The End of Population Growth: Reaching Humankind's Planetary Limits
Ugo Bardi
This article was originally published on The Seneca Effect, 9 February 2026
REPUBLISHED WITH PERMISSION
Illustration credit: Club of Rome. Click the image to enlarge.
The new report to the Club of Rome by Ugo Bardi
Global population will be lower in the year 2100 than it is today - one way or another. The transition from relying on pervasive demographic growth to managing global population decline is an opportunity for new policies. If we are wise, those could lead to an era of sustainable prosperity. If we deny and resist the reality, we’ll experience conflict and collapse. In this book, Ugo Bardi explains the causes of the shift and provides case studies that may help us understand how the decline can be a wonderful opportunity rather than an awesome threat. Dennis Meadows – Lead Author: The Limits to Growth
More than 50 years ago, the report to the Club of Rome titled The Limits to Growth caused a stir by generating scenarios that indicated that the growth of the human population would stall in the mid-21st century, and then invert its trend to start a rapid decline. Widely disbelieved at that time, the report turned out to be correct in its main lines. The current situation indicates that we may be close to the moment in which humankind will face the dramatic inversion of a trend that has been lasting for millennia.
In the new report to the Club of Rome, The End of Population Growth, Ugo Bardi revisits old and new scenarios, describes historical cases, examines the current situation, and discusses what could be done to face a situation never experienced by humankind so far.
Some of the questions the new situation brings:
Do we still have an overpopulation problem? Or are we going to collapse and, perhaps, even go extinct?
Were the catastrophistic population predictions of the Club of Rome correct? And if they were, why were they ignored?
What’s causing the end of population growth? Is it because of socio-economic factors? Or is it pollution? Or stress? Or are famines, wars, and pestilences going to do the dirty work?
How fast will the decline happen? Will it be gradual, or are we headed for a rapid “Seneca Cliff”?
Will mass population movements accelerate or buffer the decline in different regions?
How is the economy going to function (if at all) in a condition of rapid population decline? How about supporting the elderly? How about losing the workforce needed to keep society going?
What will be the effect of the population decline on wealth distribution? Will it increase inequality?
Will a population decline ease the global warming problem? Or is it already too late?
Can governments do something to manage the transition? Or will they worsen the situation?
Can we do something to avoid the worst, or is it better to accept what’s coming while remaining human during the decline?
Ugo Bardi: The End of Population Growth Club of Rome, 9 February 2026
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ugo Bardi is emeritus professor of physical chemistry, University of Florence, Italy. He is interested in resource depletion, system dynamics modeling, climate science, and renewable energy. He frequently publishes articles about social and scientific issues on his blog, The Seneca Effect. His most recent book in English is Extracted: How the Quest for Global Mining Wealth is Plundering the Planet (Chelsea Green, 2014). He is also the author of The Limits to Growth Revisited (Springer 2011), and is a member of the Club of Rome.
