Mother Pelican
A Journal of Solidarity and Sustainability

Vol. 8, No. 10, October 2012
Luis T. Gutiérrez, Editor
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The Current World Crisis: Danger and Opportunity

Courtesy of Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd

In the Chinese language, the word for "crisis" is formed by juxtaposing two symbols: the symbol for danger and the symbol for opportunity. Indeed, a crisis is generally induced by the emergence of a significant danger, and there is no shortage of crises in today's world. However, history confirms that some of the most important advances in human civilization have been accomplished by turning dangers into opportunities for resolving the issues that precipitated the crisis in the first place. This by no means implies that we should indulge in naive complacency about the current world crisis. For the first time in human history, we face a crisis, or a set of crises, that span multiple domains (social, economic, political, ecological) and do so on a global scale. This issue presents several perspectives on the current world crisis. There is no such thing as "the solution" for them all, but willingly facing them is the first step toward (hopefully) turning them into opportunities for further human advancement throughout the world.


Page 1. Crises Facing Humanity on Earth Today, by Willard R. Fey
Page 2. What Happened To Virtue?, by James E. Miller
Page 3. Population and a Dose of Common Sense, by Blake Alcott
Page 4. Engineering Sustainability: A Technical Approach to Sustainability, by Marc Rosen
Page 5. The Erosion of the "Relational Matrix", by Leonardo Boff
Page 6. The Other Economy: Agenda Latinoamericana 2013, by Pedro Casaldáliga
Page 7. Three More Growth Fallacies, by Herman Daly
Page 8. Geonotic Diseases: a New Taxonomy, by Carolyn Raffensperger
Page 9. Scenes from the Great Transition, by Paul Raskin

The following supplements have been updated:

Supplement 1: Advances in Sustainable Development (prayer, study, action, news, pubs, tools, data, models)
Supplement 2: Directory of Sustainable Development Resources (library of 1000+ links to online resources)
Supplement 3: Long-Term Strategies for Sustainable Energy (clean energy, mitigation and adaptation strategies)
Supplement 4: Short-Term Strategies for Sustainable Energy (education, taxes, basic income, ISO standards)
Supplement 5: Fostering Gender Equality in Society (gender solidarity and equality, men and women in society)
Supplement 6: Fostering Gender Equality in Religion (liberation from patriarchy, men and women in religion)


Symposium on "The Anthropocene: Planet Earth in the Age of Humans," 11 October 2012, 9:15 am – 6:30 pm, Baird Auditorium, National Museum of Natural History, 10th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC

Download the program for "The Anthropocene: Planet Earth in the Age of Humans"

The Smithsonian Institution’s Grand Challenges Consortia are hosting a symposium on October 11, 2012 to address the tremendous scope of transformations now occurring on the Earth with profound effects on plants, animals, and natural habitats. Geologists have proposed the term Anthropocene, or “Age of Man”, for this new period in the history of the planet. The symposium will focus on the arrival and impact of this new era through the lenses of science, history, art, culture, philosophy, and economics, and will promote discussion, debate, and deliberation on these issues of change.

Speakers will include Charles C. Mann, journalist and author of 1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created; Sabine O’Hara, Dean of the College of Agriculture, Urban Sustainability, & Environmental Sciences at the University of the District of Columbia; Richard Alley, Professor of Geosciences at Pennsylvania State University; and photographer and filmmaker Chris Jordan. Each of these presentations will be followed by responses from an interdisciplinary panel of scholars that will foster a wide-ranging discussion of the issues. A summation of the day’s discussion will be provided by The Honorable Timothy E. Wirth, President of the United Nations Foundation, former Congressman and Senator from Colorado.

The symposium will be open to the public, but space is limited. RSVP by October 1st to with attendee name and affiliation to receive your ticket. A schedule of talks, abstracts, and biosketches will be made available for download in advance of the event. A limited number will be available at the event.

Guests must use the Constitution Ave. entrance to the museum. Seating in the auditorium will not be assigned. Admission is free and guests will need to check in with museum security. The museum has various dining options. The nearest Metro stop to the Constitution Ave. entrance is the Archives station (Yellow, Green lines). The Smithsonian station’s Mall exit is on the Madison Ave. side of the museum (Blue, Orange lines). For information on bus lines with stops near the museum, please visit WMATA or DC Circulator. Parking is limited to on-street spaces (posted times are enforced) and local garages.

Feature Article
Crises Facing Humanity on Earth Today
Willard R. Fey
President and CEO, Ecocosm Dynamics
Member of the Board of Directors, Watering Oasis

A Keynote Address for Watering Oasis, Chicago, 9 September 2012


Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for coming to the first fund raising event for our new organization, Watering Oasis, LLC. My first objective this afternoon is to describe the devastating conditions humanity is experiencing on planet earth in 2012 that have motivated our founders to create this non-profit company. Since the details and severity of these conditions have been suppressed or misrepresented by almost all the leaders of governments, large corporations, financial institutions, health organizations, and the mass news & communications media, you may find it difficult to believe that what I describe is accurate. Therefore, I shall present references that you can examine for yourself. So you will be able to study them at your leisure, this presentation will be accessible in its entirety on the Watering Oasis website, along with additional references and a more detailed analysis.

Once you are somewhat aware of the monumental crises that humanity has created for itself, I shall explain how these conditions will lead to the unraveling of civilization as we know it; and cause a dramatic decline of human population and peoples' standards of living from wars, genocides, famines, pandemics, economic & financial crises, social anarchy, and environmental catastrophes during the next 20 to 40 years. Since the world human system is extremely complex in its diversity, its violence, its immorality, and its interconnections, no one can explain it in an hour. However, I shall try to provide an overview, sufficient for you to understand 1) how serious humanity's problems really are, 2) that they are caused primarily by humanity exceeding the capacity of the earth to support human life in an era when humanity has designed its world system to grow without limit and losing its moral integrity, and 3) the need to prepare for rapidly deteriorating living conditions for most humans for several decades.

Then I shall compare this secular era of human system collapse to a major theme that is repeated throughout the Bible. It is the period called the Last Generation or the Last Days. During this time many people will neglect Yahweh's laws and spiritual principles as they selfishly pursue pleasure, money, and power. It will be a time when humanity on earth will experience greater distress than was ever experienced in the past and greater distress than will ever be experienced in the future. It will be the time during which the three great evil ones; Satan, the Beast, and the False Prophet; will be released on earth. Prophecies say the Last Generation will begin when Jews and Israelites begin to return to their promised land after almost two thousand years in exile. The Last Generation will end when the Messiah returns to destroy evil, to prevent the total annihilation of humanity on earth, to judge those who have lived through the crises, and to begin His reign as King, High Priest, Prophet, and Judge on earth.

I believe these two periods of human history: 1) when humanity's consumption greatly exceeds the planet's ability to support it and forces a collapse in population and standard of living; and 2) the biblically prophesied time when humanity's distress will be greater than it ever was before, and greater than it ever will be again, and the war between good and evil will at last be settled; are the same period viewed from two different perspectives. One view focuses on physical, financial, economic, and political conditions; the other considers spiritual and moral issues. We are starting Watering Oasis at this time of increasing distress and evil with declining freedom to become a growing international refuge for those seeking to become self-sufficient, to survive the crises, and to maintain the biblical lifestyle of the Messiah and His followers as a blessing to ourselves and an example to others. This presentation is not for entertainment. It is intended to inform you of critical issues that you need to understand and respond to in order to survive the next two decades of distress. You may not understand or remember all I present; so the full text and all the figures will be printed on Please study it and prepare.

The Critical Condition of Humanity on Earth in 2012

The Environmental Crisis

Humans live on a small planet 8,000 miles in diameter. We occupy the land surface and are supported by a living life support system with an oxygen rich atmosphere, renewable living plant and animal resources, and non-renewable resources such as metal ores, crude oil, rare earth minerals, and other materials. Until 2000, both world human population and average annual per capita consumption grew exponentially. Figure 1 shows world human population growth. World human consumption is the algebraic product of population and average annual per capita consumption. It grew a little more than 4% per year on average over the last two centuries. This caused annual human consumption to double about every 18 years. Since 2000, population growth has slowed to a nearly constant 80 million per year. Human population first reached one billion people between 1830 and 1860. Population reached seven billion late in 2011. Therefore, it took all of human history up to 1850, perhaps hundreds of thousands of years, for human population to grow to just one billion. Then in the last 160 years, population has increased by 6 billion more. Now, it only takes 12 years for population to increase by another billion people. The earth simply cannot provide for so many people.


Human life on earth is threatened by the growth of world human consumption. The materials that are used to make the products humans consume come from the earth's natural environment of renewable and non-renewable resources. A life support system flow diagram in Figure 2 shows the natural resources in a cloud above, a waste and pollution cloud below with a human consumption flow from life support resources to waste. Human feedback controls regulate the consumption flow. As human population and per capita consumption have increased, the environmental resources of our planetary life support system have been depleted and degraded. Some of the problems caused by continued consumption growth are destruction of plant life—deforestation, destruction of land animal and sea life—species extinctions, global warming, upper atmospheric ozone depletion, non-renewable resources depletions, acid rain, ground and fresh water depletion and pollution, air pollution and oxygen depletion, top soil depletion and poisoning, and ocean water pollution.

The world economy is designed to create and depend on consumption growth. If the growth were to stop, major economic, social, and military crises would result. Some of the consequences that would result if consumption growth were to end are collapse of securities markets, economic depressions, famines, disease pandemics, government instabilities, social anarchy, civil wars, and international genocides and wars. Since these consequences are so dire for both continued growth and the end of growth, humanity is faced with a monumental dilemma. Therefore, Figure 3 states the Ecocosm Paradox, our name for this great dilemma. The ecocosm is the home universe for humans. It includes the sun, the moon, the earth with all its marvelous and unusual life support systems, and humanity's seven billion people.


Powerful human instincts drive the positive feedback-loop processes that produce consumption growth. This growth arises from the closed-loop interactions between many human, technological, and natural environmental variables. In order to understand the paradox and resolve it, these variables must be analyzed together as a complex, self-organizing, interacting process. Then, to avert disaster, the world's people must cooperate to downsize annual human consumption to a sustainable flow. Human consumption is already far beyond sustainability, so the recent concept of “sustainable development” is an oxymoron. That is a phrase that is self-contradictory. It is used to demean and reject peoples' justified concerns about humanity's destruction of the planet's life support system.

I became an environmentalist in 1942. That spring my grandmother took me to the Cincinnati Zoo. There I noticed two large plaques. The first was a memorial to Martha, the last Passenger Pigeon, who died at the Zoo in 1914. When Europeans first came to North America they found this species had the largest population of any kind of bird on the continent. Estimates placed the population at over 10 billion birds. In the mid-1800s people discovered these pigeons tasted good, had beautiful feathers, and were easy to catch in large nets. So in about 65 years, the pigeons were slaughtered to extinction. The second plaque was a memorial to Incas, the last Carolina Parakeet. His species suffered the same slaughter-to-extinction fate in 1918. My feelings that day started with pity for the birds, then turned to anger at the cruelty and selfishness of the poachers; and ended with a great fear of humans, some of whom are so selfish, and stupid, they do not understand that once they kill all members of a species, it is gone forever. This pathological selfishness of some people, particularly when they are becoming wealthy as they destroy the natural environment, is why I am very pessimistic about the fate of humanity in the next few decades.

The Conflict Resolution Crisis in Human Affairs

At this point it is necessary to consider the great problem of conflict resolution within and between human individuals, small groups, societies, and nations on earth. The human presence on earth is not unified, nor is it justly or morally coordinated. Humanity is a conflicted, combative mass of middle class and below people struggling to survive, while their super rich leaders confiscate much of their money using methods such as: 1) large banks' speculations, loan policies, fraud, and operating charges; 2) governmental taxes, over-regulation of small businesses, and debasement of their currencies; 3) large corporations' collusions with governments to suppress competition and to receive special favors; and 4) large media networks' distortions of the news and diversions of people's attention from important moral, social, and economic issues to trivialities.

Now in 2012, there are over 200 sovereign nations on earth. Almost all are in, or are rapidly approaching, severe states of financial, economic and/or social disintegration. The 7 billion people living in these nations speak hundreds of different languages, worship many different gods, have widely diversified social, dietary, moral, cultural, intellectual, and other attitudes. The resources, locations, and other endowments of the nations vary widely. The condition of the people: their education, health, skills, attitudes, fears, hatreds, financial state, etc., vary greatly. The governments vary widely in all respects, from tyrannical dictatorships to fairly free representative republics to near anarchies. There are internal conflicts, some violent, between different groups within some countries, and there are some wars in progress between nations. The larger nations all have armies and stores of weapons, some containing weapons of mass destruction. The United States has the largest military force and each year has a military budget nearly equal to the sum of all the other nations combined. Many of these internal and external conflicts have been going on for thousands of years. The United Nations' international forum is ineffective at best in resolving major international conflicts or problems.

To show how difficult human conflict resolution often is, consider the Eurozone. A decade or so ago, 17 European nations formed a currency union, that was intended eventually to become a political union. They did not have a well-planned, long-term vision of how the currency union would operate under a wide range of conditions; but, at the time, the union served the immediate financial needs of all 17 nations. Greece even employed Goldman Sachs, a dishonest American bank, to falsify its financial statements, so it could pass the financial requirements for acceptance into the union. Now, both the union and the currency itself are collapsing. Imagine Germans, Frenchmen, Italians, Spaniards, Greeks, and other Europeans, who have been killing, lying to, and stealing from each other for thousands of years, getting together to form a money union. Avarice is insatiable greed for riches, the miserly desire to gain or hoard wealth. At this stage of human civilization, avarice is a major factor in the attitudes and behavior of nearly all leaders of nations, banks, large corporations, and international organizations because the recovery of the earth's resources has become so profitable.

Human Consumption Growth Is Slowing Down; and
Humanity's Socio-economic System Is Beginning to Collapse

Consumption growth now is beginning to decline worldwide. That is because the depletion of renewable and non-renewable resources in the life support system has reached a point where continuing to increase the recovery rate of needed materials has become much more difficult and expensive. As resources are removed from the earth faster than they are replaced, the remaining resources become fewer, of lower quality, harder to find, harder to extract, more expensive to extract, and more distant from consumption centers; while the demand for them continues to increase exponentially. To compensate for these problems the prices charged for the consumption items have to be raised. The developed countries avoided raising prices for awhile by having low-labor-cost countries manufacture the products that the United States and Europe formerly made themselves; but foreign “low-cost” labor has become scarce and much more expensive.

To cover up the reality of a failing planetary environment and the failing financial and economic conditions of governments at all levels, corporations, and people in general; political and business leaders deceive themselves and the people about the real events and conditions with the help of dishonest government data gatherers and the news and entertainment media that are owned and controlled by the super rich leaders of society who profit enormously from the rape of the planet. Five of the next seven figures come from the Shadowstats website. They are time histories of five US macro-economic variables showing two or more versions of each one, plus the US Economic Misery Index, and the S&P 500 Stock Index. The five variables are US Gross Domestic Product; US Money Supply; US Inflation; US Unemployment; and the US Dollar Index. As you will see, the version of each that is reported to the public is much different from the alternate version shown here that is more accurately estimated. These comparisons are intended to show you the real US economic conditions; and to inform you of the magnitude of the deception.


Figure 4 shows US Gross Domestic Product as a % annual growth from 1982 through June, 2012. The two lines on the graph represent the official GDP % growth above and the Shadowstats corrected GDP below. Official GDP is mostly above +2% growth per year, except for 3 short recessions in 1982-83, 1991, and 2008-09. However, the Shadowstats Alternate GDP line is mostly below +2%; and, incredibly, it is negative from Q2 in 2000 to Q2 2012, except for one quarter in 2004 with a very small positive growth. That means the US has been in a sustained recession for the last 12 years (48 quarters), 8 years under President Bush, Jr, and 4 years under President Obama, except for one quarter. Few people know this, except John Williams' readers and all the millions of Americans who have lost their jobs, gone on food stamps, had their homes foreclosed, had to file for bankruptcy, and graduated from college with more than $30,000 in student loans who could not find a job. In fact, consumption growth DIED in America in 2000. I believe that except for an occasional quarter of small growth, consumption in the US will continue to fall until America as a nation defaults on its debts.

The S&P 500 stock index is a measure of business conditions in the United States. A time history of the S&P 500 Index is plotted in Figure 5 from 1953 to August 2011. Notice that it peaked early in 2000 after a long exponential rise and has formed a huge three-peak top twelve years long. Today, twelve years after its peak in 2000 and after considerable dollar value decline, which should make equity prices rise due to monetary inflation, the S&P 500 Index is below its 2000 top. This corroborates the 12 year recession shown by the alternate GDP numbers in Figure 4 above. America and the world are now financially exhausted and buried in debt after the 12 year battle to restart consumption growth when a dying earth life support system can no longer support the ever growing demands of population expansion and per capita consumption growth.


Figure 6 shows three versions of US Money Supply Growth %: M1, the thin gray line; M2, wide gray; and M3 thick black. M1 includes the fewest sources of Money Supply; M2 is M1 plus other sources; and M3 is all money supply sources. In 2006 the US Government stopped publishing M3. Shadowstats has provided the M3 estimates since then. At the end of 2004, all three versions were falling at nearly the same rate. From early in 2005 to the start of 2008, M3 went up the fastest, M2 went up slower than M3, and M1 went down then up after mid 2007. Then during the crash of 2008 and after it until 2012, M3 went down the most, M2 went down less fast, and M1 went up the most. This shows that despite the Federal Reserves' big money printing operations to inflate the money supply, the great recession of 2008-2009 was a deflationary recession because stock prices went down so much, and real estate not only went down greatly in value, but many mortgages were foreclosed. Falling values of assets, particularly defaulted mortgages, cause the money supply to fall. This recession caused great losses for the middle class, and great gains for the rich.

The US Economic Misery Index Is Exploding Upward

Two versions of US Annual Consumer Inflation are plotted in Figure 7: the official number below and the Shadowstats corrected number above. The upper number is uniformly higher than the official version below, with the gap between them growing wider as time goes on. In May 2012, real inflation was about 8% higher than official reported Consumer Price Index. Since official inflation is less than 2%, real inflation is more than four times as high as the official number. That is an enormous difference. Figure 8 shows three versions of US Unemployment Rate: U3, the official rate below; U6, another government version between; and the Shadowstats alternate is highest, and is the way the government calculated unemployment during the great depression of the 1930s. Official unemployment now is 8.3% of the national workforce. The high alternate is 22.7%, so the deception error is 14.4% of the workforce. Real unemployment is almost three times (2.77x) as high as official unemployment. During the Great Depression the highest unemployment was about 26%. America is almost at that point now.


The unemployment and inflation numbers allow us to calculate the Misery Index, a good measure of economic distress. The Misery Index is Real Unemployment % + Real Inflation %. The highest Misery reading since the Great Depression occurred during President Jimmy Carter's fourth year in office (1980) when he was seeking re-election. His Misery Index was in the high twenties then because inflation was in double digits. He lost in a landslide to Ronald Reagan. That was when Paul Volcker, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, raised short-term interest rates to over 20% to force inflation to decline. Figure 9 shows the real Misery Index above now to be well over 30% and rising. The lower “Official Misery Index,” is composed of Official unemployment of 8.3% plus 1.7% Official Inflation. This places Official Misery at about 10%. Therefore, real Misery is more than three times as high as Official Misery, another gigantic difference.


It will be very interesting to see just how much the American people are deceived. If they really feel economic misery to be high, President Obama will lose the election in November in a landslide to anyone who runs against him. However, if Americans believe the media deceptions that the country is in a recovery with GDP at +2% and rising, that unemployment is only 8.3%, inflation is under 2%, and the S&P 500 Stock Index is poised to break to new highs on its way to 2,000 points, President Obama will win in a landslide. I have been following American political campaigns for almost 60 years, but I have never before seen such enormous lies told so boldly and often with so few challenges to them. It will be even more interesting to see if the US economy goes into the major depression Shadowstats' John Williams is predicting will occur in late 2012 or 2013. If and when that depression arrives, the Misery Index could easily exceed 50%. Then whoever is elected President in 2012, may come to wish he had not run, so he would not have become the worst President in American history.

The US Dollar Is in Very Deep Trouble

Figure 10 shows Financial-Weighted vs Trade-Weighted US Dollar Value Indexes. The US government issues trade-weighted estimates of the value of the US Dollar shown above. Shadowstats publishes financial-weighted estimates of dollar's value below. The Dollar is a free-floating, fiat currency that is traded in the Foreign Exchange Market, the largest financial market in the world. Every day many trillions of dollars worth of world currencies are bought and sold. As you can see in the chart both versions of dollar value are in long-term down trends. That means the dollar is losing value. Today's dollar will buy only about half as much as a dollar would have bought in 1986. The government value above is consistently higher than Shadowstats' lower value. The government does not want people to know how much they are loosing by buying with dollars, so they publish the larger number. But the difference between the two measures is not what is important in this graph. It is the long-term decline in value and the story behind the numbers that are important.


After WWII, America was the leader of the free world. It survived the war without destruction to its homeland, while Europe and Asia were reduced to rubble. Then the US started the Marshall Plan to help the world rebuild. Between 1944 and 1960 two important relationships were established for the US Dollar. It became the reserve currency for free world countries, and the dollar became the currency used to pay for foreign trade transactions, even when the US was not a party to the trades. That means huge quantities of dollars were, and still are, kept in national vaults as backing collateral for other nations' currencies. It also means the US can simply print dollars to pay for its imports of foreign goods. Both of these agreements are breaking down. Foreign nations are beginning to replace dollar reserves with gold or other currencies; and they are also beginning to pay for imports with local currencies instead of dollars. This reduced demand for dollars causes the value of the dollar to decline. When these two agreements are abolished as they may soon be, the value of the dollar will fall rapidly, and people holding dollars or dollar denominated assets will lose most of their value.

To illustrate how important these two agreements are, consider that the primary objective of the 2003 Iraq War and of the war with Iran that the US is mobilizing for right now was to stop Iraq and Iran from selling oil for other currencies. Last year Iran set up a commodity futures trading exchange to trade oil futures in several currencies beside the US dollar. The first year was for experimental trading, but in September of 2012, the exchange is scheduled to begin live trading of oil futures in non-dollar currencies. That is why American threats, sanctions, and troop mobilizations against Iran have become so aggressive recently. There is a close relationship between money and war.

US Debt Is Too Large to Repay; Bank Morality Is Too Corrupt to Restore

Figure 11 shows Total US Debt as a % of GDP from 1870 to Q3 2009. It shows three major peaks: the panic of 1875, the Great Depression of 1933 and Now! Now is the highest peak and it is rising rapidly, despite the 12 year recession shown in Figure 4. This shows how far out-of-control America really is. So much debt has been transferred to sovereign nations, that some nations are now in danger of default, especially in Europe and America. Much of the blame falls on banks and governments that simply lost all moral restraint and cheated, stole from, and lied to everyone. Yet there has not been a single criminal prosecution of any fraudulent bankers, bribe-taking politicians, corrupt regulators, or lying newscasters. In the Savings & Loan Banking scandal of the early 1990s, more than a thousand bankers were tried and many went to jail.


Economic Weapons of Mass Destruction

In the fall of 2008, the world financial system started to collapse. It was caused by the collapse of the real estate fraud bubble and the rise of oil price to $147 per barrel. But the big crisis was the financial collapse of large banks and corporations due to huge losses in the over-the-counter derivatives market. Collateralized Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps were the derivatives that brought down the big banks and companies, such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, and General Motors. Congress and the Federal Reserve pumped over 15 trillion dollars into governments, banks, and large companies in the US and Europe to stop the collapse.

While the collapse did stop, the conditions that caused it—fraudulent banking schemes; ineffective, colluding, and repealed regulations; over-leveraged balance sheets; unmanageable consumer debt; mortgage defaults; oil price pressures; and the 1.2 quadrillion pound gorilla, unregulated derivatives— have not been fixed.

All large banks that play the derivatives market are technically bankrupt. The notional value of over-the-counter derivatives is not known because they are unregulated, but insiders estimate the value at over $1 quadrillion. In the next financial crisis that is coming to your bank soon, the derivative defaults, will be far beyond the resources of the whole human financial system to bail out. $1 quad = $1,000 tril.

The Beginning of World War III

I believe the events on 9/11/2001 were the first battle in America's war to rule the earth. It was the beginning of World War III. The official story of what happened that day and why it happened is not true. (Ref 1) It was not planned and executed by 19 Muslim suicide terrorists. The planes were not flown by people on board. The buildings did not fall because they were hit by planes or because they were on fire. The purpose of the attack was to convince the world that well-organized, effective Muslim terrorists are a threat to the civilized world, so that the United States could take complete control over its citizens through The Patriot Act, Homeland Security, and Presidential Executive Orders that have removed all of Americans' freedoms; and to convince the rest of the world that the US should lead the assault on anyone who does not accept its leadership. As President Bush said, “Anyone who is not with us, is against us,” as his troops invaded Iraq, after the United Nations had overwhelmingly rejected his request for UN support. The leaders of the New World Order agenda for a one-world government, who were behind the attack, are also allied with the European Union leaders. A 9/11-style false flag event may be staged this fall to justify a war with Iran and/or to influence the outcome of the US election.

The stage is set for a panic-driven attempt by nations, international organizations, large financial institutions, huge corporations, regional governments, communities, and people in general to beg, borrow, and steal: money, valuables, food, water, clothing, fuel, and anything and everything else they might need to survive a long-term period of major austerity and deprivation. One of my high school English teachers used to say, when we were studying Shakespearean tragedies, “In times of crisis, humans revert to type.” A few people can control themselves, calmly estimate the nature and magnitude of the crisis, think clearly about the best response, and effectively implement a solution. However, the vast majority of people, individually and in groups, panic, lose control, stop thinking, and selfishly attempt to force an ineffective solution on others. The animal part of human mentality drives people to the ultimate human method of conflict resolution: violent dominance on an individual basis and weapons-based war on a group or national basis. Civilization is a thin veneer layered over violent, selfish, dishonest human instincts. In deeply religious people, the beast may be overruled by the saint, but saints are relatively rare.

For the existing desperate financial, economic, and political conditions, when one-third to one-half of all people on earth live on 3 dollars or less per day, there are NO solutions that will miraculously and perpetually provide for 7 billion humans on a planet that can only sustainably support three billion or less at a reasonable standard of living. The net result is that America and Europe have fallen into personal mediocrity, moral depravity, financial bankruptcy, economic depression, and political tyranny at a time when they are weaker than ever before, and are now facing an even greater financial, economic, and social collapse than ever before, namely the Mother of all Great Depressions that Shadowstats' John Williams is forecasting to start in late 2012 or 2013. Therefore, sometime within the next decade or two these conditions will lead to the unraveling of civilization as we know it; and cause a dramatic decline of human population and standards of living from wars, genocides, famines, pandemics, economic & financial crises, social anarchy, and environmental catastrophes. The exact origin, sequence, and timing of these disasters are not precisely predictable because decisions by influential, but dishonest, stupid, pathological, deranged, conspiratorial, cruel, and/or self-seeking, leaders and black swan events cannot be predicted reliably, but the coming collapses and chaos are certain.


The conditions for the biblical last generation are established in the first chapter of Genesis. Here Yahweh instructs the first man and woman to “Be fruitful, multiply, fill the earth, and subdue it.” Fill the earth implies that there is a limit to the expansion of human population and a time when the earth will be full of people at its maximum capacity. Figure 12 shows the population exponential and the passage from Genesis. Two other passages, Daniel 12:1 and Matthew 24:21 below describe the unprecedented trouble that will arise during the Last Generation:

At that time Michael shall stand up … And there shall be a time of trouble such as never was since there was a nation, even to that time. Daniel 12:1

For then there will be great tribulation, such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be. Matthew 24:21

It is today's great “trouble” that shows that the population growth exponential has gone much beyond earth's maximum human capacity, so population will have to be reduced. In Ezekiel 37:15-28 Yahweh explains that there will be a time when he will bring His people, the Israelites of ancient Israel (the northern kingdom) and Judah (the southern Kingdom), back to their land after their long exile. He will make them one nation to be ruled by David (really Yahoshua the Messiah, David's descendant) forever. They will follow Yahweh's judgments, and respect his laws and practice them. He will set His sanctuary (His rebuilt Temple) among them and make his home above them forever.

Then the connection to Ezekiel 37's beginning of the Last Days is made in Mt 24:32-36 (also Mark 13:28-30). In the following passage, the fig tree is the symbol of Israel. The tree is planted when the first Israelites begin to return; and as its twigs grow and leaves come out, more and more Israelites will return as the last days proceed toward the culmination, when the Messiah will return to defeat the evil ones and to begin His reign as King.

Take the fig tree as a parable. As soon as its twigs grow supple and its leaves come out, you know that summer is near. … In truth I tell you, before this generation has passed away, all these things will have taken place. Matthew 24:32-34

Mt 24:34 says,”In truth I tell you, before this generation has passed away, all these things (the prophecies of the Last Days) will have taken place.” I believe “this generation” means all the people who were alive on the day the first Israelites returned to their land. That generation will pass away when the last one of the last generation people dies. So the last generation will end (last person will die) after the Messiah returns. Since this is an unique group of people, we cannot forecast the exact length of the last days, but we can set a rough estimate based on observed very long lives—perhaps, a maximum of 120 years from the time the first Israelite returns to Palestine to the time the Messiah returns.

So when did the Israelites begin to return? The Ottoman Turkish Empire ruled Palestine from AD 1516 until the end of World War One. The Turks did not permit lawful settlement in Palestine during that time for Jews or Christians because Jerusalem is Holy Ground to Muslims. The Turks were defeated in World War One and surrendered to the British who defeated them at the Armistice of Moudros in October 1918. It took a year or two for the Turkish Empire to be distributed to new rulers and for the Turks to be restricted to the borders they have today. The British government was given a mandate to administer Palestine. Since Britain was sympathetic to the desire of Jews to return to their land, the British administrators allowed Jewish immigration and ownership of land. They also allowed Palestinians to own land there. Yahweh's dating of the day the last generation began is not known. However, a reasonable estimate may be before January, 1920, when Jews were actively moving in and lawfully occupying land. 120 years after January 1920 is January 2040, less than 30 years from 2012.

Another way to estimate the end of the Last Days is to know that biblical history is divided into four time periods. Period 1 is 2000 years from the creation of Adam and Eve to the calling of Abraham into Yahweh's service. Period 2 is 2000 years from Abraham's calling to Yahoshua's resurrection and ascension in about AD 29-33. Period 3 is 2000 years from Yahoshua's ascension to Yahoshua's return in about AD 2033. And Period 4 is 1000 years from Yahoshua's return to the end of the seventh millennium at the time of the Great White Throne Judgment in AD 3033. This is the last judgment for all humans for all time and the beginning of the eternal life of Yahweh's Holy Nation. This division into seven millenniums is just like the week where seven days is the number of completion. It is like the seven weeks plus one day in the count of the omer from the day after the weekly Sabbath during the Feast of Unleavened Bread to Shabuoth. It is the same as the seventh year in the seven year sabbatical cycle; and like the Jubilee at the end of seven sabbatical seven year cycles. On several occasions Yahweh said that a day is the same as a thousand years to Him. 2033 is close to 2040 and both are soon. So please begin to consider how to get your house in order for Yahoshua's return.

Last Generation Prophecies Related to Jews and Israelites

Since the Israelites started to return, many biblical prophecies have been fulfilled. Their return itself is a miraculous fulfillment. Fulfilled prophecies about the Jews and Israelites include their return to Palestine, their restoration of the land and infrastructure, their reoccupation of Jerusalem, the reunification of the ancient northern and southern kingdoms, the re-establishment of their nation, the discovery of the Ark of the Covenant, and the restoration of the ancient priesthood.

Prophecies about Israel that have not been fulfilled yet include a major victory over a combined army lead by Russia and Iran with other Muslim nations, see the passage from Ezekiel below:

I shall lead you on and bring you from the farthest north against the mountains of Israel. … You will fall on the mountains of Israel, you, all your troops and the nations with you. … I shall send down fire on Magog and on those living undisturbed in the islands. Ezekiel 39:2-6

This war may begin soon and it may involve nuclear weapons, since fire will rain down on Magog (Russia) and on people in the “islands.” The islands are lands separated by water from the European-Asian-African land mass on which the Bible focuses. The islands include Great Britain, Greenland, North and South America, Australia, and many smaller islands. In this case, “islands” refers to modern offshore allies of Israel, namely the United States, Great Britain, and faithful British Commonwealth countries, such as Canada, Australia, and many smaller islands.

Also foretold is the rebuilding of Yahweh's Temple in Jerusalem. All the building materials and furnishings have already been assembled, ready for immediate construction when the Dome of the Rock Mosque is removed from the building site. Israelis have not removed the mosque because they fear a major holy war will erupt if they do. However, the Ezekiel 39 war may provide an opportunity for removing the mosque. When the Temple is rebuilt, biblical ceremonial liturgies with animal sacrifices will be restored.

In Daniel 9:27 and Matthew 24:15-16, a seven year treaty is prophesied between Israel and the ruler of the eventual prophesied one-world government to protect Israel from attacks from its enemies.

He will strike a firm alliance with many people for the space of a week, for one-half week he will put a stop to sacrifice and oblation, and on the wing of the temple will be the appalling abomination. Daniel 9:27

So when you see the appalling abomination, of which prophet Daniel spoke, set up in the holy place; then those in Judaea must escape to the mountains; Matthew 24:15-16

So three and a half years after the seven year protection treaty is signed, the ruler of the one-world government will stop Temple worship, proclaim himself to be god, set up an idol (the appalling abomination) in the Temple, and force everyone on earth to worship him. His persecutions will end with the return of Yahoshua leading Yahweh's army that will defeat the Beast's world human army assembled around Jerusalem to prevent the Messiah's return.

Fulfilled Last Generation Prophecies That Do Not Directly Affect Israel

Fulfilled Last Days prophecies that do not directly affect Israel include the great inflation of Rev 6:5-6 in which the price of wheat and barley will increase greatly, that occurred in Germany in the early 1920s and in Asia two years ago when a poor rice harvest caused record inflation in the prices of all grains and a famine.

When He opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come and see.” So I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, “A choenix of wheat for a denarius, and three choenixes of barley for a denarius; and do not harm the oil and the wine.” Revelation 6:5-6

Also the general problems of famines, pestilences, wars, and earthquakes in Mt 24:7-8 have been very active.

For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of sorrows. Matthew 24:7-8

A record worldwide pandemic of Spanish flu raged in 1919-20 and a greater, more recent pandemic of AIDS is still a critical problem in Africa. Famines are so common in Asia and Africa that they are seldom reported in the United States. World War II from 1938-45 was the most destructive war ever. Many other wars have been fought since; and total volcanic activity in the last century was greater than ever recorded.

In Daniel 12:4, Daniel's prophecies about knowledge that will be greatly increased, as it obviously has been since 1920, and about people traveling extensively, as is equally obvious.

But you, Daniel, shut up the words, and seal the book until the time of the end; many shall run to and fro, and knowledge shall increase. Daniel 12:4

In the passages below are prophecies about the population explosions for the descendants of Abraham through Isaac (Gen 13:16) and through Ishmael in Gen 16:10.

And I will make your descendants as the dust of the earth; so that if a man could number the dust of the earth, then your descendants also could be numbered.” Genesis 13:16

Then the angel of the Lord said to her , “I will multiply your descendants exceedingly, so that they shall not be counted for multitude.” Genesis 16:10

Today, Abraham's spiritual descendants through Isaac include 2.5 billion Jews and Christians. Ishmael's spiritual descendants are 1.5 billion Muslims. Together they include nearly 60% of all humans.

Last Days Prophecies for Humanity That Have Not Been Completely Fulfilled

The following prophecies have not been totally fulfilled yet for the general population of the earth. Revelations 8:7-11 deals with environmental destruction, and describes the first three trumpet judgments.

The first angel sounded; And hail and fire followed, mingled with blood, and they were thrown to the earth. And a third of the trees were burned up, and all green grass was burned up. Then the second angel sounded; And something like a great mountain burning with fire was thrown into the sea, and a third of the sea became blood. And a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed. Then the third angel sounded; and a great star fell from heaven, burning like a torch, and it fell on a third of the rivers and on the springs of water. The name of the star is Wormwood. A third of the waters became wormwood, and many men died from the water, because it was made bitter. Revelation 8:7-11

The first trumpet announces that fire will be hurled on the earth and burn one third of the trees and foliage, perhaps relating to the destruction and burning of the equatorial rain forests. The second trumpet announces that one third of living things in the sea will be killed, perhaps somewhat like the great fishing fleets that use enormous nets to sweep the oceans clean. The third trumpet ushers in a star that falls on the rivers and springs of water so that one third of fresh water will be poisoned, so many people will die. Fresh water scarcity and pollution are now giant problems; so water wars, far greater than the one between Georgia and nearby states, all seeking some of Lake Lanier's water, will surely follow.

The sixth trumpet judgment of Rev 9:13-18 calls for a great war in which an army of 200-million soldiers from the far east will kill one third of mankind.

Then the sixth angel sounded: And I heard a voice … saying to the sixth angel who had the trumpet, “Release the four angels who are bound at the great river Euphrates.” So the four angels … were released to kill a third of mankind. Now the number of the army of the horsemen was two hundred thousand thousand; I heard the number of them. And thus I saw the horses in the vision: those who sat on them had breastplates of fiery red, hyacinth blue, and sulfur yellow; and the heads of the horses were like the heads of lions; and out of their mouths came fire, smoke, and brimstone. By these three plagues a third of mankind was killed by the fire and the smoke and the brimstone which came out of their mouths. Revelation 9:13-18

Large numbers in biblical references are sometimes considered to mean “very large” rather than the literal number. That had to be the assumption for this passage until very recently, when the Prime Minister of China in a speech actually said China now has the capability to have a 200-million man army. China's population control strategy involves limiting each family to only one child. Since male children are preferred in China, female fetuses are often aborted. This has been going on for many years, so the young male population now greatly exceeds the young female population. Not only may China soon have that large an army, but they may have a reason for sending it to war.

Revelation 18:10-17 involves an important economic problem. It seems that Babylon, a great city noted for its worldwide commerce and speculation activities, is prophesied to financially collapse in one hour. The passage describes the anguish of the merchants who will be wiped out with the city.

Alas, alas, that great city Babylon, that mighty city! For in one hour your judgment has come. And the merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her, for no one buys their merchandise anymore: merchandise of gold and silver... and many other things ... The fruit that your soul longed for has gone from you, and all the things which are rich and splendid have gone from you, and you shall find them no more at all. The merchants of these things, who became rich by her, will stand at a distance for fear of the torment, weeping and wailing, and saying, “Alas, alas, that great city that was clothed in fine linen, purple, and scarlet, for in one hour such great riches came to nothing.” Revelation 18:10-17

There is no modern day city named Babylon that fits this description. However, the United States comes close to fitting the description, and its unstable financial condition now puts it in position to actually collapse in one hour. Like the 200-million man Chinese army, that has only become possible in the last decade or so; the one hour financial collapse has only become possible in the last five years or so. Financial trading in the stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets for centuries was done in face-to-face trading pits or stations. Being wiped out in an hour implies a very large number of sell orders being placed within a short time and having them all executed. Human-controlled order execution would simply stop when the human market makers were overwhelmed. Computer-controlled order execution started a decade or so ago in a few markets. And there are still a few open outcry pits in operation. But the vast bulk of trading today is computer-executed, especially in the currency trading markets that would bear the brunt of this kind of speculative panic selling. Tens of trillions of dollars worth of currencies are traded everyday. So the United States Government and the giant to-big-to-fail banks could literally be wiped out in an hour. The technically-bankrupt condition of their fraudulent balance sheets actually makes it quite possible that sometime within the next few years, the world financial system will collapse, and very possibly in an hour. Revelations 13:16-17 speaks of the mark of the beast:

[The false prophet] compelled everyone to be branded on the right hand or on the forehead, and made it illegal for anyone to buy or sell anything unless he had been branded. Revelation 13:16-17

The False Prophet is the leader of the Last Days' one world religion. It is he who will compel everyone to be branded on the right hand or forehead with the mark of the Beast, the ruler of the Last Days one-world government. It will be illegal for anyone to buy or sell anything unless they have the brand. Since Yahweh will not admit anyone with the brand into his Kingdom, we must avoid the mark if we want to be in Yahweh's Kingdom. Of course, we must keep Yahweh's laws and obey His Messiah also.

The last four passages refer to the end of the Last Generation. Revelations 16:12-14 and Zechariah 14:1-2 describe preparations that will ensure that the earth's armies can and will be sent to Jerusalem where the last great battle will be fought.

Then the sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up, so that the way of the kings from the east might be prepared. And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs coming out of the mouth of the dragon, out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet. For they are spirits of demons, performing signs, which go out to the kings of the earth and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty. Revelation 16:12-14

Behold, the day of the Lord is coming, and your spoil will be divided in your midst. For I will gather all the nations to battle against Jerusalem. Zechariah 14:1-2

Note that large upstream dams have been built on the Euphrates River, so the water flow can be and will be stopped at the appropriate time. People have come to believe that the last battle will be at Armageddon. Armageddon comes from the Hebrew “Har Megiddo” or hill of Megiddo. Megiddo is one of the oldest cities on earth. It is near the Plain of Esdraelon and near the ancient trade route from Africa to Asia and Europe in northern Israel. Since the world army that will oppose the return of the Messiah will number in the tens or even hundreds of millions of soldiers, the Beast likely will use the plain to bivouac his troops. But the war will be about who will control Jerusalem.

Matthew 24:30-31 is about the return of Yahoshua to earth after two millenniums:

All the people of earth will see the Son of man coming on the clouds of heaven with power and great glory, and He will send His angels to gather His elect from the four winds. Matthew 24:30-31

Notice another recent enabling factor for these prophecies to come true. It says all people will see Yahoshua traveling through the air on his way to Jerusalem. Until the recent technology for synchronous earth-orbiting satellites made it possible to show real time pictures of events simultaneously on television sets everywhere on earth, it was not possible for everyone on earth to watch an event live simultaneously. Now it is possible, just in time for everyone to see Yahoshua return.

The last prophecy of this presentation indicates that the war-driven mentality of humanity with its weapons of mass destruction would have resulted in the annihilation of all humans, if supernatural intervention had not been imposed to protect some of the chosen people.

And if that time had not been shortened, no human being would have survived, but shortened that time shall be for the sake of those who are chosen. Matthew 24:22

This is telling us that humans in general have not learned from the Bible's lessons and laws that competition and selfish dominance are not the ways of Yahweh. His is a way of selfless stewardship and compassionate cooperation. Love Yahweh, Yahoshua, your family, your neighbors, and your enemies.

To conclude I would like to repeat the vision of Watering Oasis in these troubled times. We are starting Watering Oasis at this time of increasing distress and evil with declining freedom to become a growing international refuge for those seeking to survive the crises in a self-sufficient and environmentally-sustainable way and to maintain the biblical lifestyle of the Messiah and His followers as a blessing for ourselves and an example to others. We invite you to support us financially, with prayers, and with your participation in our activities. Thank you.


  • Pie in the Sky: A System Dynamics Perspective of Sustainability by Willard R. Fey and Ann C. W. Lam, Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd. Presented at the 42nd Annual Conference of the International Society for the Systems Sciences, Atlanta, Georgia, July 1998.
  • The Ecocosm Paradox: Humanity's Tragic Dilemmas Arising from Earth's Environmental Crisis, Willard R. Fey and Ann C. W. Lam, Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd, 1999. Also published by the The United Nations Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS).
  • Intellectual Roots and Philosophy of System Dynamics, Willard R. Fey, Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd, 1999. Also published by the The United Nations Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS).
  • The Bridge to Humanity's Future, Willard R. Fey and Ann C. W. Lam, Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd. Presented at the World Congress of the System Sciences, July 2000.
  • Organizational Change From a New Perspective: Pattern Feedback Control in Human Systems, Willard R. Fey, Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd, 2002.
  • Alice in Wonderland and the World Trade Center Disaster: Why the Official Story of 9/11 Is a Monumental Lie, David Icke, David Icke Books, 2002.
  • The Limits to Growth, by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jorgen Randers, Potomac Associates, 1972. Subsequent updates by the same authors: Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green, 1992; and The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Chelsea Green, 2004.
  • The Energy Perspective: Oil and the Magical 4%, Willard R. Fey, View from the Rainbow Bridge: Research Newsletter of Ecocosm Dynamics, Ltd., February 2005.
  • Shadow Government Statistics: Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, John Williams, American Business Analytics & Research LLC, 2003-2012.

    © 2012 by Willard R. Fey, CEO, Ecocosm Dynamics, Ltd.

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