Chapter 5 in the RSA’s UK Urban Futures plan opens dramatically with some advice offered from a British Army Officer ‘Make a plan, any plan, just make a bloody plan’. Unfortunately, like so many plans emerging at the moment, the plan is drenched in the blood of the unborn life on Earth. This article elaborates why, despite the many helpful ideas within the plan, the project raises unrealistic and unhelpful expectations. As humanity continues to pursue unrealistic aspirations in a world that is embroiled in free-fall ecosystems collapse, plans that reinforce our delusions about the future will diminish our chances of surviving the ongoing mass extinction event.Science is not negotiable. Yet, the global economic model operates in denial about I=PAT, the Jevons paradox, and ecological overshoot. The terrifying 2020–2040 global population collapse predicted in the peer-reviewed demographic model from Prof Bystroff is not even mentioned by our media. Our global civilisation has been constructed on the delusional model that we can have infinite economic growth on a finite planet. The sell-by date for the model of growth economics was exceeded over a century ago when the Holocene mass extinction event commenced.
A Flawed Vision
It is never a good thing to inspire people to do the wrong thing and go in the wrong direction. This was overlooked in the guiding advice ‘Make a plan, any plan, just make a bloody plan’. There is no way out from the long-term predicament of climate breakdown and ecosystems collapse. Our ability to flourish economically is increasingly compromised by the fact that our ecosystems are failing fast. Our modern civilisation is built upon the quicksand of growth economics. Projects like ARC and UKUF represent different symptoms of humanity writhing in that quicksand.
One or both of these examples are likely appeal to people who are living high consumption lifestyles. Both projects envision the continuation of the current unsustainable global civilisation, which is the cause of the ongoing mass extinction event. Any sustainable global civilisation must operate according to its ecological budget. Right now, November 2023, humanity perpetuates a chronic global ecological debt.
A global civilisation that aspires to return within the carrying capacity of Earth, will prioritise the urgent need to redeem ecological overshoot. Those who are higher up the global power pyramid are struggling to accept the need to dismantle modern civilisation so that we can eliminate those aspects that drive economic growth. Huge cultural challenges need to be faced with regards to pronatalism and the widespread promotion of non-essential and eco-costly consumerism.
Strategies to peacefully and equitably downsize the global economy and population size are required for us to return within the carrying capacity of Earth. For example, the UK exceeds the biocapacity available within her borders by a factor of four. Releasing half that biocapacity for biodiversity to thrive, informs us that sustainability involves reducing the economy of the UK to one eighth of current levels. This requires the UK to deploy tools like manpower, money, and technology in a way that causes Gross Domestic Product to shrink rapidly over time. Imagination and ingenuity is required to galvanise the necessary level of community cooperation to build emotional resilience during the period of equitable Degrowth.
The UKUF project offers some practical ideas moving forwards. But, its overarching vision is one of expansion and profit rather than contraction. Therefore, these proposals raise unrealistic expectations, and reinforce our doomed trajectory. This framing problem arises in any plan that is not designed to reduce GDP. The ARC project is a much more unrealistic and dangerous style of leadership; not only is economic Degrowth not an objective, but it is designed to appeal to climate deniers. ARC reassures believers that our economic model is sound and that spirituality and self-belief are all that is needed at this juncture. Ironically, both these qualities are helpful; but, with no challenge made to the economic model, the ARC project will exacerbate ecosystems collapse.
The UKUF project is very different; it is conceived from a vague awareness that we have a problem that needs to be solved. Sadly, it fails to grasp the nature, and therefore the scale of the problem. The vague awareness needs to be replaced with clarity, thus:
- our current economic model is not sustainable and is close to collapse
- equitable economic Degrowth is imperative to achieve sustainability
- we are facing a global emergency that requires global collaboration
Equitable Degrowth involves levelling out resource use, and challenging pronatalism. Global rationing would be the fairest approach, this would prevent overconsumption, and remove the need for populations to migrate in order to subsist. Rations can only be offered safely if they are accompanied with agreement about the urgent need to voluntarily minimise birth rates until the global population reaches safe levels. Therefore, everyone needs to be empowered both emotionally and practically, to choose to minimise their child-bearing to protect the unborn from suffering. For the same reason, everyone needs to be empowered to choose a peaceful death, if they prefer not to face challenges ahead. This delicate area of ethics is explored in chapters 7, 8 and 10 in the book ‘Saving Us from Ourselves’ which is free to download as a pdf.
Once the need for equitable Degrowth is understood, we shall recognise that new build is no longer desirable. Concrete new build always comes with high ecological cost. The Leigh Spinners Mill shown in the picture at the outset, is an example of a project where the community has come together, with minimal cost, in a very positive manner, to revitalise a grand old building. This is an inspirational ongoing success story which involves and benefits the local community. There are beautiful buildings all over the UK that have fallen into disrepair. With global rationing in place, many people in the UK can be released from working in eco-costly commerce, especially in the building trade. Local communities will have more time and energy to help to restore and repurpose such sadly unused buildings, and to work on insulation improvements to existing buildings.
Worthy Leadership Emerging
The latest vision statement from the EU Wellbeing Economy Coalition states very clearly that we need to move away from GDP growth; see extract below.
‘As the EU Wellbeing Economy Coalition, we strongly believe that the European Union should place human and planetary wellbeing at the heart of its decision-making processes and structurally move away from an economic system driven by GDP growth. Our vision is a system built around five core interconnected values: participation, fairness, purpose, nature and dignity. To build a wellbeing economy across the EU, we need to take a systemic, holistic approach and realise transformational shifts to deliver.’
The Real Green New Deal is all about bursting the fantasy bubble regarding energy and sustainability. The PallaCeres report is about contracting population and consumption, and expanding moderation and cooperation; not about ‘quick fixes’ that are doomed to fall on the sword of I=PAT, for example solar panels, windmills, carbon-capture and storage, AI as a solution rather than a tool to be used cautiously etc.
The Earth Systems Treaty proposed by the Council for the Human Future, is a comprehensive vision pulling together many strands that are already partially in place moving forwards. It still falls shy of the elegant and measurable ambition stated in the UN Charter for Ecological Justice.
There are dozens of Degrowth organisations emerging globally. The Wellbeing Economy Alliance is leading the way, without openly admitting the need for Degrowth. This is simply because Degrowth is such a hard to sell concept. The Wellbeing Economy Alliance are rising to the challenge of keeping a growing number of frightened people calm and focused, without actually attempting the depth of cultural change that is needed to maximise mitigation. This is where the artistic skills and resources within the RSA can help to break through the Overton window that still prevents open discourse addressing overpopulation and overconsumption.
Many organisations are taking tentative steps as awareness grows. They are trying to do the right thing, but none are seeking to reduce GDP. Some are simply working harder on green-washing and concealing their footprint, and not attempting any genuinely helpful changes. There is still a total vacuum with regards to any leaders that openly admit the scale and speed of the global escalating emergency. Jem Bendell’s Deep Adaptation paper and his book Breaking Together have helped to raise awareness; but he says nothing about overpopulation as a key driver, although his writing implies imminent population collapse.
This omission in the global conversation will continue until an organisation emerges that has the courage to stand by the shape of the predictions in the peer-reviewed Bystroff demographic model. An aspiration to maximise mitigation will provide the emotional maturity to peacefully facilitate a global birth strike to protect both the unborn and the living. Minimal birth rates, and help-to-die services, will offer the breathing space needed whilst humanity endeavours to peacefully and equitably minimise consumption per capita. Until then, a combination of denial and delusion will continue to weaken the ambition in all our strategies and plans.
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