Donald Trump recently threatened that if Iran does not surrender to him, he will destroy Iranian civilization with heavy aerial bombing and leave no trace of the country on the map. This insulting threat – regardless of its military feasibility, which is doubtful and far from the reality of the forty‑day war between the US‑Israel alliance and Iran – reveals a profoundly mistaken worldview shared by Trump and his cabinet. He believes that military power, ultimatums and a commanding tone can impose peace and stability on other nations. In fact, Trump is a “flat‑earther” in the world of politics, living in the age of the James Webb telescope. He believes that crises are simple and linear, and that problems can be solved by shoving them from one place to another like a box.
But the reality of geopolitics, like the Earth itself, is round. In a closed, interconnected system, no crisis suddenly disappears – it merely moves elsewhere. Pressuring Iran through war and crippling sanctions, instead of solving the nuclear issue, simply shifts it to Yemen, Iraq, neighboring countries, and even the heart of Europe. This note demonstrates why Trump’s “peace through war” approach is not only ineffective but more dangerous than the crisis it claims to solve.
Crises do not vanish – they migrate
In his first term, Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, believing he could permanently halt Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. But what actually happened? The nuclear crisis changed its clothes and changed its location. It moved to Yemen, where Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea increased directly after the escalation against Iran. The Yemeni factions sympathetic to Tehran – who see themselves as part of the “Axis of Resistance” – used more advanced weaponry to threaten shipping aligned against Iran. In Iraq, attacks on US bases and the American embassy in Baghdad during 2020‑2021 reached a point where the Iraqi government effectively lost control. According to a UNODC report, after each round of intensified sanctions on Iran, drug trafficking from Iran into Pakistan increases by about 30%. The Afghan opium crisis, instead of being contained, flows through Iran into South Asia.
You are not the center of the world
A flat‑earth worldview in politics always places “self” at the center and treats “others” as peripheral. Trump thinks the United States is so powerful that it can dictate its desired peace without any other player’s cooperation. Three facts seriously challenge this illusion:
- Europe cannot escape a crisis on its doorstep. Escalation with Iran means a new wave of migration to Europe from across the Middle East. Frontex has reported that after every increase in Middle East tensions, illegal crossings via the Western Mediterranean route rise by up to 40%.
- China and Russia fill the vacuum. Every time the US sanctions or threatens a country, Beijing and Moscow step in to deepen their economic and military ties with that nation. Today, Iran is closer to China and Russia than ever before – the exact opposite of Trump’s goal.
- Governments at war with the US become radicalized instead of surrendering. The war with Iran and the assassination of moderate political figures did not cause Iran’s collapse; on the contrary, it empowered military forces, radical grassroots groups, and extraterritorial proxy networks. The result: the enemy Trump wanted to destroy, despite all the damage it has suffered, is now more armed and more cohesive.
War will not lead to peace – it will only postpone it
History is full of examples where “peace through force” led to an even greater catastrophe. The most famous is the Treaty of Versailles (1919). The Allies humiliated Germany, imposed heavy reparations, and disarmed its army. But those actions did not solve the crisis – they merely postponed it in the form of Nazism and World War II, and made it worse by allowing the crisis to spread elsewhere on the round Earth of geopolitics. Trump’s method closely resembles the logic of Versailles 1919: humiliation of the opponent (“destroy Iranian civilization”), imposition of terms from above (lack of serious negotiation with Iran, which led to war), and disregard for regional interdependencies.
The Cold War is another example. Fifty years of “armed peace” between the US and the Soviet Union eventually ended with the collapse of one superpower, and from that collapse emerged today’s authoritarian government in Moscow. The side‑effects of that “armed peace” included the Vietnam War, the Korean War, the Afghanistan War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and more. Now Trump wants to repeat the same path with Iran, but this time in a far more interconnected and tightly woven world, where spillover costs are much higher.
An alternative approach
The geopolitical world is round. If crises are not resolved properly, they will shift from one place to another. So, what should be done? Instead of a “peace through force” strategy – which tries to hide rubbish under the carpet rather than put it in the bin – we must replace it with feedback management. Three practical steps are needed:
- Transparency and clear rules. Instead of vague threats (“we will destroy you, leave no trace”), red lines and mechanisms of punishment and reward must be stated clearly. For example, the 1994 nuclear agreement with North Korea – though it later failed – showed that a clearly defined feedback framework (the Agreed Framework) can reduce tension.
- Include all players – even enemies. The US cannot and will not be able to manage the Iranian crisis alone. China, Russia, Europe, Iran’s allies, and most importantly Iran itself must be part of the solution. The experience of the P5+1 in the JCPOA showed that direct, respectful, and equal‑footing negotiation with Iran is far less costly than direct military confrontation.
- Simulate consequences before acting. Before any military attack, the US should model the crisis and explore non‑aggressive solutions. It should also model how the crisis would shift if pressure is applied and war breaks out. As we saw in the recent US‑Israeli attack on Iran, the crisis has not been resolved – it has merely spread to parts of the Middle East involving oil, gas, energy, and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Earth remains round, even if Trump refuses to accept it
Trump may believe in a “flat Earth” of international politics and imagine that aerial bombing, sanctions, and humiliation can make crises disappear. But the reality is that, just as the Earth has paid no attention to flat‑earthers for billions of years and has always been round, the real world of geopolitics pays no attention to Trump’s flat‑earth beliefs – even if, as he says, he is president of the world’s most powerful army. In a single sentence: the Iranian nuclear crisis will not be solved by war, and in Trump’s imaginary Middle East, peace through force will not be achieved; instead, one crisis will be added to all the previous ones.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Hassan Fattahi holds degrees in basic sciences and engineering sciences. He is a lecturer in physics, astronomy, history of science, and nuclear policy. He is an author in the fields of physics, astronomy, nuclear policy, and development studies in Iran and the world. His primary interest is in nuclear astrophysics. Since 2017 (1396 Persian calendar), he has been a writer for Iran’s most prestigious newspaper as well as other scientific journals. His articles have been published in national and international periodicals. He is the translator of 15 specialized and general books in his areas of interest. He also serves as a consultant to several major publishers in Iran and is actively involved in promoting science education in the country.
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