Trump’s latest “drill, baby, drill” plan gets plenty of contempt but little investigation—a sure path to ignorance.
Skeptics say it’ll fail because oil companies aren’t interested. They’re focused on shareholder returns, not expensive drilling projects. Falling prices and policy uncertainty don’t help.
“I just don’t believe that companies are going to do that. Wall Street will dictate here — and you know what? They don’t have a political agenda. They have a financial agenda . . . They have zero incentive to basically tell the management teams running these businesses to go and drill more wells”
Wil VanLoh, Quantum Energy Partners CEO
Most assume Trump’s energy plan is all about oil. It’s bigger than that. The “Unleashing American Energy” order covers oil, gas, nuclear, renewables, coal, and geothermal.
It pushes federal land exploration, rare earth dominance, and energy security. It scraps the EV mandate, cuts subsidies, and fast-tracks pipelines, LNG terminals, and carbon capture. By declaring a national energy emergency, Trump unlocks powers under the National Emergencies Act and the Defense Production Act to push projects through. The risk? Environmental checks get bypassed.
Shale plays are running out of runway. Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie predict U.S. oil output will rise by only 1.3 million b/d under Trump—less than the 1.9 million b/d under Biden. The easy oil is drilled. What’s left costs more and produces less. Goehring & Rozencwajg say shale’s best days are over. Productivity peaked in 2017, sweet spots are tapped, and official growth figures are inflated.
Goldman Sachs sees tech gains driving Permian growth, but geology is working against it. Rig counts are falling, and growth slows—6% this year, 4% in 2026.
EIA expects tight oil to peak at 9.4 mmb/d in late 2026, then drift down just 0.2% to 9.3 mmb/d by 2029 (Figure 1). A slow fade, not a crash.
Figure 1. EIA expects tight oil production to reach a peak plateau in late 2026 and decline slowly after mid-2028. Source: EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Click on the image to enlarge.
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Worrying about supply assumes shale’s limits are known. USGS says there’s lots of oil and gas left. The Total Petroleum System method maps everything from source rock to trapped hydrocarbons.
As of 2015, shale plays held an estimated 100 billion barrels of undiscovered oil (Figure 2). That’s about 4 times proven shale reserves.
The Permian leads with 70 billion barrels, followed by 19 billion in the Gulf Coast and Eagle Ford, 5 billion in the Bakken, 3 billion in the Appalachian, and 4 billion scattered across smaller plays.
Figure 2. USGS Domestic Continuous (Unconventional) Oil Assessments. Source: USGS and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Click on the image to enlarge.
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There are plenty of reasons to doubt these numbers—they’re just estimates. But I was among those who dismissed early shale forecasts, and now we’re looking at 25 billion barrels of proven reserves.
Shale gas looks similar. USGS estimates 1,300 Tcf of technically recoverable gas—three times proven reserves. The Gulf Coast leads with 448 Tcf, followed by the Permian (340 Tcf), Appalachian (320 Tcf), and 189 Tcf in smaller plays.
Figure 3. USGS Domestic Continuous (Unconventional) Gas Assessments. Source: USGS and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Click on the image to enlarge.
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The U.S. also holds 43 billion barrels of conventional oil and 350 Tcf of conventional gas, but much of this remains untapped due to cost, technology limits, and regulations.
Trump’s plan isn’t just deregulation—it’s government intervention to drive development. This was how tight gas, coalbed methane, and shale oil were born. The 1980 Windfall Profit Tax Act, the 1978 Natural Gas Policy Act, and Energy Policy Act of 2005 funded research, tax breaks, and incentives that made them viable. Expect Trump to try the same playbook.
Most analysis of Drill, Baby, Drill misses the point. Analysts look at what is, not what could be. That thinking left the U.K. in a weak spot—after burning through its North Sea oil and gas, it now imports most of its energy and hopes renewables can fill the gap.
After the energy crises of the 1970s, the U.S. backed coal, nuclear, and LNG. Government support made tight gas and coalbed methane possible. Shale gas built on those, transforming U.S. energy by the 2000s. Tight oil followed, disrupting global markets in the 2010s. Both reshaped the U.S. economy and geopolitics.
Now those plays are fading. What comes next? Trump understands that energy is political power. Unlike most of his predecessors, he sees the link between energy dominance, economic strength, and global influence. Steve Bannon called him an “imperfect vessel.” I’d say worse, but he’s willing to do what others won’t.
The risks are real. More fossil fuels mean more growth, more emissions, more environmental damage. If economic growth remains the goal, renewables only slow the problem. Trump’s fossil push may sideline renewables and keep the U.S. locked into an outdated system.
Expect a fight, but when it’s over, the U.S. energy landscape won’t look the same—for better or worse.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Art Berman is Director of Labyrinth Consulting Services, Sugar Land, Texas, and a world-renowned energy consultant with expertise based on over 40 years of experience working as a petroleum geologist. Visit his website, Shattering Energy Myths: One Fact at a Time, and learn more about Art here.
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