From Homo economicus to Homo ecologicus ~ Sequel 12 ~ Degrowth Dynamics
Luis T. Gutiérrez
December 2022
"This diagram shows that the growth of world human consumption is driven by world population and world human per capita consumption. Both population and per capita consumption have positive feedback loops that force them to grow. Population growth is driven by a natural reproduction loop (upper right) and a biotechnology loop that extends life expectancy (middle right). Per capita consumption growth is caused by technology loops (middle left) reinforced by world economics and government action loops (far left). These major loops arise in our society from human needs and motivations (bottom). Environmental collapse, resource exhaustion, and toxic pollution constraints may create negative loops that will finally stop the growth (small loops in the very middle)." The Ecocosm Paradox, Willard Fey & Ann Lam, Ecocosm Dynamics, 1999. Click the image to enlarge.
"Doomsday predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain." Pope Francis, Laudato Si 161, 2015
Humanity is being overtaken by megatrends of overpopulation (reaching 8 billions this month), overconsumption, overshoot of the biosphere's capacity to regenerate most renewable resources, and irreversible depletion of nonrenewable resources (fossil fuels, minerals). Financialization of everything is part of the greenwashing smoke screen, and easy money can kick the can down the road but cannot create calories out of thin air. Angels are not coming to the rescue. But perhaps the first step in facing the future is to humbly recognize that complex systems are unpredictable, and we don't know what we don't know. However, based on our very limited knowledge and the currently emerging megatrends, we still should try to discern possible futures in order to prepare as best we can. "We can't control systems or figure them out. But we can dance with them!" (Donella Meadows, Dancing with Systems, 2004).
Growth, Peak Growth, and Degrowth
We know that the human subsystem of the ecosphere has been growing. We know that it keeps growing, demographically and economically. We know that this growth is enabled by cheap surplus energy harvested from fossil fuels. Thus far, available evidence indicates that the so-called "renewable' energy technologies (solar, wind, etc) actually consume more energy than they save over the life cycle of the equipment and required infrastructure. We know that growth human activity has brought us to ecological overshoot. And we know that the planet is finite as to space, resources, etc., so it is reasonable to infer that the time is coming for "peak growth," i.e. a tipping point beyond which further growth is biophysically impossible. So what happens then? We don't know. A reasonable hypothesis is that "peak growth" will be followed by degrowth seeking an eventual steady state level of human activity whereby humanity's footprint on the biosphere becomes stable and sustainable in the long term.
Dynamics of Peak Growth and Ecological Overshoot
Definition of ecological overshoot:
"Overshoot = the hyperconsumption of natural resources,
at rates much faster than they can be replenished, and in
excess of the biosphere’s capacity to absorb and process
the waste discharged through their use."
Chris Rhodes, Energy Balance, 23 October 2022
When peak growth becomes overshoot, we know that it is not ecologically sustainable, so growth must be reversed. The dynamics of degrowth are practically unknown, since all historical data is about growth. However, by analogy with population dynamics of animals that have exceeded the carrying capacity of their natural habitat, we can infer some basic dynamic patterns that may become observable in human civilization degrowth. After all, humans are animals, and it would be presumptuous to assume that we are so exceptional as to be exempt of compliance with natural laws. The following analysis of degrowth dynamics is at the global level, since the entire planet is populated by humans. Similar analyses could be done at the regional and local levels. It is also an aggregation for all industries, so the following diagram represents the future worldwide human system enhanced to show the vector of resource intensities, the matrix of inter-industry transactions, and the vector of emission factors:
The positive signs indicate positive (self-reinforcing) feedback loops.
The negative signs indicate negative (self-correcting) feedback loops.
Intensity factors are in resource input units per unit of merchandise produced.
The input-output matrix is the Leontief matrix of interindustry transactions.
Emission factors are in emission output units per unit of merchandise consumed.
Click on the image to enlarge. For more information on the feedback loops, click here.
The positive signs on the consumption and population loops indicate that they are self-reinforcing growth loops, i.e., growth generates more growth. The negative signs indicate self-correcting loops that are activated when environmental constraints impede additional growth. The connectors at the top linking natural resources to population and consumption per capita create adaptation loops (dotted lines). As long as natural resources are not limiting, these loops remain inactive. When one or more natural resources (e.g., minerals, water, fossil fuels) become limiting, resource prices are bound to increase and adaptation must take place by limiting population growth, economic growth, or both. On the economic side, this entails reducing consumption, substituting one resource by another, or both. The connectors at the bottom linking waste/pollution accumulation to human comfort (material or otherwise) are mitigation loops (dashed lines). As long as environmental degradation does not affect human comfort, these loops remain inactive. When the accumulation of pollutants is such that human well-being (material comfort, health, etc.) is impacted, the costs of environmental remediation are bound to increase and mitigation must take place by shifting priorities from comfort to survival.
When the mitigation and adaptation loops are activated, analysis of possible trade-offs and substitutions will require an embedded inter-industry transactions matrix. How specificity of the analyzable trade-offs will be contingent on the granularity of industry decomposition captured by the input-output matrix. For instance, the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) divides GDP into 24 major industry sectors which in turn are decomposed into a total of 2228 industries. The web-based Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) at the Green Design Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, divides GDP into 27 "broad sector groups," each further decomposed into a number of "detailed sectors." See also the System of National Accounts (SNA), United Nations, 2009 (currently being updated to 2015).
Current energy trends, including recent news and technological forecasting, would seem to justify increasing concern that we are already in overshoot and approaching peak growth in terms of population and consumption, with GDP growth already peaking due to peaking energy availability, GDP per capita already faltering, social cohesion decreasing, and world population peaking and decreasing during this century unless something dramatic is done to prevent food supply shortages and disruption of health care services. Based on feedback loop analysis, this graph seems to summarize the state of the world, now and in the foreseeable future:
This is a computer simulation plot. Focus on the trends, not the numbers. This is one of many possible scenarios, not a prediction. It is assumed that Homo economicus does not become Homo ecologicus, thus the label "business as usual." Note that the solidarity index (i.e., social cohesion) is decreasing, energy flow is increasing decreasingly to peak growth, and population peaks before 2050 and starts decreasing in response to GDP peaking and GPD per capita decreasing as population peaks and GDP stagnates. Click on the image to enlarge. For more information on the causal loop diagrams, the simulation model, and plots of the simulated scenarios, click here.
What will happen when the patriarchal mindset of dominion faces the reality that growth is ending? We don't know, but it can be anticipated that it will not be pretty. It is reasonable to expect that it will be ugly, as ugly as the patriarchal mindset that has created all kinds of social and ecological abuse since the inception of human history. The ugliness can be mitigated if, and only if, human culture evolves away from patriarchy and toward more cooperation and solidarity, between humans and between humans and the human habitat. We need a conscious evolution from anthropocentrism to ecocentrism, from economic consciousness to ecological consciousness, from Homo economicus to Homo ecologicus. Is such a conscious evolution possible?
Dynamics of Degrowth and Post-Growth
Consider the following scenario, extended from 2100 to 2900:
This is a computer simulation plot. Focus on the trends, not the numbers. This is one of many possible scenarios, not a prediction.
It is assumed that Homo economicus does not become Homo ecologicus, thus the label "business as usual." The same dynamics could happen faster or slower by adjusting the "resistance to change" delays in the simulation model. Click on the image to enlarge. For more information on the causal loop diagrams, the simulation model, and plots of the simulated scenarios, click here.
Due to significant time delays in adjusting population growth and resource consumption rates, and further delays in developing new technologies to "do more with less," the system goes into an extended period of oscillations in population and consumption levels. The amplitude of the oscillations seems to be gradually declining toward new steady-state levels of population and consumption, but at the expense of significant decline in social cohesion (fierce competition over increasingly scarce energy resources?). However, toward the end, drastic adjustments are induced by energy availability returning to the pre-1900 level, i.e., after a very long tail, all fossil fuel resources are finally exhausted.
Extending the simulation for another 1,000 years (next plot), the calculations suggest that another transition to significantly lower levels of population and consumption would be needed before long-term stability is attained:
This is a computer simulation plot. Focus on the trends, not the numbers. This is one of many possible scenarios, not a prediction. It is assumed that Homo economicus does not become Homo ecologicus, thus the label "business as usual." Click on the image to enlarge. For more information on the causal loop diagrams, the simulation model, and plots of the simulated scenarios, click here.
Beyond 2100, it would seem that the system is leading to steady-state albeit via a long series of oscillations of decreasing amplitude. However, after 2800 or so, energy availability is depleted to just above the 1900 level, or basically solar influx plus of minimum amount of energy from remaining fossil sources. Then, even if massive starvation is avoided by human adaptation, the system adjusts down to a much lower steady-state in terms of population, economic throughput, and "standard of living." Time will tell whether this will make social cohesion decline even further, or eventually induce a much higher level of solidarity (human capacity for virtue out of necessity?) as suggested by the simulation. It cannot be overemphasized that this is a simulation, not a prediction. The simulation simply shows that eventually the system must go back to an energetically sustainable steady-state.
SUMMARY OF THE SIMULATED DEGROWTH SCENARIO
This is a simulated scenario, not a prediction. It portrays dynamic modes of behavior that can be expected during the transition from growth to sustainability. Both simulated time (horizontal axis) and simulated variables (vertical axis) can be adjusted without changing the fundamental patterns of growth, oscillations, and degrowth. During the transition, undoubtedly there will be noise due to short-term social, economic, and ecological perturbations, but it is anticipated that this overall patterns of peaks and valleys will be experienced in the long-term:
Population peaking, then oscillating and finally decreasing to a long-term sustainable level. Note the time-phasing with GDP and per capita consumption of material goods and services.
The peak in energy availability is followed by a long decline until it settles to the steady-state flow that is allowed by solar, wind, and other renewable sources of energy. The "long-tail" is the result of gradually decreasing extractability of fossil fuels and technological developments with gradually decreasing return on energy invested.
The solidarity index is currently formulated as a nonlinear function of human population, material consumption, and energy flows. It is an indicator of social cohesion, which is tightly coupled with the sustainability of resource usage. Solidarity reinforces sustainability and vice versa.
The general patterns of peaks, oscillations, and eventual settling to steady-state are indicative of turbulence during the transition, with high risk of disrupted supply chains, social unrest, and violence. The myth of "infinite growth in a finite planet" will not be easy to overcome.
This is not intended to be an "alarmist" scenario. However, it would be wise to take the Precautionary Principle into account when formulation sustainable development policies during the Anthropocene. The past cannot be changed, and the future is unknown. The exact sequence and timing of events cannot be predicted, but the general transitional patterns can be anticipated on the basis of energy biophysics. Specifically, there is empirical evidence to the effect that:
1. Fossil fuel resources are high in energy content but are not infinite.
2. Fossil fuel emissions are environmentally detrimental and/or potentially unsafe.
3. Currently known clean energy alternatives offer relatively low energy content.
Given that fossil fuels are being depleted, pollution levels are damaging the environment, and clean energy alternatives may not provide enough energy to sustain industrial economies, is it wise to just continue doing "business as usual" and trusting that some earthshaking technological breakthrough will come to pass soon enough? Is it fair for people in the "developed" nations to keep indulging in energy consumption and waste while one billion people must subsist on $2 per day or less? How will population growth rate and per capita consumption change in response to impending resource constraints? Will demographic and consumption adjustments be voluntary or involuntary? If they are involuntary, there is a high risk of violence emerging in conjunction with fierce competition for resources throughout the world. Is this "the future we want"?
Modeling and simulating the basic variables shown above is not easy but is feasible (as 50 years of Limits to Growth analysis has amply demonstrated), and it is self-evident that natural resources (energetic and otherwise) currently being used are not infinite. It is also possible to quantify other physical variables such as polluting emissions, food availability, etc. The big challenge is to formulate mitigation and adaptation decision functions that could reasonably mimic some plausible ways in which human behavior might change as quality of life is impacted and resource scarcities cannot be ignored any longer. Needless to say, the intent is not to be predict but "simply" to analyze, hopefully in a way that yields some useful insight. Easier said than done, as complex financial and cultural factors will come into play.
The Human Development Index, the Gender Inequality Index, the Environmental Performance Index, the Ecological Footprint, the GINI Index, and other such metrics, are useful in the sense that they show the social and ecological impacts of past human decisions. However, they do not take into account how human behavior might change in response to forthcoming dynamics of the transition from consumerism to sustainability. It remains to be seen whether or not such functions can be formulated in a way that is reasonable and useful to enlighten the discussion, and possibly take into account the cultural evolution from Homo economicus to Homo ecologicus.
Mitigation, Adaptation, Resilience, and Patriarchy
Three broad strategies have been proposed to guide human behavior during the transition from growth to sustainability: mitigation, adaptation, and resilience. Mitigation strategies attempt to reduce the rate of natural resource depletion and other negative impacts of economic activity on the human habitat. Adaptation strategies attempt to reverse environmental degradation by changing patterns of human behavior regarding production and consumption of goods and services. Resilience is the capacity of persons, families, and communities to survive under adverse environmental conditions. Planning for resilience is key. Some mix of mitigation, adaptation, and planning for resilience will emerge as the degrowth transition unfolds.
To the extent that Homo economicus becomes Homo ecologicus, human mitigation and adaptation actions pursuant to resilience can be peaceful and voluntary. If Homo economicus does not become Homo ecologicus, it is reasonable to anticipate that Mother Nature will force humans to adjust anyway, but the involuntary adjustments will probably include violence and wars. If patriarchal humans persist in fighting Mother Nature, then the human species may eventually become extinct, because human animals are smart but are not exempt from the laws of nature. Patriarchy has a long tail, but the patriarchal era is coming to an end. It is time for population shrinkage via women's empowerment, responsible parenthood (by both men and women), and mandatory science-based education about human sexuality and ecological realities starting in kindergarten. This requires rejection of religious patriarchy and patriarchal gender ideology.
The nefarious endurance of religious patriarchy is a bad omen. In a recently published article, The Ministry of Women and the Merger of Church and State in Fourth-Century Christianity, the author convincingly shows that there is nothing sacred about religious patriarchy. It is a purely historical phenomenon, rooted in the artificial mindset of dominion (Genesis 3:16) and not intrinsic to human nature. Going further back, the Bible is a patriarchal artifact. Christendom is legacy of the patriarchal Roman empire, and is now practically dead. Going forward, Christians better let go of patriarchal delusions of grandeur and strive to follow the example of Jesus of Nazareth, who never indulged in such delusions.
Integral Human Development and Integral Ecology
Definitions:
Integral Human Development "is the holistic development of the human person, covering all aspects of life: social, economic, political, cultural, personal and spiritual. It promotes the dignity of the human person, equality between every person, and the common good of all people in the community."
Integral Ecology "can be understood broadly as the connection between humans and our environment, and more specifically as an approach to global problems that would rectify the ecological debt that the Global North owes the Global South."
It follows that an integral ecology is contingent on integral human development. In other words, human agency for an integral ecology is practically impossible unless humans are fully aware of "the dignity of the human person, equality between every person, and the common good of all people in the community," because a healthy habitat is required for the common good. Since humans are embodied sexual beings, it then follows that any form of sexual discrimination is an obstacle to integral human development, and is also an obstacle to an integral ecology.
Patriarchal gender ideology is a formidable obstacle to both. Religious patriarchy, rooted in patriarchal gender ideology, is even worse, because it elevates discrimination to divine law. No wonder patriarchy has such a long tail. That patriarchy is an objective disorder of human nature is well known (Genesis 3:16, the first and most universal consequence of the original disorder, aka "original sin"). For this reason, if we are to foster integral human development and an integral ecology, it is imperative to dismantle patriarchy in all religious traditions.
The following table is a summary critique of patriarchy in the Catholic Church. Similar points apply for the Orthodox churches, other Christian churches, and other religious traditions:
SUMMARY CRITIQUE OF THE CATHOLIC PATRIARCHY
1. Jesus Christ is the Redeemer, God made flesh, not a patriarch.
2. God the Father is a person, but not a male.
3. God the Son is a person, but was not a male before the incarnation.
4. God the Holy Spirit is a person, but not a male.
5. The Trinity is a communion of persons, not a patriarchate.
6. The "Son of Man" is God made flesh, not a patriarch.
7. All men and women are fully consubstantial in one and the same human nature.
8. Bodiliness and sexuality are not simply identical.
9. Being a body-soul is more fundamental for human nature than sexuality.
10. The body is a sacrament of the entire person, but is not the entire person.
11. The priest acts in the person of Christ, not in the masculinity of Christ.
12. All men and women are ontologically homogeneous in their whole being.
13. All men and women are of the same flesh in their somatic structure.
14. The complementarity of man and woman is enabled by their consubstantiality.
15. All men and women are fully consubstantial with Jesus Christ as to his humanity.
16. For the redemption, the masculinity of Jesus is as incidental as the color of his eyes.
17. Jesus Christ is the Bread of Life, not the male of life.
18. The substance of the Eucharist is BODY, not XX or XY chromosomes.
19. The substance of the Eucharist is FLESH, not testosterone.
20. The Church is "one, holy, catholic, and apostolic," but not necessarily patriarchal.
21. Patriarchy is a disordered attachment to the supremacy of masculinity.
22. The Church is a communion of persons, not a patriarchate.
23. The Church is the body of Christ, not a woman with a male head.
24. The Virgin Mary is the "type" of the Church, not a woman with a male head.
25. The Virgin Mary precedes the sacramental economy as Mother of the Eucharist.
26. The Marian dimension of the Church precedes the apostolic dimension.
27. Apostolic succession is contingent on redeemed flesh, not on masculinity.
28. The nuptial mystery of Christ and the Church is not a patriarchal marriage.
29. Canon 1024 is an artificial contraceptive and abortifacient of female priestly vocations.
30. Catechism 1577 reduces the priesthood of the New Law to priesthood of the Old Law.
31. Catechism 1598 declares that ordaining only males is a choice, not a dogma.
32. The exclusively male priesthood makes invisible the "feminine genius" in Christ.
33. The Christian/Catholic/Orthodox faith is not intrinsically (dogmatically) patriarchal.
34. The conflation of patriarchal gender ideology and Christian doctrines is a disgrace.
35. Institutionalized ecclesiastical patriarchy is an abuse against Christ and the Church.
36. It is time to discard the patriarchal scaffolding that obscures the Catholic faith.
37. Male headship is an ancient but entirely artificial cultural custom, not natural law.
38. After the resurrection, nothing requires that apostolic succession be exclusively male.
39. The first "transubstantiation" in history happened in the Blessed Virgin Mary's body.
40. Transubstantiation can happen via women ordained to act in persona Christi.
In his encyclicals Laudato Si' and Fratelli Tutti, Pope Francis has provided guidance about the current destruction of the human habitat by greedy human activity, and how a renewal of human relations is required to avoid ecocide. However, such guidance is not very appealing as long as the Catholic Church remains a patriarchal institution. It is lamentable that patriarchal gender ideology, disguised a Catholic sacramental theology, continues to exclude women from ordination to the diaconate, the priesthood, and the episcopate.
Nevertheless, Laudato Si' and Fratelli Tutti are wholeheartedly recommended as guidance for human agency during the transition from ecological overshoot to ecological sanity.
Goals of the Laudato Si' Action Platform:
(1) Hearing the Cry of the Earth
(2) Hearing the Cry of the Poor
(3) Ecological Economics
(4) Adoption of Sustainable Lifestyles
(5) Ecological Education
(6) Ecological Spirituality
(7) Community Resilience and Empowerment
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