"Economics is a philosophy for supplying parasites with an operating system that provides the most efficient means of devouring its host." — Trenz Pruca
Apocalypse Pending — Please Hold
This is an update of my 2019 post of the same title, written in a simpler time when the biggest threat to our sanity was the potential re-election of He-Who-Is-Not-My-President. That original post can be found here.
In 1973, MIT researchers fed a lot of early computer data into a model called World3 and asked:
“How long can industrial-era humans keep partying like we have infinite planets?”
World3 replied:
“About another 70 years.”
Which gave us a number: 2040 — the approximate “end of civilization as we know it,” absent major changes. It also flagged 2020 as the moment where things begin to wobble.
A charming idea in 2019. Less charming in 2025.
So, let’s walk through what’s happened since — and why the model’s ghost is still tapping its watch like a disapproving librarian.
I. A BRIEF HISTORY OF “WHO SAW THIS COMING?”
The 1970s were a wild time: disco, Watergate, platform shoes, and the naïve hope that computing might solve all human problems. Into that haze came Limits to Growth, warning that:
World3 was not predicting meteors or killer robots — just the math of overshoot. Endless growth on a finite planet doesn’t end with a bang. It ends like a Jenga tower: slowly, then all at once.
Their projections gave three timelines:
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Best case — global cooperation and sustainability
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Moderate case — eventually painful adjustment
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Business As Usual — collapse around 2040
You’ll never guess which one humanity chose. Hint: it wasn’t #1.
II. “BUSINESS AS USUAL”: A PROGRESS REPORT
Since 1973, we have performed a half-century-long demonstration of How To Ignore Every Warning Sign Ever.
Population: doubled
Energy use: skyrocketed
CO₂: up-up-up
Inequality: locked-in
Political sanity: down the storm drain
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We squeezed resources like they were stress balls, then complained that the stress didn’t go away. And we dumped trash into the only biosphere we have, like a teenager who thinks the laundry basket has magical powers.
The MIT model didn’t include “TikTok,” but it did predict general brain-rot as society gets overwhelmed. On that front, we are overachieving.
III. THE “BIG CHANGE” OF 2020
World3 said the first serious tremors would hit around 2020. As in:
“Maybe try taking this seriously now?”
Cue a global pandemic. The entire planet went into time-out.
Suddenly:
All the while, the Doomsday Clock cleared its throat.
Shock #1: Delivered on schedule.
IV. 2025: THE CLOWN CAR DRIVES ITSELF
And now we arrive at the present moment, where we are treated to Trump: The Resurrection — a sequel no one green-lit except the Electoral College and several very confused swing counties.
Here is the inconvenient truth:
Many of Trump’s 2025 decisions, while wrapped in his usual slapstick authoritarianism, perfectly align with the worst-case collapse scenario.
To be clear: He is not intentionally collapsing civilization. To be intentional would require reading something longer than a menu.
Nevertheless, the checklist:
| Collapse Factor |
MIT Pessimistic Scenario |
Trump 2025 Policy |
| Environmental protection |
Remove safeguards |
Removes safeguards then sues anyone who mentions ecosystems |
| Public infrastructure |
Maintain to prevent systemic stress |
Privatize to the point the word “public” is treasonous |
| Global cooperation |
Strengthen |
Tariff war now includes allies and pineapples |
| Political stability |
Critical |
Governs by tantrum and purges |
| Wealth distribution |
Become more equitable |
Becomes a funnel into Mar-a-Lago |
None of this requires a conspiracy. Just a lack of impulse control.
In short: If you wanted to accelerate systemic breakdown, you could hardly do better.
V. WHAT DOES COLLAPSE LOOK LIKE?
People picture apocalypse as:
Reality is far messier. Collapse is:
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Chronic shortages
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Failing infrastructure
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Declining trust
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Corruption as “policy innovation”
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Increasingly stupid political choices
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Endless fights over everything except the real problems
Collapse is not an event. Collapse is customer service on hold for 20 years.
And we are listening to the same unbearable music.
VI. THE DEPRESSING ACCURACY OF OLD COMPUTERS
Multiple new studies comparing real-world data to World3 keep finding something unsettling:
We are still tracking Business As Usual.
Industrial output is near peak in several regions.
Environmental stress is accelerating.
Quality of life is flattening or falling.
Computers that crash when you hit “print” were somehow better at forecasting the future than entire governments. Let that sink in.
VII. THE OPTIMISM-INDUCING PART (TINY BUT REAL)
Even the original authors insisted:
Collapse is not inevitable. It is a scenario, not a destiny.
The “stabilized world” scenario — the good one — is still technically possible, requiring:
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Massive shifts in consumption
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Strong social safety nets
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Smart resource management
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Cooperation instead of cosplay nationalism
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Politicians who understand cause and effect
So… yes, possible. About as possible as teaching cats tax law. But possible!
If global civilization makes better choices — soon — we may dodge the worst outcomes. Even Trump can’t ban hope. (He tried once, but the courts said hope is not a “woke ideology.”)
VIII. THE ENNUI APOCALYPSE: DEATH BY BOREDOM
In the original post, I cracked that we might all die of ennui by 2040.
Little did I know the universe would accept that as a design document. Today:
Screens have replaced place. And algorithms have replaced attention.
The world may not starve. It may simply forget how to want anything real.
That’s collapse too — the quiet kind. The slow suffocation of meaning.
IX. WHERE WE ACTUALLY STAND (SCORECARD)
| Metric |
Trend |
Cliff Proximity |
| Climate stability |
Falling apart |
Very Close |
| Global democracy |
Teetering |
Alarmingly Close |
| Resource security |
Shrinking |
Close |
| Food systems |
Stressing |
Maybe Too Close |
| Political sanity |
Rapidly decaying |
Through the floor |
| Billionaire rocket escapes |
Increasing |
Already launched |
We’re not doomed. We’re just stressed, reckless, and badly supervised.
Think of civilization as a 17-year-old with car keys.
X. SHOULD YOU PANIC?
Not yet. Panic wastes energy we will need for gardening and artisanal composting later.
More useful to ask:
What can we do that doesn’t involve denial, magical thinking, or tweeting memes at each other while the heat index hits 125°F?
We know what helps:
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Vote like the ocean is rising (it is)
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Support resource-smart policies
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Strengthen institutions instead of trolling them
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Choose cooperation over grievance cosplay
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Reward leaders who read beyond the table of contents
It’s either that, or buy canned beans and a solar-powered Wi-Fi unit for your bunker and hope the marauders are vegan.
XI. 2040: THE PROVISIONAL END OF THE WORLD
2040 is not a calendar appointment (“Apocalypse: 3:30 PM”). It’s a risk window.
A convergence point where:
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Environmental limits
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Economic fragility
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Demographic strain
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Political idiocy
…all meet up for the worst family reunion in history.
Civilization has survived a lot. But it has never attempted all the bad ideas at once. Until now.
XII. CONCLUSION: CHEER UP — THERE’S STILL TIME TO SAVE EVERYTHING
The 1973 doom model is not laughing at us. It is warning us.
Humor is how we stay sane during the warning. All we need to avoid the 2040 cliff is:
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Competent global leadership
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A public not addicted to delusion
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A functioning information ecosystem
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Respect for science
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And a shared understanding that planetary survival outranks billionaire whims
That’s all. Nothing major. If we accomplish that, 2041 will be delightful. We’ll toast the computers and say:
“Sorry we doubted you, Grandpa Mainframe.”
If not? Well… at least we’ll go down cracking jokes. Because humor is cheaper than therapy. And civilization got expensive.
NOTES & REFERENCES
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Limits to Growth (1972–74 modeling) — Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, 1972; and subsequent updates via the Club of Rome.
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2020 data comparisons show continued “Business As Usual” trajectory — G. Herrington, Update to Limits to Growth ~ Comparing the World3 Model with Empirical Data, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2020.
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Long-term global risk assessments — Charles Fletcher et al., Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and destitution, PNAS NEXUS, 2024.
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Collapse dynamics & vulnerability research — Marcus J. Hamilton & Robert S. Walker, Demographic synchrony increases the vulnerability of human societies to collapse, Populations and Evolution, 2025.
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Sustainability vs. overshoot mathematics — Aleksandra Drozd-Rzoska et al., Global Population and Carrying Capacity in the Anthropocene, Physics and Society, 2025.
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Historical collapse patterns — Hyunsu Chung, The Meaning of Collapse from Past to Present, Scholarly Review Journal, 2025.
By the same author:
The Great Compression: How an Ecological Inheritance
Became a Civilizational Stress Test
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Trenz Pruca is the pseudonym for a retired attorney and businessman. During his career as an attorney he participated in the management of a large international law firm. He also consulted for a state legislature and drafted significant laws regarding land use and the environment. He has served as legal counsel and director of state agencies dealing with land use, planning and environmental protection. In addition, he has acted as Chairman of a state governmental authority responsible for the construction of one of the nation’s largest transportation projects. He has lectured and written widely about issues of law, economics, religion, land use, environmental protection and politics. For more on his work, visit his website.
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