and educational activities undertaken each year, makes this one of the best "special forces" in the struggle to overcome the most critical global issues facing humanity.

Links to the sections where the content resides are provided at the top of the front page:

There are a number of additional links at the bottom of the front page. Most of them are redundant with the main navigation paths listed above. Others seem to be old and lead to pages that cannot be found. This may be a temporary result of the recent porting of the web site from the AC/UNU server to the WFUNA server.

By far the most informative and insightful content is the annual State of the Future (SOF) report, which has now been produced by a team directed by Jerome C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon for eleven consecutive years. The 2007 State of the Future (SOF2007) report has been published, and both the Executive Summary and the Table of Contents are free downloads. The full report comes with a CD and can be ordered for $49.95. This may exceed the budget of many scholars, which is unfortunate.

One of the most useful information gateways provided by this web site is the Futures Matrix, which provides links to information content relevant to several dimensions of the Global Challenges. On the other hand, since the WFUNA Millennium Project is fully supportive of the MDGs, it is surprising not to find a mapping between the 8 MDGs and the 15 Global Challenges. Figure 4 shows one possible way to build such a mapping. The rows are Global Challenges, the columns are MDGs. The marks in the cells could be links to knowledge content that is relevant to both the Global Challenges and the MDGs. But please note that Figure 4 is just a straw man, not a fully analyzed matrix with links to information sources.

15 GCs vs. 8 MDGs MDG1 MDG2 MDG3 MDG4 MDG5 MDG6 MDG7 MDG8
GC01. Sustainable development   X X       X X
GC02. Clean water supply X     X X   X  
GC03. Population & resources X   X X   X X  
GC04. Democratization process   X X       X X
GC05. Long-term planning   X X       X  
GC06. Global ICT network   X           X
GC07. Minimum rich-poor gap X   X         X
GC08. Health issues X   X X X X   X
GC09. Decision-making capability   X X       X X
GC10. Peace & conflict management     X       X X
GC11. Gender equality   X X   X X X X
GC12. Transnational crime     X     X   X
GC13. Energy supply & demand             X X
GC14. Science & tech breakthroughs             X  
GC15. Global ethics X   X X X   X X
Figure 4 - Information Intersections between the Global Challenges and the MDGs
Click on the cell Xs to view the information applicable to a GC-MDG pair
(this is just an example - life links have not been inserted)

A classical square matrix analysis (see Section 3) also could be done for the 15 Global Challenges. Figure 5 shows an example of precedence and partitioned matrices. Again it is noted that these are just straw man examples. The marks in the matrix are bogus. It is simply suggested here that the resulting roadmap of information content (links in the black diagonal cells) and information flows (links in the non-diagonal cells) might be useful for a future edition of the SOF. If the 15x15 matrix is sparse (recommended at the beginning of the analysis) there is a higher probability of obtaining either a triangular or block-triangular matrix, as shown in Figures 1 and 2 for the MDGs. If the 15x15 matrix is too dense, then the entire matrix may turn out to be a block. But, as noted in Figure 5, it still can be very useful to identify smaller nested blocks of GCs that share a lot of the same information. If the small blocks are resolved first, then the larger blocks becomes more amenable to analysis as a total system.

GC 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
01     9 9 5 1 5   5 1 9   5   5
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