Survey on Education for Sustainable Development (ESD)
Revisiting Version 1, Planning Version 2, and System Scenarios
1. Overview of the ESD Version 1 Series
The Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) research project is moving forward as a series of surveys to identify ESD requirements based on the critical issues that sustainable developers must be ready to face. During the year 2009, survey test versions V0 to V1.7 were posted. The 2009 series was structured around the "key action themes" proposed by UNESCO for the "Decade of Education for Sustainable Development" (2005-2014):
The Version 1 survey design was based on:
- Paulo Freire's educational model of recursive questions and answers
- Ken Wilber's integral model of experience, behavior, systems, and cultures
- René Girard's mimetic theory of scapegoating behavior
- Note: For a complete description of the design evolution, click here
Participation:
- As of 24 April 2009, 61 persons had taken the V0 test survey.
- As of 27 May 2009, 129 persons had taken the V1 test survey.
- As of 27 June 2009, 263 persons had taken the V1.5 test survey.
- As of 31 July 2009, 513 persons had taken the V1.6 test survey.
- As of 29 August 2009, 36 persons had taken the V1.7 test survey.
It is acknowledged that this initial series of surveys was a learning exercise. The survey's basic design was stable, but the questions were revised for each version based on the participants' feedback from the previous section. For this reason, convergence of the questionnaire to an optimal combination of brevity, neutrality, and coverage was still inconclusive when, at the end of August 2009, the exercise was stopped due to evidence of "survey fatigue." Links to the forms, data, and analyses for the initial series of surveys can be found in the following journal issues:
Analysis and synthesis highlights for the 2009 series of surveys are provided in sections 2 and 3. Section 4 is a "revised final report" based on additional analysis and synthesis of the "lessons learned" during the ESD Survey V1, and this provides the bridge for redesigning and planning ESD Survey Version 2 (sections 5 to 8).
2. Highlights of the V1 Analysis Reports
Readers who might be interested in browsing the histograms of results for each question in each V1 update can find them by browsing the major links listed in section 1. This section will focus on the analysis of interdependencies among MDGs, ESD themes, and integral human development (IHD). For traceability of this analysis to the 1004 responses received from the respondents, click here.
The ESDs and MDGs 1, 2, 3, 7 and 8 contribute to IHD. MDGs 4, 5, and 6 allow IHD to happen but do not really make them happen, since they pertain to the bottom layer of Maslow's hierarchy. Therefore, in the context of the interdependency analysis and synthesis of ESDs and MDGs, IHD would fit in between MDG3 and MDG4, as shown in the following 17x17 matrix:
When IHD is inserted in the matrix, and new block (violet background) is created that includes all the ESDs, MDGs 1, 2, 3, 7 and 8, and IHD. For IHD, the critical MDGs are 1, 2, 3, 7, and 8 together albeit not necessarily in this order. Conversely, as IHD increases it reinforces these MDGs and all the ESDs. When IHD increases it also decreases infant mortality, maternal mortality, and HIV and other epidemics, which in turn allow the number of people who can potentially attain IHD to increase even more. The core engine for this sustainable development process is the block of IHD and MDGs 1, 2, 3, 7, and 8. ESD is the fuel that allows the sustainable development process to keep moving forward.
This matrix is a concise representation of all the interdependencies between the ESDs, between the MDGs, and between the ESDs and MDGs. The yellow block includes all the ESD themes, which should be integrated together such that every theme includes dependencies on all the other themes; otherwise, the order in which they are listed is not essential. The next block around the diagonal (red) includes MDGs 1, 8, 2, 7, and 3; and includes nested blocks for MDGs 1, 8, 2, and 7 (blue) and MDGs 1 and 8 (green). The lowest block down the diagonal (orange) includes MDGs 4, 5, and 6. The blocks around the diagonal identify the ESDs/MDGs that are tightly coupled and must be resolved together. This block-triangular matrix was derived (using Don Steward's PSM32 software tool) by setting up a 16x16 square matrix -- with the rows and columns being the eight ESDs and the eight MDGs -- and entering marks in those cells for which the column item provides input to the row item. Then the matrix is partitioned via row and column operations so as to identify the blocks of that should be worked out together. The arrows are added to show that there is a feedback loop between ESDs and MDGs as the sustainable development process unfolds.
3. Synthesis of the V1 Analysis Reports
The Version 1 Final Report includes text processing analysis and synthesis of the 1004 responses for each ESD theme. A summary of the results is as follows:
- Education for gender equality
Survey results show that a surprising number of respondents are not fully aware of the importance of gender equality for ESD and IHD. Among those who are aware, very few have concrete proposals on how to foster the required cultural change. High ESD priorities: 1. Show the negative social impact of patriarchal structures. 2. Make clear the understanding that gender equity is better for everyone. 3. Make it clear that boys and girls must have the same opportunities for integral human development. 4. Explore ways to withdraw public subsidies from patriarchal institutions (both secular and religious).
- Education for health promotion
The majority of respondents assert that health care is both highly desired by everyone and mostly ignored by everyone. Everybody wants to get good health care, but nobody wants to work for it or pay for it. High ESD priorities: 1. Education on the need to stay healthy and the importance of promoting prevention. 2. Discuss how to provide free or affordable health care for poor citizens. 3. Discuss how to increase health care tax exceptions for poor citizens, and decrease them for wealthy citizens.
- Education for environmental stewardship
Practically all respondents expressed awareness about the gravity of the planet's environmental deterioration. Environmental abuse must be reversed to ensure the viability of human civilization. High ESD priorities: 1. Develop educational materials on the environment for all school levels. 2. Show ways to reduce the business practice of treating environmental costs as "externalities" that are not reported as business costs. 3. Show how to formulate tax incentives for businesses that use the "triple bottom line" and use environmental management standards such as ISO-14000.
- Education for rural development
Many of the responses show ambivalence about rural development. Some respondents point to the fact that most people already live in urban areas today, and the projections are for the percentage to increase worldwide in the decades ahead. On the other hand, the need to shorten supply chains to save on transportation costs is seldom mentioned. High ESD priorities: 1. Discuss ways to balance allocation of resources (schools, hospitals, leisure, etc.) to rural and urban areas. 2. Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of producing food within urban areas. 3. Discuss strategies to have more smaller cities so that rural areas are not isolated.
- Education for cultural diversity
All the responses support the idea that cultural diversity fuels both SD and IHD. There is also strong consensus that an appreciation for cultural diversity cannot be taught in courses. Experiencing cultural diversity is required. High ESD priorities: 1. Show historical cases in which cultural diversity was not tolerated, and the consequences. 2. Idem when cultural diversity was tolerated, and the consequences. 3. Idem when cultural diversity was highly valued, and the consequences.
- Education for peace and human security
This is widely recognized as the core issue of sustainable development. But it is not widely recognized that peace starts with cross-gender solidarity and security starts with cross-gender security. High ESD priorities: 1. Show how gender discrimination leads to other forms of discrimination and injustice, which in turn lead to both social and environmental injustice. 2. Show how gender violence leads to other forms of violence and war, often disguised as the need for resources and land. 3. Build precedence diagrams that show the root causes that lead to violence.
- Education for sustainable urbanization
As the population of a city (including suburbs) increases arithmetically, the financial and environmental costs increase geometrically. High ESD priorities: 1. Explore concepts for balancing resources between urban and rural areas. 2. Explore ways to incentivize the development of more small cities (<1M, perhaps <500K people). 3. Explore ways to shorten supply chains between cities and between cities and rural areas. 4. Show comparisons of financial and environmental costs of mass transit systems versus individual commuting by car.
- Education for sustainable consumption
There can be no doubt that excessive consumption (consumerism) is the main observable barrier to sustainable development (and, in particular, IHD) even though deeper (and unobservable) causes drive consumption. High ESD priorities: 1. Convince people that excessive consumption is bad for them and others. 2. Convince people that the extremes of excessive consumption by some and the impossibility of meeting basic human needs by most is a time bomb that will explode. 3. Show how to apply the methods of ecological economics to calculate budgets of sustainable consumption by SIC code.
The theme by theme syntheses are now augmented with the same kind of text processing analysis of the 1004 responses for all ESD themes together (a 3 MG chunk of text):
WORDLE word collage based on 1004 responses to a survey on ESD requirements conducted from April to August, 2009. The size of each word is proportional to the frequency of ocurrence in the responses. To see a larger image of the collage, click here. For more on this survey, and links to the survey forms and analysis reports, click here and here.
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At this aggregate level, a new synthesis and new questions emerge. The collage of words shown above would seem to indicate that "education for rural development" is the most crucial requirement of education for sustainable development. This is significant in that rural development is tightly coupled to the sustainability of ecosystem services (see section 4.3). Among other requirements frequently mentioned by the survey respondents are education on health, natural resources, and the environment. Both "human" and "people" show up with prominence, suggesting the importance of the human/social dimension. This includes human behavior ("consumption") and the need to avoid global generalizations that ignore local issues and cultures ("areas"). It is noteworthy that "gender" shows up with less prominence. A reluctance to deal with gender issues is not really surprising, given the continued influence of cultural and religious taboos on matters of human sexuality. Could this also be the reason for "population" to be barely visible in the collage?
4. Gaps in Education for Sustainable Development
One of the goals of the ESD Survey Version 1 was to attain complete coverage of all issues related to sustainable development. A lesson learned is that this is a practical impossibility, since there is no human/social issue that is not related to the sustainable development process. Nevertheless, by grounding the design in the eight UNESCO ESD themes, significant coverage was achieved. There were also lessons learned regarding the need for brevity (should take a maximum of 30 minutes unless the participant want to spend more) and neutrality (bias should be minimized to the extent that this is possible when dealing with controversial issues).
The preceding analysis of the aggregated responses to ESD Survey Version 1, and the
book review of State of the World 2010: Transforming Cultures from Consumerism to Sustainability (Worldwatch Institute, January 2010) brought to mind an alternative approach to surveying ESD requirements: what about focusing on requirements for current gaps in ESD? Based on all the evidence gathered from the V1 participants, and a recent review of the 2009/2010 documents listed in the PelicanWeb links directory, it seems reasonable to infer that ESD has yet to fill the following educational gaps:
- Gap 1 is education on the cultural barriers that keep blocking the transition from consumerism to sustainability
There is wide consensus on the need for this transition, but a paucity of means to motivate behavior modification. Most people still do not understand what they will gain and still fear what they will lose.
- Gap 2 is education on population growth and gender equality issues in both the secular and religious dimensions
There is wide consensus on the need to mitigate population growth, but reluctance to discuss gender equality as the only solution compatible with human freedom and self-determination.
- Gap 3 is education on how to make both rural and urban development compatible with the sustainability of ecosystem services
There seems to be little dialogue between rural/urban developers and the ecologists and/or natural resource managers who understand the criticality of ecosystem services and how to manage them for sustainability.
- Gap 4 is education on the need for interdisciplinary research to foster "knowledge without borders" in sustainable development
Interdisciplinary knowledge integration needs to become a discipline itself, perhaps following the "specialty integration" or "design integration" practices that has been instrumental in developing complex technological systems.
- Gap 5 is education on the proper role of systems modeling/simulation in support of sustainable development policy making
Understanding and managing the global "web of life" as a complex system requires system modeling and simulation methods in order to capture integrated knowledge and support the formulation, implementation, and monitoring of integrated policies.
These gaps are illustrated by the matrix and text processing analyses of sections 2 and 3. Cultural barriers are often mentioned, but the need for integrated human development to overcome such cultural barriers is seldom mentioned. Making progress toward gender equality is prescribed by both the UN MDGs and the UNESCO ESDs as a precondition for sustainable development, but people are reluctant to even mention the issue. Most people recognize that ecosystem services are indispensable for the survival of human civilization, but they are rarely mentioned by rural and urban developers. The need for data and knowledge integration is by now a given in the profit sector (industrial R&D, manufacturing, lifecycle maintenance, customer care) but most national and world leaders still rely on "politics and usual" and declarations that are long in finger pointing but short on substance. There is abundant funding for climate change models and other system models that stay close to the physical and economic subsystems, but little support for modeling the human-intensive, behavioral and social subsystems that will determine whether or not the transition from consumerism to sustainability can be attained in a civilized manner.
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These critical educational gaps will be the focal point for the ESD Survey Version 2. Please provide feedback to the editor if you disagree that these are the most critical gaps in current ESD programs and practices.
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5. Proposed Redesign for ESD Survey Version 2.0
Let us provisionally assume (pending feedback from the readers that the five ESD gaps identified in the previous section are worthy of futher investigation. What are the education requirements to close those five gaps? The following is a proposed instrument for ESD Survey Version 2.0"
Education for Sustainable Development (ESD)
Survey Version 2.0
Introduction
Welcome to the Pelican Web ESD Survey Version 2.0!
The objective of this survey is to identify gaps in education for sustainable development. The survey is intended primarily for the sustainable development researchers and practioners, but also indirectly for the policy makers and global citizens. The ultimate goal is to identify priority improvements in education for sustainable development. This survey is an independent initiative of Pelican Web. It is not sponsored by the United Nations or any other institution.
The seven sections of the questionnaire include a total of 21questions. If possible, please answer all the questions. Else, focus on those sections/questions for which you have experience or strong opinions, and the sections/questions that are less related to your professional experience or personal interest. The survey sections/questions pertain to improving the content of ESD programs with regard to:
1. The human (behavioral) dimension of sustainable development
2. Promotion of gender equality as a precondition for sustainable development
3. Protection of ecosystem services as required for sustainability
4. The use of system analysis and simulation modeling tools to plan for sustainable development
5. The use of both quantitative and qualitative data to plan for sustainable development
6. Sustainable development policy formulation methods (who, what, when, where)
7. Sustainable development policy marketing methods (why, motivation, follow-up)
Questions or comments concerning this survey can be addressed to the Pelican Web Editor.
Make sure to press "submit" at the end for your answers to be added to the database.
ESD Survey Version 2.0
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Enter your Name (Optional)
Enter your Country (Optional but highly desirable)
Enter your profesional affiliation and web site (Optional but highly desirable)
Enter your role in sustainable development (Optional but highly desirable)
E-Mail address (Optional but necessary if you wish to receive the survey results and reports)
SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE
1. The human (behavioral) dimension of sustainable development
[section description]
1.1 Do you agree that consumerist human behavior is a significan obstacle to sustainable development?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
1.2 Should ESD include evidence that mitigating/adapting consumption for sustainability is good for both humanity and the human habitat?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
1.3 Should ESD provide training on how to motivate people to practice sustainable consumption?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
2. Promotion of gender equality as a precondition for sustainable development
[section description]
2.1 Do you agree that attaining gender equality is a precondition for sustainable development
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
2.2 Should ESD include evidence that gender equality is a precondition for sustainable development?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
2.3 Should ESD provide training on how to motivate people to promote gender equality?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
3. Protection of ecosystem services as required for sustainability
[section description]
3.1 Do you agree that sustainable ecosystem services are indispensable for sustainable development?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
3.2 Should ESD include evidence on why ecosystem services are instrumental for sustainable development?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
3.3 Should ESD provide training on how to manage ecosystem services for sustainability?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
4. The use of system analysis and simulation modeling tools to plan for sustainable development
[section description]
4.1 Do you agree that the "humanity-human habitat" system is too complex to be managed?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
4.2 Should ESD include evidence on the proper/improper use of system analysis/modeling tools?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
4.3 Should ESD provide training on how to use of system analysis/modeling tools?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
5. The use of both quantitative and qualitative data (objective evidence) to plan for sustainable development
[section description]
5.1 Do you agree that both empirical and experiential data are needed for ESD?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
5.2 Should ESD include evidence on the proper/improper use of empirical/experiential data?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
5.3 Should ESD provide training on how to use system analysis/modeling tools properly?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
6. Sustainable development policy formulation methods (who, what, when, where)
[section description]
6.1 Do you agree that new policy making methods will be required for sustainable development?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
6.2 Should ESD include evidence on the efficacy of various policy making methods?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
6.3 Should ESD provide training on what policy making methods to use at the local, national, and global levels?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
7. Sustainable development policy marketing methods (why, motivation, follow-up)
[section description]
7.1 Do you agree that new policy marketing methods will be required for sustainable development?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
7.2 Should ESD include evidence on the efficacy of various policy marketing methods?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
7.3 Should ESD provide training on what policy marketing methods to use at the local, national, and global levels?
Yes No Don't know [select one]
Please explain your selection [enter answer free format]
REMEMBER to click on "submit" for your answers to be added to the database.
THANKS for taking time to do the survey!
Editor, Pelican Web
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It is anticipated that this survey form will be made available via Google Docs, as in Version 1. All the journals subscribers and others who participated in the Version 1 survey will be invited to participate. The time window for the survey to be accessible online is May to September 2010. For brevity, only the 21 selection questions will be required. It should be possible to make these 21 selections in less that 30 minutes. Participants who can afford to expend more time can also enter their free format explanations to elaborate on their selections. The survey will not be released until testing and feedback provides assurance that all the participants during the stated time window will be taking exactly the same survey.
6. Emerging Megatrends and System Dynamics
Surveys are like snapshots. They provide useful information about issues and concerns at a given point in time. A series of periodic surveys can provide additional insight by revealing how the prevalent set of issues and concerns evolve over time. For instance, a survey that is replicated annually for 20 consecutive years may reveal some significant trends such as continued growth, continued decline, or periodic fluctuations. But it is dificult to sustain a 20-year long time series of surveys and ensure that apples counted 20 years ago are not compared with oranges counted in the latest survey.
Furthermore, trend analysis is not merely a matter of extrapolating the past into the future. There are many situations in which the past is not a reliable predictor of the future. This is especially true when human behavior is the main driver of a trend or set of trends. Indeed, Homo sapiens sapiens can display changes in behavior even when this means overcoming "resistance to change." Human behavior modification may be voluntary or involuntary -- people may decide on their own that change is in order, or external factors (such as "mother nature") may help them in freely deciding to change course even when there is no coercion, i.e., even when individual self-determination prevails.
Megatrends
The term "megatrends" was coined by John Naisbitt in his 1982 book, Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives. See also Megatrends 2000 by John Naisbitt and Patricia Alburdene, and Megatrends 2010: The Rise of Conscious Capitalism by Patricia Alburdene. The term refers to the most dominant and pervasive trends during a given period of time. Exponential population and economic growth were the most notorious "megatrends" of the 20th century.
But sustainable development cannot possibly be a mere extrapolation of exponential growth as we have experienced during the last 100 years or so. It is simply absurd to assume that population and consumption can keep growing exponentially forever in a finite planet. The world is not coming to an end, but a transition from consumerism (consumption is growing faster than population!) to sustainability is both inevitable and desirable. For there is abundant evidence that human wellbeing is about "being more" rather than "consuming more." There are limits to material consumption, but there are no limits to human development in terms of education, wisdom, human relations, and the inner journey.
Mitigation and Adaptation
The transition from consumerism to sustainability is bound to include both mitigation and adaptation megatrends. Mitigation of material consumption is both ecologically necessary and good for human health. An example is the (hopefully) impending mitigation of CO2 emissions by a massive switch from fossil fuels to clean energy sources such as wind and waves. The implicit goal is to mitigate emissions without any radical change in economic growth and consumption patterns. It may be possible to make consumption more sustainable by balancing rural and urban development, shortening supply chains, designing energy efficient houses and cars, etc.
But it is doubtful that even mitigation of consumption would be enough, as we are probably beyond the point of overshoot in depleting ecological capital. If so, mitigation must be complemented by adaptation, i.e., a transition from a culture of pursuing happiness by "consuming more" to a culture of pursuing happiness by "being more" or, in the words of Thomas Merton, "becoming what we are." Such a transition will require structural changes in the entire fabric of human aspirations and social relations; technological "fixes" won't do.
Stuart Rose has just published a book, Sustainability: A Personal Journey to a Built Sustainable Community, which is highly recommended as a source of sustainability ideas and initiatives for individuals and communities. Other good books are Gill Seyfang's The New Economics of Sustainable Consumption: Seeds of Change and the newly published e-book, Hatched: The Capacity for Sustainable Development, edited by Bob Frame, Richard Gordon and Claire Mortimer.
System Dynamics
System Dynamics is a method of system modeling and simulation that supports analysis of changes in system behavior due to changes in both system parameters (e.g., consumption mitigation factors) and system structure (i.e., cultural adaptations that go beyond mitigation to changes in the nature of human goals and modes of behavior). It may be the best method available to investigate the dynamics of the sustainable development process, especially during the transition from consumerism to sustainability. For more on this modeling and simulation method, see Barry Richmond's Introduction to Systems Thinking.
System Dynamics is, basically, a method for building scenarios about adaptation options. It is both art and science, and discussion continues as to whether it is an "artistic science" or a "scientific art." It is by no means predictive. But it offers a method for both quantitative and qualitative analysis, including analysis of changes in information flows, feedback loop structures, and in the value functions that guide human behavior; in other words, it makes analysis of cultural adaptation possible. The resulting models (or scenarios) are amenable to computer simulation, which is facilitated by several software packages such as STELLA.
Megatrends and System Dynamics
If sustainable development is to be understood and managed so as to minimize human pain, it is indispensable to understand both the megatrends that have brought humanity to the current global mess and the newly emerging mitigation and adaptations megatrends. Some mitigation megatrends, such as substituting fossil fuels by clean energy sources, are already becoming visible. Some possible adaptation megatrends, such as those suggested by Naisbitt, Alburdene, Seyfang, Rose, and others, are more speculative and the best thing to do is to build scenarios for comparative analysis. Such scenarios are usually too complex for mathematical formulation and solution in closed form. But even the most complex scenarios can be programmed for computer simulation using, for example, the System Dynamics method.
Empirically, early identification of some adaptation megatrends might be possible by computer parsing of news sources. For instance, increasing use of a given word or expression in searching news articles might be indicative of emerging trends as to the issues and concerns of the general public. The following examples were obtained by running Google Trends as of 24 February 2010:
Google Trends for "economy" .
Google Trends for "economy, environment"
Google Trends for "economy, environment, energy"
Google Trends for "economy, environment, energy, climate"
Google Trends for "economy, environment, energy, climate, health"
Google Trends for "economy, environment, energy, climate, education"
Google Trends for "economy, environment, energy, climate, food"
Google Trends for "economy, environment, energy, climate, water"
Google Trends for "economy, environment, energy, climate, family"
In each graph, the trend colors are light blue, read, yellow, green, and dark blue for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th terms, respectively. Thus "economy" is light blue, "environment" is red, "energy" is yellow, "climate" is green, and the 5th term is dark blue. The scale is based on the average worldwide search traffic containing the word "economy" in all years. The trends for up to five terms can be plotted together for comparative analysis by entering a comma between each pair of terms.
Not surprisingly, searching for "economy" news is always the most frequent, with a peak in late 2008 for obvious reasons. None of the other terms appears to challenge the economy as the primary concern of people searching the news. Energy comes close, as it is widely recognized that the economy needs energy. Perhaps another exception is "family" (dark blue in the last graph). It is reassuring that family concerns appear to be currently surging. On the other hand, there are no signs of adaptation about balancing economic concerns with environmental, energy, and climate concerns. The result of comparing "economy" and "sustainability" is not encouraging:
Google Trends for "economy" [light blue] and "sustainability" [red]
What about "sustainability" by itself?
Google Trends for "sustainability" [light blue]
Now the light blue trend is the volume of searches on "sustainability" by itself. When sustainability is compared to the economy, the economy wins. But the number of people searching for news about sustainability is also increasing. Is this a newly emerging megatrend? A sign of hope?
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Please contact the Pelican Web Editor if you know about other methods of computerized news parsing.
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In brief, the following are proposed as emerging social adaptation megatrends that are closely related to sustainable development:
- Transitioning from a culture of consumerism to a culture of sustainability
- Struggling for gender equality in all dimensions of human life, both secular and religious
- Seeking a better balance between the material and spiritual needs of human beings
- Searching for a new synthesis between capitalism and socialism, both politically and economically
- Attaining more effective participation of all stakeholders in secular and religious governance
- Balancing rural and urban development in order to shorten supply chains and improve healthcare services
- Upgrading all educational systems to include both knowledge acquisition and learning from experience
It is impossible to manually build scenarios to capture a reasonable range of options and variations in these social megatrends. The System Dynamics method can be helpful. There are other methods for computer-assisted analysis of human intensive systems (for example, see
Janssen,
Timchenko, and
Zgurovsky). In that any of these methods entail the quantification of cultural intangibles, none of them is beyond criticism; but using them is better than ignoring the intangibles that really matter.
7. Linkage to Climate Change Models and Scenarios
Scenarios of social megatrends must be integrated with other scenarios of climate change and other phenomena that can have a significant impact on sustainable development. Specifically regarding linkage to climate change models, see the very comprehensive paper The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, by Richard A. Moss et al., Nature, 11 February 2010. The abstract is a good summary of the current situation in climate change modeling:
"Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community."
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After a review of existing methods for building scenarios of climate change, the article explains a new "parallel process" that will be used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during the current climate assessment cycle (2008-2013):
"The process began with identification of radiative forcing characteristics that support modelling of a wide range of possible future climates. Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were selected from the published literature to provide needed inputs of emissions, concentrations and land use/cover for climate models. In parallel with development of climate scenarios based on the RCPs, new socio-economic scenarios (some consistent with the radiative forcing characteristics used to identify the RCPs and some developed to explore completely different futures and issues) will be developed to explore important socio-economic uncertainties affecting both adaptation and mitigation. Using a variety of tools and methods, such as pattern-scaling, the new socio-economic scenarios will be integrated with the new climate scenarios. New research using the integrated scenarios will explore adaptation, mitigation and other issues such as feedbacks, using consistent assumptions. This research will provide insights into the costs, benefits and risks of different climate futures, policies and socio-economic development pathways."
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The diversity of social and cultural values, the multiplicity of technological options, and the difficulty of building models "using consistent assumptions," makes this a daunting task. Consider the projects identified by the US National Academy of Engineering in the Introduction to the Grand Challenges for Engineering:
Some of these projects overlap with climate change. All of them overlap with complex (and hard to quantify) social and cultural issues. The jury is still out as to whether fully integrated scenarios can be built to explore alternative futures in a manner that is useful at the local, national, and global levels. A more feasible alternative might be to pursue a hierarchy of local, national, and global governance scenarios and supporting models, consistent with the principle of subsidiarity and with full participation by all stakeholders at each level.
8. Request for Information from the White House
For sustainable developers, the road ahead is fuzzy. "Caminante, no hay camino; se hace camino al andar." Solidarity and collaboration will be essential for a civilized transition from consumerism to solidarity. In this regard, it is interesting to consider the "Request for Information" (RFI) issued by the White House on 4 February 2010. These are the links:
The RFI is issued by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and points to the 14 Grand Engineering Challenges defined by the US National Academy of Engineering, but goes beyond requesting information for technological breakthroughs. Responses to this RFI are due April 15, 2010 and must be delivered electronically as an attachment to an e-mail sent to OSTP. Participation is by no means restricted to American citizens. In fact, trying to address climate change management and other such challenges by the USA in isolation from the rest of the world would be an exercise in futility.
The release document mentions the need for "creating an “architecture of participation” that allows many individuals and organizations to contribute to the process of finding solutions to these grand challenges." Surely, each nation would need such an architecture, but a global one is also needed -- global issues will require global solutions.
The Request for Information provides additional background information and instructions, followed by twelve questions. All the questions are relevant to sustainable development, but the following are especially so:
- "What are the appropriate roles of the government, industry, academia and other stakeholders in achieving this challenge, and what new forms of collaboration should be explored? What are the appropriate roles for pre-competitive collaboration and market-based competition?"
- "What are the economic, ethical, legal, and societal issues raised by pursuit of this challenge? What roles are there for researchers and scholars in the humanities and the social and behavioral sciences?"
- "What models, institutions, technologies, and networks would enable broad participation by individuals and organizations in achieving these grand challenges?"
The White House is interested in responses to one or more of the twelve questions, i.e., participants do not have to answer all the questions. It is hoped that many subscribers of this journal will participate. Remember:
Responses to this RFI are due April 15, 2010 and must be delivered electronically as an attachment to an e-mail sent to OSTP.
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