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Mother Pelican
A Journal of Sustainable Human Development
Vol. 7, No. 9, September 2011 Luis T. Gutiérrez, Editor
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Strategies for the Transition to Clean Energy
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SUMMARY & OUTLINE
This entire page is being reworked and is work in progress. The plan is to build a "one page synthesis" of strategies for the transition to clean energy.
1. Primacy of Integral Human Development
2. Joint Integrity of Humanity and the Human Habitat
3. Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Human Development
4. Adaptation Strategies for Sustainable Human Development
5. Solidarity, Subsidiarity, Sustainability, and Nonviolence
6. Non-Renewable & Renewable Energy Resources
7. An Integrated Transition Strategy (2011-2050)
8. Variations of the Integrated Transition Strategy
9. Strategic Data Sources & Global Transition Megatrends
APPENDIX: ANALYSIS & SYNTHESIS OF LONG-TERM TRANSITION DYNAMICS
Methods for analysis of long-term transition strategies include system dynamics and agent-based simulation. Software is readily available to do the number crunching. For example, see these
simulations derived from this causal-loop diagram of processes that generate economic growth and collapse.
At the strategic level, simulations provide a way to build scenarios for analysis and discussion pursuant to policy recommendations. It should be stressed that this kind of exercise has nothing to do with prediction of specific events. Models are usually built on soft data in order to include the decision functions that really matter. But these are not "problem-solving" models that produce "solutions" ready to be implemented. They are, however, instrumental for analysis and synthesis of policy issues when frequently revised as conditions change.
NOTE ON THE EVOLUTION FROM SDSIM 1.5 TO SDSIM 2.0
Due to the rapid succession of events related to sustainable development worldwide, the entire SDSIM simulation project is under review. It has been determined that the basic structure of the Version 1 series must be reworked to focus on the two sets of feedback loops that matter the most: human development (including gender equality) and the replacement of fossil fuels by clean energy. This will take time, and therefore there will be a hiatus between SDSIM 1.5 and the next series of simulations to start with SDSIM 2.0.
During the SDSIM model reformulation, this supplement will serve to keep track of significant social, economic, and technical developments related to clean energy. The latest SDSIM 1.5 documentation is available here, and the web-based version of the simulation model is available in the FORIO server.
The basic architecture for SDSIM 2.0 is shaping as follows:
Bounded Population-Economic-Ecological System for Sustainable Human Development
Adapted from
Prosperity without Growth, Tim Jackson, 2011, Figure 12.1, Page 195
BASIC ARCHITECTURE FOR SDSIM 2.0
For more in the context of the 2050 Transition Strategy, click here
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To track knowledge evolution, the links within each section are listed in chronological order. To improve the content of this page, please send comments and suggestions to the Editor.
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1. Primacy of Integral Human Development
As a matter of principle, any strategy for the transition to clean energy must recognize integral human development as the most fundamental requirement to guide both public and private initiatives. Integral human development builds on respect for human rights and diligence on human duties, both individually and institutionally. A fundamental document is The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, approved by the United Nations General Assembly 10 December 1948.
KEY LINKS:
- The Stages of Life, Carl G. Jung, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, March 1930. See also
Modern Man in Search of a Soul, Harvest, 1955; The Portable Jung, Penguin, 1976; and the article on Analytical Psychology, Wikipedia as of 28 July 2011.
- A Theory of Human Motivation, Abraham H. Maslow, Psychological Review, 50, 370-396, 1943. See also Maslow's Hierarchy of Human Needs, Wikipedia as of 4 July 2011.
- The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, United Nations General Assembly, 1948.
- Human Development Reports, UNDP, 1990-2010.
- Global Citizen, Donella Meadows, Island Press, 1991.
- The Ecocosm Paradox, Willard R. Fey and Ann C.W. Lam, Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd, 1999.
- The Bridge to Humanity's Future Willard R. Fey and Ann C.W. Lam, Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd, 2001.
- Income Distribution and Wellbeing, Claudia Senik, Paris School of Economics, 2005.
- Millennium Assessment of Human Behavior, Paul R. Ehrlich and Donald Kennedy, Science, 22 July 2005.
- Integral Human Development (IHD), CRS, 2008.
- Globalization and integral human development, Eamonn Keane, Renew America, June 2010.
- Integral Human Development (Caritas In Veritate), Slide Presentation, Catholic Archdiocese of Port of Spain, 2010.
- "The Basque Case": a comprehensive model for Sustainable Human Development, Juan Jose Ibarretxe Markuartu, December 2010.
- Psychology's contributions to understanding and addressing global climate change, Janet Swim et. al., American Psychologist, May-June 2011.
- The Case for Young People and Nature: A Path to a Healthy, Natural, Prosperous Future, James Hansen et. al., Columbia University, May 2011.
- Spirituality and the Global Commons, Jim Kenney, Kosmos, Spring-Summer 2011.
- Evolution of the Concept of Sustainable Development in International Arena, Praneetha Balaji, The Legal Analyst, 2011.
- Centre for the Development of People, CEDEP, Ghana, 2011.
- Special Series: 7 Billion, National Geographic Magazine, starting January 2011.
- Special Issue on Population, Science, AAAS, 29 July 2011.
- Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, MAHB, Paul Ehrlich et al, August 2011.
- Human Development Models and Indicators
- A Theory of Human Motivation, Hierarchy of Human Needs, Classics in the History of Psychology. Abraham Maslow, Psychological Review, 50, 370-396, 1943.
- Circumplex of Human Values, Shalom Schwartz, Journal of Social Issues, 1994.
- Wilber's Theory of Human Development, compiled by Paul Helfrich, Cutting Edge of Science, Art & Spirit, 2007.
- Genuine Progress Indicator, Linda Baker, The Environmental Magazine, May 1999.
- The Genuine Progress Indicator: A Tool for Sustainable Development, John Talberth et. al., Redefining Progress, 2006.
- The Tata Index for Sustainable Human Development, Tata Council for Community Initiatives (TCCI), 2003.
- Happy Planet Index, NEF, 2009.
- Calvert-Henderson Quality of Life Indicators, Calvert-Henderson, 2000-2009.
- Human Development Index, UNDP, 2010.
- Gender Inequality Index, UNDP, 2010.
- Corruption Perception Index, Transparency International, 2010.
- Democracy Index, The Economist, 2010.
- Map of Freedom in the World, Freedom House, 2010.
- Gini Coefficient of Income/Wealth Inequality, Wikipedia as of 12 July 2011.
- Global Adaptation Index, Global Adaptation Institute, forthcoming Fall 2011.
- Socioeconomic Equality for Human Development
- Explorations in Social Inequality, Michael C. Kearl, Trinity University, 1996-2010.
- Social Inequality and Classes, Albert Benschop, University of Amsterdam, 1996-2011.
- Top Heavy: A Study of Increasing Inequality of Wealth in America and What Can Be Done About It, Edward N. Wolff and Richard C. Leone, Twentieth Century Fund, 2002.
- Global survey reveals growing anger over social inequality
, Bill Van Auken, WSWS, 2008.
- When Wealth Breeds Rage, John Ghitongo, New York Times, 23 July 2011.
- Social Inequality, Wikipedia as of 25 July 2011.
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Wealth Gaps Rise to Record Highs between Whites, Blacks and Hispanics, Pew Research Center, 26 July 2011.
- Inequality, not poverty, is world's top challenge: African leader, Human Rights for Workers, 27 July 2011.
- Gender Equality for Integral Human Development
- The Invisible Partners: How the Male and Female in Each of Us Affects Our Relationships, John Sanford, Paulist Press, 1980. "To speak of male and female is a way of saying that psychic energy, like all forms of energy, flows between two poles. Just as electricity flows between a positive and a negative pole, so psychic energy flows between two poles that have been called masculine and feminine [...] We must overcome the tendency to think of ourselves as exclusively masculine or feminine [...] It is only the union of these two principles (masculine and feminine) that constitutes a complete human being." (pp. 8, 65, 113)
- Original Unity of Man and Woman, John Paul II, Daughters of St Paul, June 1981. "The Hebrew text constantly calls the first man ha-'adam, while the term 'is (male) is introduced only when contrasted with 'issa (female) [...] In the biblical language this is a definition of cosanguinity or descent from the same lineage (e.g., cf. Genesis 29:14): the woman belongs to the same species as the man, different from other living beings created before." (pp. 48, 68)
- A Grand Declaration of Gender Equality, Writings on Buddhism, Soka Gakkai International, 1996. "The Lotus Sutra teaches that men and women are equal both in enlightenment and in practice... This amounts to a declaration that men and women are equally qualified to expound the Law in the Buddha's stead. [...] In the future, rather than a situation where either one sex or the other dominates society, it will be necessary to develop a completely new civilization in which there is balance and harmony between the sexes."
- Sex on the Brain: The Biological Differences Between Men and Women, Deborah Blum, Penguin, 1998. "Asking why and how our species developed such a strong gender difference tends to lead us into the world of evolutionary psychology, which tries to reconstruct the way our past shaped our present behavior. There's an evolutionary theory - some would call it influential, even - predicting that (overall) men will flash more quickly to anger and aggression; that women will be kinder and calmer." (p. xvi)
- Mother Nature: A History of Mothers, Infants, and Natural Selection, Sarah Blaffer Hrdy, Pantheon, 1999. Chapter 1, "Motherhood as a Minefield," starts with the following quotation: Woman seems to differ from man in her greater tenderness and less selfishness. Woman owing to her maternal instincts, displays these qualities toward her infants in an eminent degree; therefore it is likely that she would often extend them toward their fellow-creatures. Charles Darwin, 1871
- Two Wings of a Bird: The Equality of Women and Men, Bahá'í International Community, 1999. "The emancipation of women, the achievement of full equality between the sexes, is essential to human progress and the transformation of society. Inequality retards not only the advancement of women but the progress of civilization itself. The persistent denial of equality to one-half of the world's population is an affront to human dignity. It promotes destructive attitudes and habits in men and women that pass from the family to the work place, to political life, and, ultimately, to international relations. On no grounds, moral, biological, or traditional, can inequality be justified. The moral and psychological climate necessary to enable our nation to establish social justice and to contribute to global peace will be created only when women attain full partnership with men in all fields of endeavor."
- Women, Power, and the Biology of Peace, Judith L. Hand, Questpath Publishing, 2003. "Biologically, in terms of statistically significant propensities, men are generally "wired" to invade and conquer, while women are generally "wired" to nurture and stabilize [...] ... while human males may have evolved under an imperative to invade and conquer, a basic reproductive imperative for females has been to do whatever they can to foster social stability. Also that a female inclination to facilitate social stability is as deeply evolved in humans as the well-known and frequently discussed male inclination for group aggression." (p. 28)
- Enlightened Power: How Women are Transforming the Practice of Leadership, Lin Coughlin et al. (Editors), Jossey-Bass, 2005. "Women are knocking on the door of leadership at the very moment when their talents are especially well matched with the requirements of the day."
- Biological Differences Between Men and Women With Respect to Social Stability and Aggression, Judith L. Hand, 2006. "While human males may have evolved under an imperative to invade and conquer, a basic reproductive imperative for females has been to do whatever they can to foster social stability... a female inclination to facilitate social stability is as deeply evolved in humans as the well-known and frequently discussed male inclination for group aggression. This is why a world with fully empowered women sharing with men in decisions regarding war would be more socially stable: because of a female's unavoidable and costly commitment to her offspring, the future of the species, basic human female biological priorities are different from those of males."
- Life-Span Human Development, Carol K. Sigelman and Elizabeth A. Rider, Wadsworth, 2008. "Are there gender differences? Much research ahs attempted to asnwer the question of whether there are sex or gender diffrences in behavior. Although differences in some areas have been identified, other areas show no gender differences ... even when research shows that women score higher (or lower) than men on average, there will be individual women who score lower (or higher) than individual men." (p. 344)
- The End of Men, Hanna Rosin, The Atlantic Magazine, July-August 2010. "Man has been the dominant sex since, well, the dawn of mankind. But for the first time in human history, that is changing—and with shocking speed. Cultural and economic changes always reinforce each other. And the global economy is evolving in a way that is eroding the historical preference for male children, worldwide."
- Adam and Eve and the Gender Divide, John R. Coats, Huffington Post, 28 June 2010. "As Eve steps forward, as the monopoly on power slips away from men, I hope she'll be the partner he was not, that he'll find the grace to take his place beside her, and that we humans, male and female, together will find the wisdom not to pass another few millennia so out of balance."
- Why should men and women be involved as allies in peacebuilding?, New Tactics in Human Rights, 7 February 2011. "Ultimately, peacebuilding and the deconstruction of gender roles rely on changing the cultures of patriarchical institutions and systems. Both men and women contribute to the maintenance of the status quo, so sustainable approaches necessarily involve both. Allies influence change from within cultural contexts when it would be difficult for either gender alone. Men conforming to hegemonic expressions of masculinity are often in decision-making positions, and male allies may have greater access to and understanding of the structures that contribute to men and women’s suffering. Thus, men play an important role through their place in the system of patriarchy."
- Unnatural Selection: Choosing Boys Over Girls, and the Consequences of a World Full of Men, Mara Hvistendahl, Public Affairs, June 2011. Chapter 14, "The World," starts with the following quotation: It could have an imbalancing effect on the sex ratio and obviously would mean there'd be an increase in the ratio of males to females born ... If you want to continue this science fiction business a little farther, you can say this means you're going to have a lot more aggressive men running around.
- The Other Side of the Gender Equation: Gender Issues for Men in the Europe and Eurasia Region, Susan D. Somach, KDID Social Transitions, July 2011. "The patriarchal male role is dominated by four functions: money, leadership, security, and procreation ... Any assumption that only women are disadvantaged obscures an increasing concern that men‘s issues must be addressed in their own right. Painfully obvious issues like the high rates of alcohol and tobacco use that exacerbate the staggering gender gap in life expectancy have led some to question any focus on gender issues and gender equality from an exclusively women‘s perspective. It is clear that women‘s success in becoming literate and educated, their entrance into the workforce, and the establishment of de jure gender equality have only created the appearance of full equality. Achieving true gender equality will require moving beyond assumptions that obscure the development needs of both women and men."
- Shaping the Future: A Proposal to Hasten a Global Paradigm Shift for the Security and Well-being of All Children Everywhere, Judith L. Hand, August 2011. Section on "The Importance of Having Reached Critical Mass ... First, the numbers of influential men who recognize that inclusion of women is critical to major positive social transformation has reached critical mass. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has said, "There is no development strategy more beneficial to society as a whole - women and men alike - than the one which involves women as central players." Second, there are now enough powerful, influential, educated, and financially independent women who can be instigators and leaders. This is entirely new."
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Why Women’s Rights are Key to Thriving in the Age of the “Black Swan”, Laurie Mazur, RH Realitt Check, 11 August 2011.
"In an age of uncertainty, no nation can afford to squander half of its human capital. And, where women enjoy equal rights, societies are healthier, more prosperous, and less vulnerable. [...] The sustainable, resilient world we seek is in the future, not in the past. We can’t go back, nor would we want to. We can, however, go forward—by curbing our environmental impact, by advancing the rights of women, and by unleashing the intelligence and creativity of every one of the planet’s 7 billion citizens."
SYNTHESIS
What is the root cause of human underdevelopment? Is it economic inequality or other forms of social inequality? Or is it the more fundamental phenomenon of gender inequality? Recent advances in anthropology, biology, and psychology lead to an improved understanding of human relations as influenced by gender and how they should evolve for the common good:
- Each human person is unique, but all human beings share one and the same human nature.
"Genesis 1:27 observes that this essential truth about man refers both to the male and the female: "God created man in his own image ... male and female he created them. [...] The first human being the Bible calls "Man" ('adam), but from the moment of the creation of the first woman, it begins to call him "man" (ish) in relation to ishshah ("woman") because she was taken from the man = ish." John Paul II, exegesis of Genesis 1:27 and 2:24 in Original Unity of Man and Woman, 1981, pp. 23, 29.
- Indeed, there are significant (and not only genital) differences between men and women.
"The "definitive" creation of man consists in the creation of the unity of two beings. Their unity denotes above all the identity of human nature: the duality, on the other hand, manifests what, on the basis of the identity, constitutes the masculinity and femininity of created man. This ontological dimension of unity and duality has, at the same time, an axiological meaning. [...] the "woman" is for the man, and vice versa, the "man" is for the woman [...] man became the "image and likeness" of God not only through his own humanity, but also through the communion of persons which man and woman form right from the beginning. [...] essentially, an image of an inescrutable communion of Persons." John Paul II, exegesis of Genesis 1:27 and 2:24 in Original Unity of Man and Woman, 1981, pp. 70, 73-74.
- But gender differences do not cancel the fundamental "unity in diversity" across the gender continuum.
"Patriarchy is an 'equal opportunity' destroyer of both women and men. As we recommend below, an inclusive gender perspective that takes into account patriarchy’s disadvantages to both men and women offers a unique opportunity to engage in transformational learning toward a peaceful, just and gender equal global order. We believe that a transformation process would require the extension of human
rights standards intended to achieve gender justice to include all men and women of all sexualities, gender orientations and identities." Tony Jenkins and Betty A. Reardon, Gender and peace: towards a gender inclusive, holistic perspective, Metta Center for Nonviolence, November 2010.
- Biologically, in terms of statistically significant propensities, men are generally "wired" to invade and conquer, while women are generally "wired" to nurture and stabilize.
" ... while human males may have evolved under an imperative to invade and conquer, a basic reproductive imperative for females has been to do whatever they can to foster social stability. Also that a female inclination to facilitate social stability is as deeply evolved in humans as the well-known and frequently discussed male inclination for group aggression.
"This is why a world with fully empowered women sharing with men in decisions regarding war would be more socially stable: because of a female's unavoidable and costly commitment to her offspring, the future of the species, basic human female biological priorities are different from those of males.
"These differences are not cultural. Their origins are deeply rooted in our evolutionary past. We inherit them from our pre-human primate ancestors. Given free rein and uncurbed by social or ecological forces, these opposed tendencies—with males ready to bond together in acts of aggression and females more inclined to seek social stability—will play themselves out in our group behavior." Judith L. Hand, Women, Power, and the Biology of Peace, 2003, pp.28-29.
- Psychologically, there is woman in man ("anima") and there is man in woman ("animus").
"The most important contribution Jung makes in his concepts of the anima and the animus is to give us an idea of the polarity that exists within each of us. We are not homogeneous units of psychic life, but contain an inevitable opposition within the totality that makes up our being. There are opposites within us, call them what we like -- masculine and feminine, anima and animus, Yin and Yang -- and these are eternally in tension and are eternally trying to unite. The human soul is a great arena in which the Active and the Receptive, the Light and the Dark, the Yang and the Yin, seek to come together and forge within us an indescribable unity of personality. To achieve this union of the opposites within ourselves may very well be the task of life, requiring the utmost in perseverance and assiduous awareness. Usually men need women for this to come about, and women need men. And yet, ultimately the union of the opposites does not occur between a man who plays out the masculine and a woman who plays out the feminine, but within the being of each man and each woman in whom the opposites are finally conjoined." John Sanford, The Invisible Partners: How the Male and Female in each of Us Affects our Relationships, Paulist Press, 1980, page 112.
- Healthy masculinity and femininity are mutually complementary, but roles of responsibility and authority need not be (and should not be) mutually exclusive.
"Corporality and sexuality are not completely identified. Although the human body, in its normal constitution, bears within it the sign of sex and is, by its nature, male or female, the fact, however, that man is a "body" belongs to the structure of the personal subject more deeply than the fact that he is in his somatic constitution also male or female." John Paul II, exegesis of Genesis 1:27 and 2:24 in Original Unity of Man and Woman, 1981, p. 62.
- Human development leads men to become more nurturing and women to become more aggressive.
"Christ embodies the ideal of human perfection: in Him all bias and defects are removed, and the masculine and feminine virtues are united and their weaknesses redeemed; therefore, His true followers will be progressively exalted over their natural limitations. That is why we see in holy men a tenderness and a truly maternal solicitude for the souls entrusted to them while in holy women there is manly boldness, proficiency, and determination." Edith Stein, Collected Works of Edith Stein - Essays On Woman, ICS Publications, 1987.
- However, for the vast majority of men and women, biology prevails over psychology in driving behavior. Therefore, gender balance is required to attain a synthesis of masculine and feminine modes of behavior in governance for integral - and sustainable - human development.
" ... a tendency for males to band together and be easily roused to an aggressive group effort is innate. [...] This is overwhelmingly a male inclination. [...] But it is much harder to rouse great numbers of women to this state of aggression and harder still to keep them there because, on average, women find greater reinforcement in an environment that is not in turmoil. Because of genetic inclinations that are as deeply rooted as the bonding-for-aggression inclinations of men, mots women prefer to make or keep the peace, the sooner the better."
"So long as men and women are estranged from each other, so long as they are unequal and one is considered subservient, so long as men continue to be estranged from satisfying, joy-giving, connections to their children, so long as humans are alienated from the natural world and instead consider themselves its masters and dominators, the need for deep connectedness will remain unmet."
"If the collective wisdom comes to believe that it ought to be considered right and possible that women are equal to men in social and civic affairs, religion must, and will, eventually affirm that women are considered equal by whatever power they consider divine. If religion doesn’t evolve to match a public commitment to equality for the sexes, we would be teaching children a message contrary to public practice. While such a conflict between practice and belief can persist for a time, it is unlikely to be permanent."
"The long history of wars of every form fought for every conceivable reason led by men from social structures of every imaginable kind demonstrates that it is impossible for men to help themselves. They cannot free themselves from the call to war. What is needed—the only thing likely to work and be stable—is to counter the inherited male inclination for group aggression with an equally unstoppable, equally deeply rooted female inclination for social stability."
"When both male and female inclinations are encouraged simultaneously, male aggression will be bound by limits. Liberal democracies in which both sexes exercise the vote are the forums through which balance can be expressed. If we make changes with men and women in full democratic partnership, we can benefit from the best of what we think of as "male" and "female" traits to arrive at a balanced harmony. We can stop the regular sacrifice of lives and resources to the horseman, War. We can turn our attention and focused energies to the great challenge and rewards of Waging Peace." Judith L. Hand, Women, Power, and the Biology of Peace, 2003, p. 44-45, 129, 141, 153.
- Thus the criticality of gender balance in roles of responsibility and authority in both society and religion.
This is ancient wisdom: "Nothing can be more absurd than the practice which prevails in our own country, of men and women not following the same pursuits with all their strength and with one mind, for thus the state, instead of being a whole, is reduced to a half." Plato, Laws, 360 BCE. Since the inception of recorded history, flashes of this insight show up here and there in the sacred texts of religious founders, the work of learned philosophers, and the common sense of people worldwide over the centuries.
More recently, the criticality of gender balance in social institutions has received extensive attention in response to the first and second waves of feminism. Not so the even more critical issue of gender balance in religious institutions, which are notorius for a high degree of resistance to change. But the history of Christianity (see, for example, Diarmaid MacCulloch's Christianity: The First Three Thousand Years, Viking, 2010), and the history of all patriarchal religions, provide ample evidence that the lack of gender balance in roles of religious responsibility and authority inevitably leads to violence, physical and otherwise.
At a time when the old misconceptions about the superiority of men (and inferiority of women) have become utterly discredited by science and the collective unconscious, it is criminal for religious institutions to perpetuate such practices as excluding women from ordained ministry under the pretense of fidelity to literalist interpretations of patriarchal texts and traditions; an exclusion which is theologically baseless, does harm to the integral development of both men and women, and is in fact tantamount to vocational gendercide. Perpetuation of this nefarious practice cannot possibly be God's will.
Gender equality, and gender balance in roles of responsibility and authority, are essential for
- A civilized transition from fossil fuels to clean energy
- A civilized transition from consumerism to sustainability
- Sustainable improvement in integral human development
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HELP IS NEEDED TO PRODUCE A CONCISE SYNTHESIS OF ALL THE MATERIAL IN THIS SECTION.
FOR THE CURRENT DRAFT CLICK HERE. TO HELP PLEASE CONTACT THE EDITOR.
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Since integral human development cannot possibly be sustainable in a vacuum, it follows that, in conjunction with gender balance, good care must be taken of the human habitat - planet Earth.
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2. Joint Integrity of Humanity and the Human Habitat
Human development cannot happen in a vacuum. Therefore, maintaining the integrity of the human habitat is essential for sustainable human development. A fundamental document is The Earth Charter, approved by the Earth Charter Commission 29 June 2000 after 5 years of preparation and worldwide consultations.
KEY LINKS:
- A Blueprint for Survival, Edward Goldsmith and Robert Allen et. al., The Ecologist, 1972.
- The Limits to Growth, Donella & Dennis Meadows et. al., Chelsea Green, 1972, 1991, 2004.
- Technology and Ecology, J. Stan Rowe, Home Place - Essays in Ecology, NeWest Books, Edmonton, 1990.
- Ecocentrism: the Chord that Harmonizes Humans and Earth, J. Stan Rowe, The Trumpeter, Spring 1994.
- The Earth Charter, Earth Charter Initiative, 2000.
- Kyoto, Biodiversity, and the Hypocrisy of World Leaders, Ted Mosquin, Biodiverity, February 2002.
- A Manifesto for Earth, Ted Mosquin and Stan Rowe, Biodiversity, 2004.
- Energy Technology Assessments: Engineering, Economics, and Institutional Perspectives, John P. Weyant, Department of Management Science & Engineering, Stanford University, 2006.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 - Synthesis Report, 2007. Note: The Fifth Assessment Report is in preparation, scheduled for 2012.
- The Earth Charter Initiative: Values and Principles for a Sustainable Future, ECI, 2009.
- Essay on Oeconomy, Pierre Calame, International initiative for rethinking the economy, Switzerland, 2009.
- Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity, Johan Rockström et al., Ecology & Society, 2009.
- The European Environment – State and Outlook 2010, European Environment Agency, 2010.
- Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Handbook, UN Development Program (UNDP), December 2010.
- Law of Rights of Mother Earth, Decree approved by the Legislative Assemby of Bolivia, 7 December 2010.
- Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever, Jeremy Grantham, GMO, April 2011.
- Resource Limitations: Separating the Dangerous from the Merely Serious, Jeremy Grantham, GMO, July 2011.
- Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change, James Hansen and Makiko Sato, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, May 2011.
- Special Report on Renewable Energy (SRREN) - Full Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), May 2011.
- Special Report on Renewable Energy (SRREN) - Summary for Policy Makers, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), May 2011.
- Green Economy Report, UN Environment Program (UNEP), February 2011.
- Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene, UN Environment Program (UNEP), Vatican, May 2011.
- Decoupling natural resource use and environmental impacts from economic growth, UN Environment Program (UNEP), May 2011.
- Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution, Union of Concerned Scientists., June 2011.
- Climate Change and Your Health: Rising Temperatures, Worsening Ozone Pollution - Technical Appendix, Union of Concerned Scientists, June 2011.
- America's Climate Choices, National Academy of Sciences (USA), May 2011.
- Annual Energy Outlook 2011, US Energy Information Administration (EIA), April 2011.
- Energy Report & Scenarios 2000-2050, World Wide Fund for Nature (WWFN), February 2011.
- Approaching the Limits to Growth, Paul Chefurka, web site as of 15 July 2011.
- The Failed Metaphysics Behind Private Property: Sharing our Commonhood, James Bernard Quilligan, Kosmos, Spring-Summer 2011.
- How Defining Planetary Boundaries Can Transform Our Approach to Growth, Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, and Robert Costanza, Solutions, 20 May 2011.
- Contributions of Economics and Ethics to an Assessment of Emissions Trading, Adrian Muller, ETH Zurich, 2011.
- Dudefest no more? Women are infiltrating cleantech, Amanda Little, Grist, 21 July 2011.
- Sustainable Human Development: Beyond the Concept, Sanjay G. Reddy, SID, 26 July 2011.
- Data Shows All of Earth's Systems in Rapid Decline, Stephen Leahy, IPS, 29 July 2011.
- Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, MAHB, Paul Ehrlich et al, August 2011.
- Crisis and Commitment: The Lima Statement and Action Plan, Anglican Communion Environmental Network (ACEN), Lima, Peru, 4-10 August 2011.
- A Social Contract for Sustainability, WBGU, Germany, September 2011.
- Global Energy Balance
- Global Energy Balance & Climate Animations, Dept. of Geography, University of Oregon, 2003.
- Living Planet Report 2010, WWF, 2010.
- Earth's Energy Imbalance and Implications, James Hansen et. al., NASA Goddard Institute, Columbia University Earth Institute, and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LOCEAN Paris, May 2011
- Global Energy Balance, Earth Guide, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 2011.
- Global Energy Balance (Mathematics), Dept. of Geological Sciences, University of Texas, 2011.
- Global Energy Balance (Climatology), Tree-Ring Research Laboratory, University of Arizona, 2011.
- Global Energy Balance (Slides), Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech, 2011.
- Global Energy Balance Model (GEBM), Robert MacKay, Clark College, Canada, 2011.
- Global Gender Balance
- Deeper than Deep Ecology: The Eco-Feminist Connection, Ariel Salleh, Environmental Ethics, 1984.
- The Death of Nature: Women, Ecology, and the Scientific Revolution, Carolyne Merchant, Harper, 1990.
- The Ecofeminism/Deep Ecology Debate: A Reply to Patriarchal Reason, Ariel Salleh, Environmental Ethics, 1992.
- Feminism and the Mastery of Nature, Val Plumwood, Routledge, 1994.
- Feminism and Ecology, Mary Melloe, NYU Press, 1998.
- Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed, James C. Scott, Yale Uni Press, 1999.
- Patriarchy and Accumulation On A World Scale: Women in the International Division of Labour, Maria Mies, Zed Books, 1999.
- Women, Nature, and the International Division of Labour, Ariel Salleh, in Veronika Bennoldt-Thomsen, Nicholas Faraclas, and Claudia von Werlhof eds., There Is An Alternative. London: Zed Books, 2001.
- New Perspectives on Environmental Justice: Gender, Sexuality, and Activism, Rachel Stein, Rutgers Uni Press, 2004.
- The Concept of a Cultural Landscape: Nature, Culture and Agency of the Land, Val Plumwood, Ethics & the Environment, 2006.
- Sciences from Below: Feminisms, Postcolonialities, and Modernities, Sandra Harding, Duke Univ Press, 2008.
- Resource tax? Green new deal? Or new social contract?, Ariel Salleh, Online Opinion, 1 June 2010
- Green New Deal—or Globalisation Lite?, Ariel Salleh, Arena Magazine, Issue 105, 2010.
- Ecological Ethics, Patrick Curry, Polity, 2005, 2011.
There are two broad sets of strategies to ensure the long-term sustainability of the human habitat: mitigation and adaptation. As currently formulated in a patriarchal context, neither one assures a civilized transition from consumerism to sustainability. Such a transition becomes feasible if, and only if, there is a confluence of energy balance and gender balance. Energy balance, and a shift from fossil fuels to clean energy, is indispensable. The other indispensable catalyst is the transition from patriarchal domination to cross-gender solidarity.
"Patriarchy identifies women with nature and dominates both."
Patrick Curry, Ecological Ethics, Polity, 2011, p. 127 ff.
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3. Mitigation Strategies for Sustainable Human Development
Mitigation strategies attempt to reduce the rate of natural resource depletion and other negative impacts of economic activity on the human habitat.
Source: ASPOUSA
KEY LINKS:
- Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future Directions, and Potential Responses, Full Report, USA General Accountability Office, 28 July 2011.
- Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future Directions, and Potential Responses, Highlights Page, USA General Accountability Office, 28 July 2011.
- Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future Directions, and Potential Responses, Summary Page, USA General Accountability Office, 28 July 2011.
- Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future Directions, and Potential Responses, Depiction of the Global Carbon Cycle Changes Over Time, USA General Accountability Office, 28 July 2011.
- Climate Engineering: Technical Status, Future Directions, and Potential Responses, Animation of Global Average Energy Budget of the Earth's Atmosphere, USA General Accountability Office, 28 July 2011.
- Online Platform for Technologies for Mitigation and Adaptation, ClimateTechWiki Web Site as of 28 May 2011.
- Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, 2011.
- Mitigation Strategies, ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, retrieved 25 July 2011
- Carbon Capture and Utilisation – using CO2 to manufacture fuel, chemicals and consumer products, Centre for Low Carbon Futures (CLCF), July 2011.
- Urban Heat Island Mitigation, EPA, USA, June 2011.
- Incentives for mitigation investments, Björn Dransfeld, Axel Michaelowa, Martin Cames, Sean Healy, Climate Change Nr. 14, 2011.
- The Effects of Renewable or Clean Electricity Standards, USA CBO, July 2011.
- Energy Efficiency Financing Barriers and Opportunities, Namrita Kapur et. al., EDF, 2011.
- Mitigating Climate Change Through Food and Land Use, Sara J. Scherr and Sajal Sthapit, Worldwatch Institute, 2011.
- Low-Carbon Energy: A Roadmap, Worldwatch Institute, 2011.
- Poor Data, Financing Hold Back Energy Efficiency, Environmental Leader, 25 July 2011.
- Oil Consumption Hits All-Time High, Worldwatch Institute, 21 August 2011.
- Big potential of cutting greenhouse gases from waste, EEA, 29 August 2011.
The goal is not to exceed sustainable material and energy flows. The effectiveness of mitigation strategies should be evaluated against this absolute goal. Clearly, if resource productivities increase (or resource intensities decrease) but total resource consumption rates increase even more due to population growth, economic growth, or any other reason, mitigation alone will not do. Most probably, attaining global energy balance will require significant adaptation of human behavior in conjunction with radical economic reforms. Such behavioral adaptation and structural reforms are contingent on integral human development.
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4. Adaptation Strategies for Sustainable Human Development
Adaptation strategies attempt to reverse environmental degradation by changing patterns of human behavior regarding production and consumption of goods and services.
KEY LINKS:
- Europe Adapts to Climate Change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies, PEER, 2009.
- Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Local Impact, UNFCCC, 2009.
- Online Platform for Technologies for Mitigation and Adaptation, ClimateTechWiki, Web Site as of 28 May 2011.
- Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 2050, Climate Action, European Commission, March 2011.
- Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, 2011.
- National Adaptation Strategies, EEA, European Union, 2011.
- The Global Carbon Crisis: Emerging Carbon Constraints and Strategic Management Options, Timo Busch and Paul Shrivastava, July 2011.
- Climate Change Adaptation in Developed Nations, James D. Forf and Lea Berrang-Ford (Eds.), Springer, 2011.
- Climate and Development Knowledge Network, CDKN, 2011.
- Climate Change and Industrial Policy, Wim Naudé, Sustainability, July 2011.
- Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate, Richard Tingem Munang, Ibrahim Thiaw and Mike Rivington, Sustainability, June 2011.
- Climate Change Adaptation in Developed Nations, edited by James Ford and Lea Berrang-Ford, McGill University, 2011.
- Building the Climate Change Regime: Survey and Analysis of Approaches, Remi Moncel et. al., WRI & UNEP, Draft for Review by All Stakeholders as of 27 July 2011.
Assuring the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies will require a radical upgrade in the quality of human relations.
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5. Solidarity, Subsidiarity, Sustainability, and Nonviolence
Transitioning from consumerism to sustainability will require shifting gears in many significant ways. The following principles will be instrumental in attaining the transition to clean energy.
KEY LINKS:
- Principle of Solidarity
"Solidarity is the integration, and degree and type of integration, shown by a society or group with people and their neighbours. It refers to the ties in a society - social relations - that bind people to one another. The term is generally employed in sociology and the other social sciences."
- Principle of Subsidiarity
"Subsidiarity is an organizing principle that matters ought to be handled by the smallest, lowest or least centralized competent authority... A central authority should have a subsidiary function, performing only those tasks which cannot be performed effectively at a more immediate or local level... Subsidiarity is, ideally or in principle, one of the features of federalism, where it asserts the rights of the parts over the whole."
- Principle of Sustainability
"Sustainability is the capacity to endure. In ecology, the word describes how biological systems remain diverse and productive over time. Long-lived and healthy wetlands and forests are examples of sustainable biological systems. For humans, sustainability is the potential for long-term maintenance of well being, which has environmental, economic, and social dimensions."
- Nonviolence: A Prerequisite for Solidarity, Subsidiarity, and Sustainability
- The Power of Non-violence, Martin Luther King, Jr., 4 June 1957. Teaching American History web site as of 28 July 2011.
- Preventing Violence by Teaching Non-Violent Problem-Solving, APA, 28 May 2003.
- Gandhi and Beyond: Nonviolence for an Age of Terrorism, David Cortright, Paradign Publishers, 2006.
- Nonviolence, Wikipedia as of 12 July 2011.
- Nonviolent Conflict Resolution, web site as of 27 July 2011.
- Nonviolence International, web site as of 27 July 2011.
- Mahatma Gandhi Center for Global Nonviolence, James Madison University, web site as of 28 July 2011.
- The Metta Center - Nonviolence and Science, Metta Center, web site as of 28 July 2011.
- Role of Gender Equality in Attaining a Culture of Solidarity and Sustainability
- Women, Power, and the Biology of Peace, Judith L. Hand, Questpath Publishing, 2003.
- Biological Differences Between Men and Women With Respect to Social Stability and Aggression, Judith L. Hand, 2006.
- The Secret Ingredient: The Pivotal Catalyst for Change and Longterm Stability, Judith L. Hand, 2006.
- Empower Women, Judith L. Hand, 2006.
- Spread Liberal Democracy, Judith L. Hand, 2006.
- Shaping the Future: A Proposal to Hasten a Global Paradigm Shift for the Security and Well-being of All Children Everywhere, Judith L. Hand, 2011.
A shift is needed from the (currently dominant) use of non-renewable energy resources to quasi-exclusive use of renewable energy resources. Technologies to develop and deliver clean energy are readily available. But existing technologies, and improved ones to be developed, can make a positive contribution if, and only if, the human side of the equation (as outlined in the preceding sections) is taken care of.
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6. Non-Renewable & Renewable Energy Resources
Continued use and abuse of non-renewable energy sources is unsustainable. In the long-term, renewable energy sources will be indispensable.
KEY LINKS:
- Sustainability and Energy Conversions, Sally M. Benson and Franklin M. Orr. Global Climate & Energy Project, Stanford University, 2008.
- Sustainable Energy for Developing Countries, TWAS, 2008.
- Seizing the Solar Energy Solution: Combating Climate Change through Accelerated Deployment, Solar Trade Associations, December 2009.
- Meeting the Energy Challenges of the Future: A Guide for Policymakers, USA National Conference of State Legislatures, July 2010.
- Sustainable Energy Network - Weekly Newsletter, Sustainable Energy Network, Ken Bossong, 2009-2011.
- Energy Outlook 2030, British Petroleum (BP), 2011.
- Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, British Petroleum (BP), 2011.
- Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies, Mark A. Delucchi and Mark Z. Jacobson, Energy Policy, December 2010.
- Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials, Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi, Energy Policy, December 2010.
- Renewables in Global Energy Supply, International Energy Agency (IEA), January 2007.
- Prospect of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2ºC is getting bleaker, International Energy Agency (IEA), 30 May 2011.
- CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, International Energy Agency (IEA), November 2010.
- World Energy Outlook 2010 - Summary, International Energy Agency (IEA), November 2010.
- International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewable Energy: From Analysis to Action, International Energy Agency (IEA), March 2011
- World Energy Outlook 2010 - Full Report, International Energy Agency (IEA), November 2010.
- World Energy Outlook 2010 - Part B: Outlook for Renewable Energy, International Energy Agency (IEA), November 2010.
- World Energy Outlook 2010 - Part C: Focus on Energy Subsidies, International Energy Agency (IEA), November 2010.
- World Energy Outlook 2010 - Factsheets, International Energy Agency (IEA), November 2010.
- World Energy Outlook 2010 - Key Graphs, International Energy Agency (IEA), November 2010.
- Sustainable Energy Scenarios and the Role of Renewable Energy, Ryan Katofsky et. al., Navigant Consulting, March 201
- Technologies to Mitigate Climate Change, Lynn Orr, Global Climate & Energy Project, Stanford University, 2007.
- Interactions of Policies for Renewable Energy and Climate, Cedric Philibert, International Energy Agency, March 2011.
- Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Partnership , Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP), Web Site as of 28 May 2011.
- Energy+: Opportunities, Challenges and Options, David Reed and Pablo Gutman, International Architecture for Climate Finance, March 2011.
- Greenhouse gas management and energy efficiency – six reasons why you shouldn’t get these confused! , Richard Tipper, Ecometrica, April 2011.
- How to get to a fully renewable power system, David RobertsGrist, 26 May 2011.
- Moving Climate Innovation into the 21st Century: Emerging Lessons from other Sectors and Options for a New Climate Innovation Initiative, Jessica Morey et. al., UK Department of International Development and Department of Energy and Climate Change - May 2011.
- The Energy and Resources Institute, TERI, India, 2011.
- Another Record Year for Solar Power, But Clouds on the Horizon, Sam Shrank & Matthias Kimmel, Worldwatch Institute, 26 July 2011.
- Study Finds Renewable Energy Is Sought by 90% of Consumers Worldwide, Reuters, June 28, 2011.
- International Energy Outlook 2010, US Energy Information Administration (EIA), July 2011.
- New Findings on Hydro Power Could Shake up Renewable Policy, Climate Change/Clean Technica, by Susan Kraemer, August 1, 2011.
- The Dark Side of Solar and Wind Power Projects, Los Angeles Times, by Tiffany Hsu, August 3, 2011.
- Biopower - Global Market Size, Feedstock Analysis, Regulations and Investment Analysis to 2020, Global Data/Alternative Energy Magazine, August 4, 2011.
- Energy Harvesting Promises $4.4 Billion Market by 2021, Environmental Leader, August 5, 2011.
- Hydrocarbons, Industrial Metals and the Alternative Energy Fallacy, John Petersen, Seeking Alpha, 26 June 2011.
- Clean Energy & Rethinking Uncle Sam’s Role, Nino Marchetti, Earth Techling, 5 August 2011.
- The Numbers: Population, Consumption, and Reproductive Health, Vicky Markham, Center for Environment and Population (CEP), RH Reality Check, 17 August 2011.
With human willingness in one hand and technical innovation in the other, it is possible to integrate the behavioral and technical sides of the transition puzzle. However, technological innovation without human adaptation is not likely to be sufficient.
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7. An Integrated Transition Strategy (2011-2050)
INTEGRATED TRANSITION STRATEGY - PROCESS DYNAMICS VIEW:
Bounded Population-Economic-Ecological System for Sustainable Human Development
Adapted from
Prosperity without Growth, Tim Jackson, 2011, Figure 12.1, Page 195
BASIC ARCHITECTURE FOR SDSIM 2.0
There are three sets of feedback loops: human development, human adaptation, and industrial mitigation.
- Human Development Loops
The human development loops improve gender equality and other human capabilities, and guide the allocation of income/commodities generated by the economic system. Gender equality is the most crucial factor to reinforce the human development loops. Gender balance in responsible human reproduction and economic policy-making is indispensable to transition from a profit-driven economy with technological innovation at the service of financial capital accumulation to an economy where meeting human development needs is the top priority.
- Human Adaptation Loops
The human adaptation loops drive ecological investment so as to enhance the sustainability of ecosystem services. Gender equality is the most crucial factor to reinforce the human adaptation loops. Gender balance in environmental protection and the management of ecosystem services is essential to transition from an economy that attempts to dominate nature to an economy that strives for survivability by investing in ecological capital to ensure balance between humanity and the human habitat.
- Industrial Mitigation Loops
The industrial mitigation loops improve the productivity of energy and other resources by using industrial engineering methods. These loops strive to minimize the energy/resource intensity of goods and services and minimize GHG emissions and other forms of waste - toxic waste in particular. Methods of industrial engineeering and operations research (under various names encompassing the full spectrum of science and engineering) are to be applied within the framework of a total population-economy-environment system. Mitigation loops are helpful as long as their operation is subservient to, and do not interfere with, the human development and human adaptation loops.
INTEGRATED TRANSITION STRATEGY - TIME PHASES VIEW:
There are four recursive time phases: concientization, incentivation, redistribution, and democratization.
The following acronyms, and terminology are used in this transition concept and subsequent discussion:
Financial Transaction Tax (FTT)
Global Citizens Movement (GCM)
Human Development (HD)
Human Development Index (HDI)
Human Development Report (HDR)
Integral Human Development (IHD)
International Standards Organization (ISO)
Land Value Tax (LVT) or Resource Value Tax (RVT)
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Maslow's Hierarchy of Human Needs (MASLOW)
Non-Governmental Organization (NGO)
Principle of Solidarity (SOLIDARITY)
Principle of Subsidiarity (SUBSIDIARITY)
Principle of Sustainability (SUSTAINABILITY)
Sustainable Development (SD)
Sustainable Human Development (SHD)
Triple Bottom Line (TBL)
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A brief synopsis of each phase of the transition concept is provided below:
- The first phase (2011-2020) is concientization to enable incentivation
The objective is to create widespread popular support for the required revisions of tax codes and energy subsidies. In other words, the first phase is about creating a collective mindset of global citizenship and social responsibility, strong enough to translate into political will to face the inevitable transition and implement required reforms. Gender equality is key.
- The second phase (2021-2030) is incentivation to enable redistribution
The objective is to reform tax codes and energy subsidies to expedite the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. Applicable reforms include shifting taxes from earned income to the usage (extraction) of unearned resources and the release of pollution, as well as taxing financial transactions of dubious social value.
- The third phase (2031-2040) is redistribution to enable democratization
The objective is to institutionalize democracy with distributive justice. Applicable reforms include adopting a Universally Guaranteed Personal Income (i.e., a basic minimum income rather than a minimum wage) and a Maximum Allowable Personal Wealth (i.e., an upper limit on financial wealth accumulation) that can be democratically adjusted periodically.
- The fourth phase (2041-2050) is worldwide democratization
The objective is democratization of global, national, and local governance with widely institutionalized implementation of the solidarity, subsidiarity, and sustainability principles. Decisions are to be made at the lowest possible level consistent with governance capabilities and the common good of the global commonwealth.
KEY POINTS:
- The four phases are not envisioned to be strictly sequential. They most probably will overlap, with recursions and convulsions along the way.
- The term "gender equality" is not to be understood as "gender uniformity." By gender equality is meant equality of dignity and personal development opportunities across the entire gender continuum. In other words, full equality in all dimensions of human life: physical, intellectual, psychological, vocational, spiritual.
- A menu of possible actions to foster gender equality is still TBD, but fostering gender equality (100% participation) will be crucial in all four phases and beyond. It is anticipated that action items pursuant to overcoming patriarchy would include:
- National movements such as the Equal Rights Ammendment in the USA.
- Regional programs such as the European Institute for Gender Equality.
- International programs such as the UN MDGs, ESD, CEDAW, and UNWOMEN.
- Support initiatives in secular institutions (pay gap, gender quotas, etc).
- Support initiatives in religious institutions (women in roles of religious authority).
- Research on issues of human sexuality and gender equality.
- Research on patriarchy, linguistics, human languages, and gender equality.
- The term "clean energy" is to be understood as "clean renewable energy" that is naturally replenished and does not produce GHG emissions when used. It does not include absurdities such as "clean coal."
- The menu of possible actions offered to foster clean energy is not presumed to be complete or definitive. Various mixes of monetary and fiscal policies are possible top down, and an incalculable number of bottom up initiatives are bound to emerge. However, the following fiscal and monetary policies are strongly recommended:
- Definition and implementation of appropriate financial speculation taxes as soon as possible (catastrophe prevention).
- Bailouts of any kind of institution via money supply mechanisms are to be made illegal as soon as possible (catastrophe prevention).
- A radical shift of tax burdens from the middle class to the very rich (distributive justice).
- A radical shift from taxing income to taxing resource usage and unabated pollution (ecological justice).
- A radical shift from social welfare programs to basic income and help-yourself programs (distributive justice).
- A gradual shift from "international development assistance" to global equity practices (restorative justice).
- A gradual evolution toward the minimal required form of environmental/resource global governance (sustainability assurance).
- It is understood that other factors or combinations of factors may be necessary and/or sufficient for the transition:
- Education on nonviolence, solidarity, subsidiarity, sustainability, and other best practices to foster a civilized transition.
- Zero tolerance of war, genocide, and other forms of institutionalized violence at any level of governance.
- Protection of human rights and sustainable human development to become top priorities at all levels of governance.
- Technology and industrial production are to be at the service of human development, not the other way around.
- Inter-industry collaboration pursuant to maximum pollution mitigation during the transition.
- Inter-industry adaptation of products and technologies in transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy.
- Consumption mitigation and adaptation to pollution-free and climate-friendly goods and services.
- However, the combination of gender equality and clean energy is proposed as the necessary and sufficient driver for the transition, and are expected to have a multiplying effect throughout the global human system.
KEY LINKS:
- The Bridge to Humanity's Future, Willard R. Fey and Ann C.W. Lam, EDL, 2001.
- Great Transition Initiative - Global Scenarios, GTI, 2007.
- The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability, James Gustave Speth, Yale University Press, 2088.
- Vision 2050, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2010.
- Energy Report & Scenarios 2000-2050, World Wide Fund for Nature (WWFN), February 2011.
- Green Economy Report, United Nations Environmental Program, February 2011.
- America's Climate Choices, USA National Academy of Sciences, May 2011.
- Prosperity without Growth, Tim Jackson, 2011.
There can be many variations of any conceivable transition scenario. Some of the variations being investigated are identified in the following section.
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8. Variations of the Integrated Transition Strategy
In terms of the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, there seems to be a convergence of outlook that is shared by business, agencies, and NGOs. For example, the following table juxtaposes the latest transition projections by British Petroleum (BP), the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). The time windows are not the same, and the energy units are defined differently, but the patterns of energy substitution are similar albeit with the BP outlook being most pessimistic, and the WWF outlook being most optimistic, about replacing fossil fuels by clean energy. The objective of the strategy proposed in Section 7 is to enable the WWF scenario.
Energy in Billion TOE
BP Outlook 1990-2030 For larger image, see BP page 16
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Energy in Quadrillion BTU
EIA Outlook 1980-2035 For larger image, see EIA page 63
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Energy in EJ/a
WWF Outlook 2000-2050 For larger image, see WWF page 92
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The following variations are being considered for the 2011-2050 time window:
- Variations on fossil fuel reserves and the timing of "peak oil"
- Variations on the timing and intensity of climate changes
- Variations on the performance, schedule, and cost of clean energy
- Variations on the human propensity to consume
- Variations on the human propensity to adapt
- Variations on the world financial system (speculation, regulation)
- Variations on the pace of progress in secular gender equality
- Variations on the pace of progress in religious gender equality
The current plan is to formulate and explore these variations with SDSIM 2.0.
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9. Strategic Data Sources & Global Transition Megatrends
Listed below are links to the best data and knowledge sources in two categories: strategic data sources and global transition megatrends.
KEY LINKS:
- STRATEGIC DATA SOURCES
- UNFCCC Technology Information System, UNFCCC Presentation, 2002.
- Great Transition Initiative (GTI) Scenarios and Database, GTI, 2007.
- Maps and Graphics Library, UNEP/Arindal, 2008.
- World Income Inequality Database, WIID, UNU-WIDER, 2008.
- Human Development Index (HDI) Database, UNDP, 2010.
- 2010 World Population Data Sheet, PRB, 2010.
- Policies and Measures Databases, UN International Energy Agency (IEA), 2011.
- Energy Research Guide and Database, US Energy Information Agency (EIA), 2011.
- Energy Outlook 2030, BP, 2011.
- Statistical Review of World Energy 2011, BP, 2011.
- 100% Renewable Energy by 2050, WWF, 2011.
- IMF Financial Databases, IMF, 2011.
- World Income Inequality Database (WIID)
- 2011 World Population Data Sheet, PRB, 2011.
- Gender, Institutions and Development Data Base (GID-DB), OECD, 2011.
- USA Federal Government Databases (DATA), USA Government, 2011.
- United Nations Database (UNData), United Nations, 2011.
- GLOBAL TRANSITION MEGATRENDS
The precision and accuracy of the data sources listed above span the entire spectrum from "very soft" to "somewhat credible." The visible megatrends are highly aggregated and therefore less sensitive to data collection inadequacies. Still invisible is the most critical megatrend toward gender equality/gender balance in roles of responsibility and authority.
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