Last week, I spent time with oil CEOs who understood the complex environmental issues tied to energy but still believed everything would work out for humanity. Technology will fix most of the world’s problems, and progress will take care of the rest.
Yesterday, the International Energy Agency offered a similarly optimistic take from the renewable energy side. Its latest report claims that a booming clean energy market will drive economic growth, create jobs, and bring sustainability. They argue this shift will boost energy security and reduce fossil fuel reliance—despite the steep challenges and the need for massive policy shifts worldwide.
Both views carry a kind of naïve optimism, assuming that the system will self-correct despite clear evidence to the contrary. This human-centered thinking assumes that what’s good for us is good for the planet, but the reality couldn’t be more different. The evidence shows that this false belief is steering us and living systems in the wrong direction.
Despite public perception, the oil industry people I spoke with take climate change seriously. But climate change isn’t the core issue—overshoot is. We’re using resources faster than nature can regenerate and polluting beyond what it can absorb, eroding the foundation of our survival.
“Humanity is in overshoot—global heating, plunging biodiversity, soil/land degradation, tropical deforestation, ocean acidification, fossil fuel and mineral depletion, the pollution of everything, etc., are indicative of the increasing disordering of the biosphere/ecosphere. We are at risk of a chaotic break down of essential life-support functions.”
Bill Rees
This morning, I took a survey to see just how much my own habits contribute to overshoot using the ecological footprint calculator. If everyone lived like me, we would need 6.7 earths (Figure 1). I used all of the defaults except for my housing and air travel selections.
Figure 1. If everyone lived like me, we would need 6.7 earths.
Source: Global Footprint Network.
Click on the image to enlarge.
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We can debate the numbers, but the point is clear: modern life demands far more from the planet than sustainability allows. Yet this rarely comes up in future discussions within the energy industry or the renewable sector.
Climate change is just one of nine planetary boundaries affected by overshoot, and six of these have already been breached (Figure 2). When we cross a boundary, Earth systems hit tipping points, triggering self-sustaining shifts.
The most critical breached boundaries are pollution, biosphere integrity, nutrients, and climate—clear signs that human activity is pushing Earth beyond safe limits, risking irreversible change. Yet in conversations with industry and renewable advocates, only climate-related issues get real attention.
- Pollution: Synthetic chemicals, plastics, and GMOs (Genetically Modified Organisms) disrupt ecosystems.
- Biosphere Integrity: Loss of genetic diversity weakens ecosystem resilience.
- Nutrients: Excess nitrogen and phosphorus from fertilizers pollute water and create “dead zones.”
- Climate Change: Greenhouse gases raise temperatures and alter climate patterns.
Figure 2. Six of the nine Boundaries are now operating beyond safe limits, two more than in 2015. The state of our Earth system has continued to deteriorate since the last assessment in 2023.
Source: Planetary Health Check 2024.
Click on the image to enlarge.
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I take these tipping points seriously, but I’m not here to sound alarms. I’m just pointing out that optimistic views on energy, climate change, or technology routinely leave them out. Those positions aren’t just incomplete—they’re unrealistic and misleading.
Those in the oil industry see no hard limits on energy; oil may deplete, but they believe new production will always follow as demand drives technological evolution. Meanwhile, renewable advocates see solar, wind, and hydropower as endless sources, believing with enough investment, renewables will secure our energy future.
Both sides miss the bigger picture—the real issue is the whole system, with humans as part of it, not piecemeal solutions to isolated parts. As Vaclav Smil has warned, without a healthy biosphere, there’s no life on this planet. It’s that simple.
“The biosphere is civilization’s life support system…Any phenomenon is controlled both by the working of its smaller parts and by its role in the larger system of which it is a part.
“On the familiar scale of human life, we see the parts very well (people, economic assets, environmental components), but rarely do we think of it as a single-system operation.”
Howard T. Odum
We’re wired to jump to fixes before we fully understand the problem. Mainstream solutions—like high-tech fixes—often shift the problem instead of solving it. We can’t address isolated symptoms without facing the root cause: humanity’s relentless growth.
“We’re leveraged to growth…We gotta keep growing. And then the double bind is that if we keep growing, we’ll collapse not only the economy, but the ecology and civilization as we know it.”
John Fullerton
But growth is embedded in our systems, so addressing it head-on isn’t likely.
The data shows we’re in serious trouble. Enough with the naïve optimism. We’re an adaptive species, so let’s quit chasing impossible fixes and hoping for miracles—our focus should be on real, practical mitigation to prepare for what’s coming.
That’s what we should do, anyway.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Art Berman is Director of Labyrinth Consulting Services, Sugar Land, Texas, and a world-renowned energy consultant with expertise based on over 40 years of experience working as a petroleum geologist. Visit his website, Shattering Energy Myths: One Fact at a Time, and learn more about Art here.
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