Recap
Welcome back! This two-part series of post-growth future visions follows a three-series sequence that began with a survey of pro-growth visions, followed by a second-surveying series addressing transitional de-growth visions. Here, in this two-part post-growth series we consider what might be considered worst-case future visions, which could become a reality – if we fail to reduce our heavy-footed global footprint on the planet.
While these conceptual future visions are not envisioned in terms of de-growth, their combined effect may unintentionally nudge society toward contraction. Actually, de-growth may occur anyway, but socioecologists agree that it will likely fail in creating just, equitable, and regenerative outcomes. The reality is that, unless leaders begin embracing post-growth values explicitly, with a focus on promoting values like sufficiency, equity, cooperation, and ecological restoration, the post-growth socioecological consequences may resemble collapse more than transition.
Rather than end this two-part post-growth series with featuring undesirable visions, I decided to offer it first, so we can close with desirable post-growth visions.
Undesirable Visions – Assumptions, Examples, Implications, and Socioecological Impacts
The sad reality is that, humanity is failing to proceed with an intentional and strategically managed transition toward sustainable wellbeing, which requires living within Earth’s socio-ecological boundaries. Instead, we seem headed for unintended de-growth outcomes, including economic crises, increasing political polarization, authoritarian responses, and increased suffering, especially for poor marginalized world citizens and most non-human beings.
Currently, with the exception of scientists, researchers, environmental activists, and some policy makers, few people understand the gravity of our global predicament, much less the speed at which socioecological breakdown is spiraling beyond our hubristic ability to change course. Sadly, for a variety of reasons, including psycho-emotional stresses, most world citizens remain uniformed or misinformed. And many simply choose to either ignore or deny dire messaging, all the while hoping for positive outcomes.
Among all environmentally critical areas of concern, experts fear the potential consequences of tipping points related to the increasing climate-changing extremes of heat, drought, rainfall, and whiplashing weather patterns. Another major concern is the rapid deterioration of bio-ecological systems, including diminishing arable lands, extinction of many plant, insect, and animal species, and over-heating of oceans. The list goes on, and on . . .
As for civilization, such wide-ranging environmental impacts could be very severe, leading to social fragmentation and systemic collapse. Socioeconomic and political systems could become unstable and even collapse. In fact, some current nations and regions are experiencing collapse, and capable of existing only by means of foreign-aid assistance.
The failing nations of Syria, Sudan, Haiti, and the small island nation of Tuvalu have together suffered a variable series of social and ecological challenges exhibiting signs of breakdown or collapse. Gaza, as a failing principality, may also join this category. Classic societal breakdown signs may include: fragmentation of society in terms of general economic poverty due to hyperinflation or unemployment; declines in industrial production, trade, and technological progress; humanitarian concerns over health and wellness (hunger, shelter, and medical assistance); and wide destruction, deaths, and injuries resulting from conflicts, wars, and diseases.
Another significant warning sign points to the mass migrations of refugees streaming from areas experiencing various dangerous conditions. Large-scale migrations to more stable countries have been accelerating over the past two decades, effectively providing a microcosmic insight revealing the potentially dire prospects on the way to a post-growth future. Perhaps the primary cause can be attributed to food and water shortages experienced in overcrowded conditions, where health and social well-being are affected by societal conflicts, excessive pollution, and harsh climate conditions (heat, droughts, floods, etc.).
Undesirable future scenarios present frightening implications for civilization. Just imagine the most alarming fictional versions presented to the public in movies, novels, or projections by dedicated scientists and socioecologists. One popular example is represented with the dystopic-themed movies produced by the Mad Max Franchise. The possibility of such dreadful future visions is reprehensible to our modern minds, but, fortunately, we can learn lessons from observing the contemporary failed states mentioned above.
Of course, failing states and regions are overburdened with the growing numbers of humans that depend on surrounding bio-ecological systems for sustenance. In sum, excessive human demands may be listed as the primary cause of losses in native vegetation and wildlife, chiefly through overconsumption of natural materials in servicing all human needs. Deteriorating life-sustaining systems are also the consequences of ongoing human-produced CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and the resultant toxic pollution of water, air, and soil.
Worst Case Scenarios – Doomerism, Post Doomerism, and Catastrophism
Doomerism, a term associated with certain death, destruction, or terrible fate, is thought to have originated primarily on social media. This pessimistic future outlook is held by persons sharing a skeptical and fatalistic prognosis for civilization and the natural environment. Understandably, it is a controversial future vision. After all, only unbalanced people seem to enjoy contemplating catastrophic news, especially if there’s any chance of their being affected.
Based on the available wealth of data and media reporting about a series of accelerating and converging crises, so-called “doomers” are reconciled with the belief that humanity and the planet’s bio-ecosphere may not be able to survive a global socioecological collapse. Moreover, they believe that, if a greatly reduced population does survive, the overall standard of living will not resemble the level enjoyed by developed world citizens prior to the decline of the global techno-industrial experiment. Alas, the most pessimistic doomers are convinced that the growing threats posed by the metacrisis could portend the possibility of human extinction.
It's understandable that doom scenarios may well occur. Scenarios could range anywhere from total annihilation of civilization and widespread bio-ecosphere harms to a few inhabitable areas. For humans fortunate to survive in sanctuaries, pockets of humans could begin a healing process with Nature’s regenerative powers, perhaps even flourishing. Although such a future scenario may seem undesirable, it would allow humanity and the planet an opportunity to reestablish a symbiotic, mutually responsive partnership.
Post-Doomerism may be thought of as a more benign form of doomerism. Based on information I’ve gained over the past fifteen or so years, doomerism, and especially post doomerism, are well-educated perspectives shared by highly respected people deeply concerned about the mutual fate of civilization and the bio-ecosphere. The origins of “post doomerism” help explain my favorable comments.
In 2019, founder Michael Dowd articulated his hard-earned response to our socioecological predicament as a “sensible acceptance of reality”, the end-stage of the grieving process. According to post-doom website information, post-doomers ascribe to three principal beliefs:
1) What opens up when we remember who we are and how we got here, accept the inevitable, honor our grief, and prioritize what is pro-future and soul-nourishing; 2) A fierce and fearless reverence for life and expansive gratitude – even in the midst of abrupt climate mayhem and the runaway collapse of societal harmony, the health of the biosphere, and business as usual; and 3) Living meaningfully, compassionately, and courageously, no matter what.
Tragically, Michael Dowd died from a heart attack in 2023.
Finally, a non-human generated catastrophe (volcanism, meteor showers) has the potential to cause the most extensive and perhaps quickest socioecological death and destruction, with two possible anthropocentric exceptions: 1) an all-out nuclear world war and 2) a potential reversal of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the major conveyor-belt, ocean-circulating current that affects climate and weather patterns. The theory of catastrophism helps explain non-human world-ending events.
Catastrophism is the geological theory that Earth has been largely shaped by abrupt and transient violent events that possibly occurred globally. For two examples, consider the future possibility of large meteor showers, like the one that occurred 800-million years ago, or an asteroid strike similar to the Chiczulub event 66-million years ago, leading to a mass extinction that wiped out 70% of all species, including the mighty dinosaurs. While acknowledging the occurrence of catastrophic events in the geologic past, modern scientific consensus considers such events as extreme examples of natural processes.
Aside from the three aforementioned negative post-growth future visions, there are three more slowly-developing, semi-dystopic visions deserving brief mention. Neo-feudalism is a contemporary rebirth of policies connected with theoretical governance, economy, and public-life that existed in many feudal societies between the 9th and 15th centuries. Another form, Societal decline (or civilizational collapse), refers to the deterioration of a complex human society according to the loss of cultural identity, social complexity, and the potential downfall of government and rise of violence. Similarly, a "slow collapse" refers to a gradual decline or disintegration of a complex system, society, or civilization, often characterized by a series of interconnected issues that, rather than experiencing a sudden catastrophic event, worsens over a long time, as occurred with the Roman and Mayan empires. For another example, see John Michael Greer’s article explaining his unique perspective of catabolic collapse.
Finally, there’s the aforementioned "Mad Max" scenarios set in a post-apocalyptic wasteland, often featuring resource scarcity, brutal gangs, and a desperate fight for survival, with iconic vehicles and characters. Of all negative futures, a “Mad Max” type of future may be the most horrible dystopic version one could imagine.
Wrap Up
Well, that does it. One can only ponder such dystopic future scenarios for brief spells. For certain, facing dire future projections requires courage, particularly when sharing and discussing the topic with others.
Dominic Packer and Jay Van Bavel co-wrote an article recently that addresses how to communicate effectively about our potential socioecological future. While they claim to have developed finely-tuned gallows humor when addressing the topic, they wonder if at every chance we should be yelling “the sky is falling”. Horrifying news has the power to paralyze people from taking constructive action, in turn creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. The writers pose the following question:
Does bad news about a dire future inspire you to take action or leave you feeling overwhelmed? Our findings revealed that doom and gloom messaging was highly effective for stimulating climate change information sharing, like posting on the internet or social media, where negativity reigns.
Good news! The next post will cover some desirable future visions proposing actionable strategies with the potential of advancing sustainability. Of course, what happens will largely depend on how urgently constructive measures are taken in reducing and mitigating the ongoing decline of our bio-ecosphere, a finite natural capital base that includes all plant and animal lifeforms. The more desirable future visions to be explored include Resilient Adaptation, Selective Progress, Nature-Integrated Living, Localism, and Eco-Localism.
Till next time . . .
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Clifton Ware, D.M., retired professor (voice), professional singer and author of four published books and two unpublished works, retired in 2007 from the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities School of Music, where he taught for 37 years. Since retiring, as a self-described socio-ecological philosopher he has spent 15 years focusing on sustainability issues, in the process of acquiring an evidence-based, big-picture understanding of all principal societal and ecological systems, including the symbiotic interconnections and role of humans as an integral part of Nature. In 2013 he founded Citizens for Sustainability in St. Anthony Village, MN, produced Sustainability News + Views (2014-2019), a weekly newsletter featuring a variety of articles and a commentary, co-composed 13 Eco Songs with his wife, Bettye, organized Sustainability Forums, and performed eco-oriented programs and presentations for several organizations.
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