RecapThanks for joining this follow-up post to Post-Growth Future Visions, Part 1, which addressed the undesirable future visions of Doomerism, Post-Doomerism, and Catastrophism, plus four semi-dystopic forms. The entire series of future visions comprises a trio-series sequence that began with a survey of pro-growth visions, and a second-surveying series addressing transitional de-growth visions.
Because I have again underestimated the volume of subject matter, there will also be a third post (Part 3). In this second part of post-growth, we consider two mostly desirable post-growth visions. As with the undesirable post-growth visions, these three mostly-desirable future visions are not envisioned in terms of de-growth, but their combined effect could intentionally influence contraction of humanity’s increasingly heavy-footed global footprint on all planetary bio-ecosystems.
For certain, attaining a sustainable future post-growth world will require a collective dedicated reliance on values that serve the common good. Values I find worthy of consideration are summarized in the classical transcendental properties of Truth (logos, reality), Goodness (ethos, morality), and Beauty (pathos, quality).
On a practical survival level, the primary post-growth goal involves reducing the size, scope, and scale of humanity’s impact on bio-ecological systems. Achieving such a goal will require drastic reductions in material consumption and waste products, along with focusing on environmental restoration and regeneration. Assuming the elimination of pro-growth objectives, the two mostly desirable post-growth strategies discussed below – Resilient Adaptation and Ecological Modernism (ecomodernism) – could strategically address both de-growth and post-growth goals.
Desirable Post-Growth Vision: Resilient Adaptation
Resilient Adaptation, as related to achieving de-growth and post-growth sustainable resilience, requires making the essential adjustments needed in accommodating the ongoing effects of climate change, beginning asap, in a de-growth transitional mode. Of course, achieving resilience at 2C will require more stringent adaptive strategies and practices than what is needed at the current 1.5C level, which will not be reversible in our lifetime.
Reality 101: from this time forward, climate-change conditions are predicted to continue worsening. According to many climate models and scientific reports, there's a high probability that, within the next few decades, global temperatures will rise to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Specific projections vary depending on emission scenarios, but many models suggest a crossing of the 2C threshold within the mid-2040s to early 2050s.
Psycho-emotionally and intellectually, developing an open-minded willingness to respond flexibly and constructively in adjusting to ongoing rising challenges is an essential coping ability. This is especially the case when responding to the growing severity of climactic whiplashing extremes. Open mindedness means accepting a realistic vision of what’s happened, is happening, and likely will happen going forward. At every stage of adaptation, survivors will need a systemic cause-effect understanding of the wide-ranging complexity and complicated nature of our human predicament.
For such purposes, resilience refers to the capacity for anticipating and reducing threats to an individual’s or community’s vulnerability, and the ability to respond and recover from chronic stresses and hazardous events. Depending on a community’s physical location and infrastructure, vulnerability may vary. But social factors within any community, like not having access to transportation or medical care can increase vulnerability. In contrast, a resilient community is more able to adapt, endure, and potentially thrive in the face of change, uncertainty, and adversity.
Fortunately, help is available for developing community resilience. The Resilience Adaptation Feasibility Tool (The RAFT), a project based in Virginia, U.S.A., provides a collaborative “collective impact” approach to climate resilience. Strategies include leveraging the expertise and resources of multidisciplinary partners and diverse stakeholders in assisting localities and sovereign tribal nations striving to increase their resilience.
The project’s concepts exemplify similar approaches focusing on adaptation measures and practices, including a year-long process in which participating localities and Tribes are: 1) provided an independent assessment of their resilience; 2) engaged in a community leadership workshop where participants discuss the community’s strengths and opportunities, and also develop a Resilience Action Checklist of actions aimed at making a difference in community resilience that can be completed and/or initiated within one year; and 3) supported through one year of implementation by The RAFT university collaborative. An orientation video provides an overview of the program.
Fortunately, there are many programmatic and planning steps localities can take to increase resilience when dangers arise. Depending on the location and potential vulnerabilities, a community’s mitigation-adaptation strategies may include stormy-weather preparedness and recovery programs, appropriate land-use policies, infrastructure-protection systems, and programs to connect with and support vulnerable community members. All the while, meta-crisis mitigation efforts will be needed to reduce practices that overconsume natural materials (“resources”) and contribute to polluting the bio-ecosphere.
Desirable Post-Growth Visions: Selective Progress and Ecological Modernism
Selective Progress references a concept that focuses on prioritizing the development or improvement of specific, selected aspects or traits within a system or population, as opposed to attempting to enhance everything equally. Essentially, it means targeting specific traits or areas to focus on, which makes progress more efficient and effective by picking and choosing which areas to support according to specific criteria or goals that exist in such fields as genetics, breeding, and project management.
Some examples of selective progress: 1) In genetics the focus might be on non-human breeding, where organisms displaying desired traits are chosen to reproduce, over time resulting in a population with enhanced characteristics; 2) In education, a selective-model school may choose to prioritize specific academic subjects or skills for their curriculum, by focusing student development in those areas; and 3) In project management, selective progress might involve allocating more resources to critical tasks or features that have the greatest impact on the overall outcome.
Ecological Modernism (ecomodernism) is a concept that technological advancement can enable humans to be sustainable; that is, as long as the environmental impact remains minimal. Essentially, it's about finding ways to modernize society and address environmental concerns simultaneously, by emphasizing the importance of science, technology, and market dynamics to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection.
The key principles of ecological modernism include: 1) An optimistic view of technology as a valuable tool for solving environmental problems and creating a more sustainable future; 2) A decoupling of economic growth from environmental impacts, based on the belief that economic growth and environmental protection can be reconciled by decoupling resource consumption from economic activity; 3) A focus on efficiency and innovation in finding ways to increase resource use, and to innovate in areas like renewable energy, agriculture, and waste management; 4) The role of the state and markets in setting regulations and creating incentives for environmental protection, while also driving innovation and efficiency; and 5) Social transformation, by recognizing that environmental change requires not only technological advancements but also changes in social behavior and attitudes.
Numerous examples of constructive strategies and actions exist, among them: 1) Clean energy transitions, from fossil fuels to “renewable” energy sources like solar and wind power; 2) Sustainable agriculture based on farming practices that minimize environmental impact, like organic farming and precision agriculture; 3) Waste management practices, including recycling and composting programs that help reduce landfill waste; and 4) Sustainable urban planning that’s focused on developing cities that prioritize public transportation, green spaces, and energy-efficient buildings.
There are legitimate criticisms leveled at ecomodernism, beginning with greenwashing, as evidenced with individuals and companies making superficial environmental claims while failing to make genuinely constructive changes. Some critics also argue that ecomodernism fails to address the fundamental issues of capitalism and its inherent drive for economic growth, which they deem the major cause of environmental degradation. Moreover, there are grave concerns related to the exacerbation of existing and potential social inequality issues, with technological advancements disproportionately benefiting wealthier individuals and nations.
In summation, ecomodernism offers a general framework for thinking about ways to achieve sustainable development and environmental protection by means of technological innovation and social change. Although the concept was addressed in an earlier post (Pro-Growth Future Visions, Part 2 ), it was listed as a more vIable sustainable concept than techno-utopianism.
I hesitated in listing it here as a desirable post-growth modality, but figured that if the concept of material growth and greenwashing were excluded, ecomodernism might help achieve a de-growth transition to a more sustainable existence, depending on a series of potential socioecological bottlenecks along the way. Although ecomodernism may not provide an ideal concept for a sustainable world, it continues to be a significant force in shaping environmental policy and thought.
Previous posts focusing on varying aspects of sustainability are also relevant to this post, providing information that offers a more comprehensive understanding about the scope and scale of sustainability issues. Of special note, these three preparatory articles preceded the multi-part series of pro-growth, de-growth, and post-growth articles: What Does Sustainability Mean?; Two Contrasting Paradigms: Pro-Growth vs. Post-Growth; and Future Sustainability: The Challenges Ahead.
Wrap Up
I’ve once again taken on more subject matter than can be covered in a single post, which I limit to around 1500 words. So, readers can anticipate a Part-3 post-growth article addressing what many de-growth advocates (including me) identify as the most desirable potential future-sustainability visions: Nature-Integrated Living, Localism, and Eco-Localism, plus visions of Post-Industrialism, Low-Technologies, and Eco-Communities (villages).
As an exercise in preparation for next week’s post, it will help to list your thoughts regarding the appropriate values and characteristics needed in realizing humanity’s future-sustainability goals. Also, in contrast to your preferred future vision, answer this question: When considering the continuing pro-growth trajectory of humankind, what type of future do you think will likely occur – and, if so, why?
Tough assignment? Indeed, I deal with conflicting emotions daily, vacillating emotionally between a desired sustainable outcome, while also worried that the opposite might become a reality.
Be good to yourself – and to all other beings!
