Wolframite and Casserite in the hands of a miner in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Photo by Julien Harneis (2007). Via Wikimedia Commons. Click the image to enlarge.
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It seems that all of a sudden there is talk of mineral shortages and two
metals which are thought to be plentiful in the Earth's crust, nickel
and zinc, have been added to the list of minerals now deemed critical
to the United States, a list recently updated by the U.S. Geological
Survey.
Partly, the concern is that the United States is not producing enough of
its own nickel and zinc to rest easy over the availability of these metals
on world markets. Nickel's new status stems in part from its emerging role
in electric vehicle batteries. There is only one operating U.S. nickel mine. The situation with zinc is less concerning since there are
14 mines and three smelters.
There has long been concern about Rare Earth Elements (REEs) crucial to
the computer and renewable energy infrastructure. Part of the concern is
China's domination of the production of these minerals. Chinese
mines supplied 55 percent of all REEs mined worldwide in 2020 and its
REE refineries produced 85 percent of all refined products.
What has always lurked in the background in the form of "critical" and
"strategic" minerals lists is the use of these minerals in military as
well as commercial applications. The U.S.
Defense Logistics Agency has long maintained a strategic materials
stockpile "[t]o decrease and preclude dependence upon foreign sources or
single points of failure for strategic materials in times of national
emergency."
But the trouble with minerals is they have a habit of concentrating in
places far from where they are needed and under the soil of countries
without the factories to utilize them. If it were just a question of, say,
turning agricultural produce into a value added product such as cotton
clothing from cotton grown in the same country, that would be one thing.
But high-tech fabrication requires inputs from a worldwide
network of suppliers to produce, for example, a computer or a permanent magnet (used in
wind turbines and electric vehicles). While the Democratic
Republic of Congo leads in the mine production of tantalum, a metal
critical for the production of cellphones, computers and cameras,
manufacturers are not flocking there to set up shop as so many other
minerals from other parts of the world are needed to make these products.
To get a sense of how complex the supply chains for cellphones are, a
brief review of this
graphic will make clear the scale of the problems we now face with
vulnerable mineral supply chains.
It's hard to imagine any country with significant manufacturing
capability or significant use of manufactured goods (especially electronic
goods) escaping dependency on some very long and complex supply chains.
And, so practically every country is vulnerable.
One solution to the current supply chain crisis has been to respond by
bringing manufacturing back home (often from China) to the country where
the manufactured goods are being purchased and used. That may be a useful
step. But it doesn't necessary solve the problem of a sprawling worldwide
logistics chain which now simply shifts from one country to another. The
problem of multiple points of failure remains.
Complexity has long served humans well and made it possible for them to
exploit ever larger resources from the earth, air and water and to combine
those resources into an ever greater variety of gadgets, structures and
vehicles. But as the historian of complex societies and their collapse, Joseph Tainter,
tells us, there comes a point when complexity starts to undermine the
stability of society. If we have not reached that point, we seem to be
very near it. Backing away and lowering complexity is no easy job. And, it
mostly happens when humans are forced to do it as we have been in the face
of the ongoing pandemic.
As
Tainter has explained, the results of having to lower complexity can
be very unpleasant and include the possibility of a relatively quick
collapse of existing economic, social and political
arrangements.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. His work has appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, Resilience, Common Dreams, Naked Capitalism, Le Monde Diplomatique, Oilprice.com, OilVoice, TalkMarkets, Investing.com, Business Insider, and many other places. He
is the author of an oil-themed novel entitled Prelude and has a widely followed blog called Resource Insights. He is currently a fellow of the Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions. He can be contacted at kurtcobb2001@yahoo.com.
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