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SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
SIMULATION

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The PelicanWeb's Journal of Sustainable Development

Research Digest on Integral Human Development,
Solidarity, Sustainability, and Related Global Issues

Vol. 6, No. 8, August 2010
Luis T. Gutierrez, Editor

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SIGN OF THE TIMES UNITY IN DIVERSITY EDUCATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INTEGRAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS RELATED GLOBAL ISSUES KNOWLEDGE TAXONOMY

Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)
Version 1 - User Interface

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SDSIM User Interface
SDSIM Model Equations

GUIDE TO SDSIM USER INTERFACE

It is hoped that this simulation model will be useful for the analysis of trade-offs between social development and economic development priorities.

The user can click on the following boxes to bring up supporting text:

THE PELICAN WEB & JOURNAL - a brief mission statement for the Pelican Web
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION (SDSIM) - a brief overview of the model scope and objectives
USER DECISIONS - definitions of the two decision variables currently available and how to use the sliders
CLICK HERE FOR SIMULATION DESCRIPTION - a brief overview of "backcasting" and simulation scenarios
LINK TO SDSIM @ THE PELICAN WEB - click on this box to navigate to the Pelican Web Home Page
RUN THE SIMULATION - click on this box to run the simulation (1950-2200)
GRAPH 1 NOTES - definitions of the variables plotted in Graph 1 and brief overview of their dynamic behavior
GRAPH 2 NOTES - definitions of the variables plotted in Graph 2 and brief overview of their dynamic behavior
GRAPH 3 NOTES - definitions of the variables plotted in Graph 3 and brief overview of their dynamic behavior

There are also links (lower left-hand corner) to Touchgraph maps of information/knowledge pertaining to each one of the ten nodes (level variables) of the simulation model: human population, human consumption, energy consumption, cumulative pollution, biosphere integrity, climate integrity, ecological capital, financial capital, social capital, and human capital. These are included to facilitate searching for information pursuant to critical reviews of the model.

At the moment, the user can change one or both of two decision variables:

      • PRIORITY GIVEN TO SOCIAL/HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
      • INTENDED HUMAN BIRTH RATE
The best way to start is to read the supporting text for all the boxes and, in particular, the USER DECISIONS box. Then run the model initially with the default settings. Click on the "?" in the sliders to see the precise definition of the decision variable. Then the user can change one or both of the two decision variables. It is suggested that the user try small changes for each variable first, then run simulations at the extreme values for each variable. After making changes, click on the "u" to reset the decision variables to their default values.

NOTE: Any suggestion for improving the definition of modeling requirements, the model design and formulation, the user interface, and the analysis and synthesis of the simulation results would be most welcome. To submit comments/suggestions/corrections please contact the journal editor.

FREE DOWNLOAD: To download the SDSIM, click on the button to the right. SDSIM requires STELLA 9.1.3 or higher. Readers who do not have the STELLA software can download a free one month trial from ISEE Systems. downloadsdsim


LIST OF SDSIM MODEL EQUATIONS

The equations are listed in the order of execution for each iteration, i.e., 1950, 1951, . , 2199, 2200. They are shown here in STELLA notation. For each variable and constant, the name is shown first followed by the initial values for levels and the constant values for conversion factors. Then the units are shown, followed by a brief description of the variable or constant. Initialization equations are listed first. Then the runtime equations are listed, first the levels, then the rates. Note that there may be several equations that pertain to the formulation of a rate. The equations with pairs of numerical values are nonlinear graphic functions, with the independent variable shown in parenthesis on the right-hand side of the equation and the dependent variable on the left-hand side of the equation. Finally, the time specifications are listed, i.e., start time = 1950, stop time = 2200, and delta time = 1.0. Euler's method (rectangular integration) is used. The run mode is set to normal (i.e., all flows are continuous without identification of batches or cycle times of specific items) and the pause interval is set to infinity (i.e., the simulation rums without pause from start time to stop time.

{ INITIALIZATION EQUATIONS }

HUMAN_CONSUMPTION = 4082000000
UNITS: USD
DOCUMENT: HUMAN CONSUMPTION (Gross World Product - GWP) in "real value" US Dollars as of 1950, based on the CIA World Factbook. Each dollar is assumed to have real value in terms of goods and services independently of financial manipulations or any other form of phantom wealth.
HUMAN_POPULATION = 2555974605
UNITS: persons
DOCUMENT: HUMAN POPULATION (number of persons in the world) as of 1950, based on the US Census World Population Clock.
ENERGY_CONSUMPTION = 3000
UNITS: MTOE
DOCUMENT: ENERGY CONSUMPTION is measured in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (MTOE)
EURPC = 10
UNITS: mtoe/USD
DOCUMENT: Energy Usage Rate Per Capita
CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA = MEAN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION/HUMAN_POPULATION,ENERGY_CONSUMPTION*(1/EURPC)*(1/HUMAN_POPULATION))
UNITS: USD/persons
DOCUMENT: Consumption per Capita (real value dollars/person) is a function of human population, human consumption, and energy consumption.
HDRTF = GRAPH(CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA)
(0, 0.04895), (0.3, 0.04365), (0.6, 0.04255), (0.9, 0.04215), (1.2, 0.042), (1.5, 0.0418), (1.8, 0.0418), (2.1, 0.0418), (2.4, 0.0418), (2.7, 0.04195), (3, 0.04205)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate Time Factor as a function of Consumption Per Capita
ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL = 100
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: ECOLOGICAL CAPITAL is measured as the remaing percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet ecological capital (both biosphere and climate). It is assumed to be 95 as of 1950.
HDRAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1.8), (10, 1.61), (20, 1.39), (30, 1.18), (40, 0.92), (50, 0.73), (60, 0.62), (70, 0.6), (80, 0.6), (90, 0.6), (100, 0.6)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
INTENDED_HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE = 0.065
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Default value of Intended Human Birth Rate based on worldwide average from 2001 to 2009
HUMAN_CAPITAL = 0.1
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: HUMAN CAPITAL is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the maximum human potential. It is asumed to be 0.1 as of 1950. More specifically, HUMAN CAPITAL is the percentahe of the HUMAN POPULATION that has ascended to levels 4 and 5 of Maslow's pyramid of human needs.
HBRAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0, 0.96), (10, 0.7425), (20, 0.6225), (30, 0.5475), (40, 0.465), (50, 0.405), (60, 0.3975), (70, 0.3975), (80, 0.3975), (90, 0.3975), (100, 0.3975)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate Adjustment Factor as a Function of Human Capital
HBRRFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1), (3750, 1.05), (5000, 1.09), (6250, 1.1), (7500, 1.11), (8750, 1.11), (10000, 1.11), (11250, 1.11), (12500, 1.09), (13750, 1.05), (15000, 1.01)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate Reproduction Factor as a function of Human Consumption
HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE = INTENDED_HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE*HBRAFHC*HBRRFHC*SMTH3(HUMAN_POPULATION,100)
UNITS: persons/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate (persons/year) is a function of intended (biologically possible) birth rate, human population, human consumption, and human capital.
HUMAN_DEATH_RATE = HDRTF*HDRAFEC*SMTH3(HUMAN_POPULATION,30)
UNITS: persons/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate (persons/year) is a function of human population, longevity, and ecological capital.
CCRTF = 0.001
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Consumption Rate Conversion Time Factor
CCRAFEC = GRAPH(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1.01), (3750, 1.01), (5000, 1.01), (6250, 1.01), (7500, 1.01), (8750, 1.08), (10000, 1.24), (11250, 1.29), (12500, 1.29), (13750, 1.29), (15000, 1.29)
UNITS: Unitless
CCRCF = 10
UNITS: USD/persons
DOCUMENT: Consumables Consumption Rate Conversion Factor
FINANCIAL_CAPITAL = 1500000000000
UNITS: USD
DOCUMENT: FINANCIAL CAPITAL is measured in US Dollars whether or not each dollar has real value (real wealth). So this level includes US dollars of real wealth and US dollars of phantom wealth (e.g., dollars generated by financial manipulations that are not based on real wealth (goods and services).
FCCCCF = 0.000000033
UNITS: USDollars/USDollars
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital to Consumables Consumption Conversion Factor
PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT = 0.25
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Default value of Priority Given to Social/Human Development as a fraction of total Financial Capital allocated to both Economic and Social/Human Development
PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT = 1-PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Default value of Priority Given to Economic Development as a fraction of Financial Capital allocated to Economic Development
FCCC = FCCCCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: USDollars/USDollars
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Consumables Consumption
CPRTF = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 0.0015), (10, 0.0015), (20, 0.0015), (30, 0.0015), (40, 0.0015), (50, 0.0015), (60, 0.0015), (70, 0.0015), (80, 0.006), (90, 0.0205), (100, 0.0505)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Production Rate Time Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
CPRCF = 6
UNITS: USD/persons
DOCUMENT: Consumables Production Rate Conversion Factor
CONSUMABLES_PRODUCTION_RATE = CPRTF*SMTH3(MIN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_POPULATION*CPRCF),1000)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Production Rate (real value dollars/year) is a function of human population, expected human consumption, and ecological capital.
CONSUMABLES_CONSUMPTION_RATE = CCRTF*CCRAFEC*MEAN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_POPULATION*CCRCF,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL*FCCC)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Consumption Rate (real value dollars/year) is a function of human population, expected human consumption, ecological capital, and financial capital.
EURTF = 0.02
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Usage Rate Time Factor
FCEDCF = 0.000000033
UNITS: mtoe/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital to Energy Development Conversion Factor
FCED = FCEDCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: mtoe/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Energy Development
ECRTF = 0.03
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Conversion Rate Time Factor
ENERGY_CONVERSION_RATE = ECRTF*SMTH3(SMTH3(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION,30),50)
UNITS: mtoe/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Conversion Rate (mtoe/year) is a function of expected energy consumption. It is assumed that technologies are available to convert any required mix of renewable and non-renewable energy sources as required to for energy consumption.
ENERGY_USAGE_RATE = EURTF*SMTH3(MIN(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_CONSUMPTION*EURPC,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL/FCED),50)
UNITS: mtoe/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Usage Rate (mtoe/year) is a function of human consumption, actual energy consumption, and financial capital.
PARTF = 0.01
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Abatement Rate Time Factor
CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION = 3000000000
UNITS: PPMV
DOCUMENT: CUMULATIVE POLLUTION is measured in CO2 Parts Per Million By Volume (PPMV)
FCPACF = 0.000000033
UNITS: ppmv/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital to Pollution Abatement Conversion Factor
FCPA = FCPACF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: USD/ppmv
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Pollution Abatement
PGRTF = 0.095
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Time Factor
PGRCF = 14
UNITS: ppmv/persons
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Conversion Factor
PGRAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(3000000000, 0.99), (3600000000, 0.99), (4200000000, 0.99), (4800000000, 0.99), (5400000000, 0.99), (6000000000, 0.99), (6600000000, 0.99), (7200000000, 1.05), (7800000000, 1.1), (8400000000, 1.32), (9000000000, 1.8)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Consumption
PGRAFEC = GRAPH(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1.14), (3750, 0.93), (5000, 0.87), (6250, 0.86), (7500, 0.86), (8750, 0.86), (10000, 0.86), (11250, 0.86), (12500, 0.91), (13750, 1.02), (15000, 1.38)
UNITS: Unitless
POLLUTION_GENERATION_RATE = HUMAN_POPULATION*PGRTF*PGRCF*PGRAFHC*PGRAFEC
UNITS: ppmv/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate (ppmv/year) is a function of human population, human consumption, and energy consumption.
POLLUTION_ABATEMENT_RATE = PARTF*SMTH3(MIN(CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL/FCPA),50)
UNITS: ppmv/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Abatement Rate (ppmv/year) is a function of cumulative pollution and financial capital.
BDRTF = 0.0025
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Degradation Rate Time Factor
BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY = 85
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: BIOSPHERE INTEGRITY is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet biosphere. It is assumed to be 85 as of 1950.
BDAFCP = GRAPH(CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION)
(0, 1.5), (500000000000, 5), (1e+012, 10.5), (1.5e+012, 24), (2e+012, 33.5), (2.5e+012, 44), (3e+012, 55.5), (3.5e+012, 61.5), (4e+012, 68), (4.5e+012, 74), (5e+012, 74.5)
UNITS: percent/ppmv
DOCUMENT: Biospehe Degradation Adjustment Factor as a function of Cumulative Pollution
BRRTF = 0.0001
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Restoration Rate Time Factor
CLIMATE_INTEGRITY = 95
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: CLIMATE INTEGRITY is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet climate. It is assumed to be 95 as of 1950.
BRRAFCI = GRAPH(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY)
(0, 9.5), (10, 10), (20, 29.5), (30, 52), (40, 61.5), (50, 71), (60, 81.5), (70, 87), (80, 90.5), (90, 92), (100, 92)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Restoration Adjustment Factor as a function of Climate Integrity
BIOSPHERE_RESTORATION_RATE = BRRTF*SMTH3(MIN(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY,BRRAFCI),100)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Restoration Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.
BIOSPHERE_DEGRADATION_RATE = BDRTF*SMTH3(MIN(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY,CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION*BDAFCP),500)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Degradation Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.
CDRTF = 0.006
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Degradation Rate Time Factor
CDRAFBI = GRAPH(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY)
(0, 80.5), (10, 80.5), (20, 80), (30, 79), (40, 63), (50, 54), (60, 28.5), (70, 25.5), (80, 15), (90, 13), (100, 13)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Climate Degradation Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Biosphere Integrity
CRRTF = 0.0001
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Restoration Rate Time Factor
CLIMATE_RESTORATION_RATE = CRRTF*SMTH3(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY,30)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Restoration Rate (percent/year) is a function of climate integrity. It is assumed that climate restoration must be achieved by natural climate factors and is not achievable by technological means.
CLIMATE_DEGRADATION__RATE = CDRTF*SMTH3(MAX(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY,CDRAFBI),10)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Degradation Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.
DSCTF = 0.01
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Social Capital Time Factor
DSCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1), (10, 1), (20, 1), (30, 1), (40, 1), (50, 1), (60, 1), (70, 1.04), (80, 1.1), (90, 1.15), (100, 1.21)
UNITS: Unitless
SOCIAL_CAPITAL = 1
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: SOCIAL CAPITAL is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the social cohesion to be expected in a civilized society. It is asumed to be 1 as of 1950. The most fundamental indicator of social cohesion is gender equality, i.e., the percentage of the population that accepts and practices gender equality in all dimensions of human life.
ISCTF = 0.008
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Social Capital Time Factor
ISCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0, 4.15), (10, 5.6), (20, 6.15), (30, 6.5), (40, 6.5), (50, 6.1), (60, 5.2), (70, 2.2), (80, 1.55), (90, 1.3), (100, 1.3)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Social Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Capital
FCSCCF = 0.000000001
UNITS: percent/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital to Social Capital Conversion Factor
FCSC = FCSCCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: percent/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Social Development
INCREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL = ISCTF*ISCAFHC*SMTH3(MIN(SOCIAL_CAPITAL,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL*FCSC),17.5)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Social Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing social capital, existing human capital, and financial capital.
DECREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL = DSCTF*DSCAFEC*SMTH3(SOCIAL_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Social Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing social capital and ecological capital.
DHCTF = 0.01
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Human Capital Time Factor
DHCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1.4), (10, 1.41), (20, 1.38), (30, 1.3), (40, 1.13), (50, 1.05), (60, 1.03), (70, 1), (80, 1), (90, 1), (100, 1)
UNITS: Unitless
IHCAFCPC = GRAPH(CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA)
(0, 0.7), (0.5, 2.45), (1, 3.15), (1.5, 3.35), (2, 3.35), (2.5, 3.2), (3, 3.025), (3.5, 2.725), (4, 2.5), (4.5, 2.2), (5, 0.575)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Consumption Per Capita
IHCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0, 1), (10, 0.89), (20, 0.775), (30, 0.67), (40, 0.565), (50, 0.455), (60, 0.36), (70, 0.24), (80, 0.135), (90, 0.055), (100, 0)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Capital
IHCAFSC = GRAPH(SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 37.5), (10, 61.5), (20, 75), (30, 79.5), (40, 81), (50, 80), (60, 76.5), (70, 62.5), (80, 50.5), (90, 46), (100, 46)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Social Capital
INCREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL = 0.1*IHCAFCPC*IHCAFHC*SMTH3(MIN(HUMAN_CAPITAL,SOCIAL_CAPITAL,IHCAFSC),70)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing human capital, existing social capital, and consumption per capita.
DECREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL = DHCTF*DHCAFEC*SMTH3(HUMAN_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Human Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing human capital and ecological capital.
DECTF = 0.005
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Ecological Capital Time Factor
IECTF = 0.004
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital Time Factor
IECAFCI = GRAPH(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY)
(0, 1.44), (10, 3.33), (20, 4.455), (30, 5.31), (40, 5.85), (50, 6.255), (60, 6.435), (70, 6.615), (80, 6.705), (90, 6.975), (100, 7.02)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Climate Integrity
IECAFBI = GRAPH(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY)
(0, 1.845), (10, 2.205), (20, 2.79), (30, 4.095), (40, 4.86), (50, 5.4), (60, 5.49), (70, 5.58), (80, 5.715), (90, 5.985), (100, 5.985)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Biosphere Integrity
INCREASING_ECOLOGICAL__CAPITAL = IECTF*SMTH3(MIN(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL,IECAFCI,IECAFBI),50)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital (percent/year) is a function of ecological capital, biosphere integrity, and climate integrity.
DECREASING_ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL = DECTF*SMTH3(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Ecological Capital (percent/year) is a function of ecological capital.
DFCTF = 0.001
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Financial Capital Time Factor
DFCCF = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1.58), (10, 1.54), (20, 1.43), (30, 1.29), (40, 1.19), (50, 1.15), (60, 1.09), (70, 1.05), (80, 1.03), (90, 1.02), (100, 1.02)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Financial Capital Conversion Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
IFCTF = 0.008
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital Time Factor
IFCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1), (10, 1), (20, 1), (30, 1.01), (40, 1.04), (50, 1.04), (60, 1.04), (70, 1.1), (80, 1.26), (90, 1.32), (100, 1.32)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
IFCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(3000000000, 1), (3600000000, 1), (4200000000, 1), (4800000000, 1), (5400000000, 1), (6000000000, 1), (6600000000, 1.02), (7200000000, 1.13), (7800000000, 1.39), (8400000000, 1.49), (9000000000, 1.49)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Consumption
INCREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL = IFCTF*IFCAFEC*IFCAFHC*SMTH3(FINANCIAL_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital (dollars/year) is a function of financial capital, human population, and ecological capital.
DECREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL = DFCTF*DFCCF*SMTH3(FINANCIAL_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Financial Capital (dollars/year) is a function of financial capital and ecological capital.

{ RUNTIME EQUATIONS }

{ LEVELS }

HUMAN_CONSUMPTION(t) = HUMAN_CONSUMPTION(t - dt) + (CONSUMABLES_PRODUCTION_RATE - CONSUMABLES_CONSUMPTION_RATE) * dt
UNITS: USD
DOCUMENT: HUMAN CONSUMPTION (Gross World Product - GWP) in "real value" US Dollars as of 1950, based on the CIA World Factbook. Each dollar is assumed to have real value in terms of goods and services independently of financial manipulations or any other form of phantom wealth.
HUMAN_POPULATION(t) = HUMAN_POPULATION(t - dt) + (HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE - HUMAN_DEATH_RATE) * dt
UNITS: persons
DOCUMENT: HUMAN POPULATION (number of persons in the world) as of 1950, based on the US Census World Population Clock.
ENERGY_CONSUMPTION(t) = ENERGY_CONSUMPTION(t - dt) + (ENERGY_CONVERSION_RATE - ENERGY_USAGE_RATE) * dt
UNITS: MTOE
DOCUMENT: ENERGY CONSUMPTION is measured in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (MTOE)
ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL(t) = ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL(t - dt) + (INCREASING_ECOLOGICAL__CAPITAL - DECREASING_ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL) * dt
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: ECOLOGICAL CAPITAL is measured as the remaing percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet ecological capital (both biosphere and climate). It is assumed to be 95 as of 1950.
HUMAN_CAPITAL(t) = HUMAN_CAPITAL(t - dt) + (INCREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL - DECREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL) * dt
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: HUMAN CAPITAL is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the maximum human potential. It is asumed to be 0.1 as of 1950. More specifically, HUMAN CAPITAL is the percentahe of the HUMAN POPULATION that has ascended to levels 4 and 5 of Maslow's pyramid of human needs.
FINANCIAL_CAPITAL(t) = FINANCIAL_CAPITAL(t - dt) + (INCREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL - DECREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL) * dt
UNITS: USD
DOCUMENT: FINANCIAL CAPITAL is measured in US Dollars whether or not each dollar has real value (real wealth). So this level includes US dollars of real wealth and US dollars of phantom wealth (e.g., dollars generated by financial manipulations that are not based on real wealth (goods and services).
CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION(t) = CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION(t - dt) + (POLLUTION_GENERATION_RATE - POLLUTION_ABATEMENT_RATE) * dt
UNITS: PPMV
DOCUMENT: CUMULATIVE POLLUTION is measured in CO2 Parts Per Million By Volume (PPMV)
BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY(t) = BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY(t - dt) + (BIOSPHERE_RESTORATION_RATE - BIOSPHERE_DEGRADATION_RATE) * dt
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: BIOSPHERE INTEGRITY is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet biosphere. It is assumed to be 85 as of 1950.
CLIMATE_INTEGRITY(t) = CLIMATE_INTEGRITY(t - dt) + (CLIMATE_RESTORATION_RATE - CLIMATE_DEGRADATION__RATE) * dt
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: CLIMATE INTEGRITY is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the pristine planet climate. It is assumed to be 95 as of 1950.
SOCIAL_CAPITAL(t) = SOCIAL_CAPITAL(t - dt) + (INCREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL - DECREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL) * dt
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: SOCIAL CAPITAL is measured as percentage (0 to 100) of the social cohesion to be expected in a civilized society. It is asumed to be 1 as of 1950. The most fundamental indicator of social cohesion is gender equality, i.e., the percentage of the population that accepts and practices gender equality in all dimensions of human life.

{ RATES }

CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA = MEAN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION/HUMAN_POPULATION,ENERGY_CONSUMPTION*(1/EURPC)*(1/HUMAN_POPULATION))
UNITS: USD/persons
DOCUMENT: Consumption per Capita (real value dollars/person) is a function of human population, human consumption, and energy consumption.
HDRTF = GRAPH(CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA)
(0, 0.04895), (0.3, 0.04365), (0.6, 0.04255), (0.9, 0.04215), (1.2, 0.042), (1.5, 0.0418), (1.8, 0.0418), (2.1, 0.0418), (2.4, 0.0418), (2.7, 0.04195), (3, 0.04205)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate Time Factor as a function of Consumption Per Capita
HDRAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1.8), (10, 1.61), (20, 1.39), (30, 1.18), (40, 0.92), (50, 0.73), (60, 0.62), (70, 0.6), (80, 0.6), (90, 0.6), (100, 0.6)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
HBRAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0, 0.96), (10, 0.7425), (20, 0.6225), (30, 0.5475), (40, 0.465), (50, 0.405), (60, 0.3975), (70, 0.3975), (80, 0.3975), (90, 0.3975), (100, 0.3975)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate Adjustment Factor as a Function of Human Capital
HBRRFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1), (3750, 1.05), (5000, 1.09), (6250, 1.1), (7500, 1.11), (8750, 1.11), (10000, 1.11), (11250, 1.11), (12500, 1.09), (13750, 1.05), (15000, 1.01)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate Reproduction Factor as a function of Human Consumption
HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE = INTENDED_HUMAN_BIRTH_RATE*HBRAFHC*HBRRFHC*SMTH3(HUMAN_POPULATION,100)
UNITS: persons/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Birth Rate (persons/year) is a function of intended (biologically possible) birth rate, human population, human consumption, and human capital.
HUMAN_DEATH_RATE = HDRTF*HDRAFEC*SMTH3(HUMAN_POPULATION,30)
UNITS: persons/yr
DOCUMENT: Human Death Rate (persons/year) is a function of human population, longevity, and ecological capital.
CCRAFEC = GRAPH(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1.01), (3750, 1.01), (5000, 1.01), (6250, 1.01), (7500, 1.01), (8750, 1.08), (10000, 1.24), (11250, 1.29), (12500, 1.29), (13750, 1.29), (15000, 1.29)
UNITS: Unitless
PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT = 1-PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Default value of Priority Given to Economic Development as a fraction of Financial Capital allocated to Economic Development
FCCC = FCCCCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: USDollars/USDollars
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Consumables Consumption
CPRTF = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 0.0015), (10, 0.0015), (20, 0.0015), (30, 0.0015), (40, 0.0015), (50, 0.0015), (60, 0.0015), (70, 0.0015), (80, 0.006), (90, 0.0205), (100, 0.0505)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Production Rate Time Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
CONSUMABLES_PRODUCTION_RATE = CPRTF*SMTH3(MIN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_POPULATION*CPRCF),1000)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Production Rate (real value dollars/year) is a function of human population, expected human consumption, and ecological capital.
CONSUMABLES_CONSUMPTION_RATE = CCRTF*CCRAFEC*MEAN(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_POPULATION*CCRCF,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL*FCCC)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Consumables Consumption Rate (real value dollars/year) is a function of human population, expected human consumption, ecological capital, and financial capital.
FCED = FCEDCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: mtoe/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Energy Development
ENERGY_CONVERSION_RATE = ECRTF*SMTH3(SMTH3(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION,30),50)
UNITS: mtoe/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Conversion Rate (mtoe/year) is a function of expected energy consumption. It is assumed that technologies are available to convert any required mix of renewable and non-renewable energy sources as required to for energy consumption.
ENERGY_USAGE_RATE = EURTF*SMTH3(MIN(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION,HUMAN_CONSUMPTION*EURPC,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL/FCED),50)
UNITS: mtoe/yr
DOCUMENT: Energy Usage Rate (mtoe/year) is a function of human consumption, actual energy consumption, and financial capital.
FCPA = FCPACF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO_ECONOMIC_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: USD/ppmv
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Pollution Abatement
PGRAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(3000000000, 0.99), (3600000000, 0.99), (4200000000, 0.99), (4800000000, 0.99), (5400000000, 0.99), (6000000000, 0.99), (6600000000, 0.99), (7200000000, 1.05), (7800000000, 1.1), (8400000000, 1.32), (9000000000, 1.8)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Consumption
PGRAFEC = GRAPH(ENERGY_CONSUMPTION)
(2500, 1.14), (3750, 0.93), (5000, 0.87), (6250, 0.86), (7500, 0.86), (8750, 0.86), (10000, 0.86), (11250, 0.86), (12500, 0.91), (13750, 1.02), (15000, 1.38)
UNITS: Unitless
POLLUTION_GENERATION_RATE = HUMAN_POPULATION*PGRTF*PGRCF*PGRAFHC*PGRAFEC
UNITS: ppmv/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Generation Rate (ppmv/year) is a function of human population, human consumption, and energy consumption.
POLLUTION_ABATEMENT_RATE = PARTF*SMTH3(MIN(CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL/FCPA),50)
UNITS: ppmv/yr
DOCUMENT: Pollution Abatement Rate (ppmv/year) is a function of cumulative pollution and financial capital.
BDAFCP = GRAPH(CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION)
(0, 1.5), (500000000000, 5), (1e+012, 10.5), (1.5e+012, 24), (2e+012, 33.5), (2.5e+012, 44), (3e+012, 55.5), (3.5e+012, 61.5), (4e+012, 68), (4.5e+012, 74), (5e+012, 74.5)
UNITS: percent/ppmv
DOCUMENT: Biospehe Degradation Adjustment Factor as a function of Cumulative Pollution
BRRAFCI = GRAPH(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY)
(0, 9.5), (10, 10), (20, 29.5), (30, 52), (40, 61.5), (50, 71), (60, 81.5), (70, 87), (80, 90.5), (90, 92), (100, 92)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Restoration Adjustment Factor as a function of Climate Integrity
BIOSPHERE_RESTORATION_RATE = BRRTF*SMTH3(MIN(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY,BRRAFCI),100)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Restoration Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.
BIOSPHERE_DEGRADATION_RATE = BDRTF*SMTH3(MIN(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY,CUMULATIVE_POLLUTION*BDAFCP),500)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Biosphere Degradation Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.
CDRAFBI = GRAPH(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY)
(0, 80.5), (10, 80.5), (20, 80), (30, 79), (40, 63), (50, 54), (60, 28.5), (70, 25.5), (80, 15), (90, 13), (100, 13)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Climate Degradation Rate Adjustment Factor as a function of Biosphere Integrity
CLIMATE_RESTORATION_RATE = CRRTF*SMTH3(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY,30)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Restoration Rate (percent/year) is a function of climate integrity. It is assumed that climate restoration must be achieved by natural climate factors and is not achievable by technological means.
CLIMATE_DEGRADATION__RATE = CDRTF*SMTH3(MAX(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY,CDRAFBI),10)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Climate Degradation Rate (percent/year) is a function of biosphere integrity and climate integrity.
DSCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1), (10, 1), (20, 1), (30, 1), (40, 1), (50, 1), (60, 1), (70, 1.04), (80, 1.1), (90, 1.15), (100, 1.21)
UNITS: Unitless
ISCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0, 4.15), (10, 5.6), (20, 6.15), (30, 6.5), (40, 6.5), (50, 6.1), (60, 5.2), (70, 2.2), (80, 1.55), (90, 1.3), (100, 1.3)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Social Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Capital
FCSC = FCSCCF*PRIORITY_GIVEN_TO__SOCIAL_DEVELOPMENT
UNITS: percent/USD
DOCUMENT: Financial Capital allocated to Social Development
INCREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL = ISCTF*ISCAFHC*SMTH3(MIN(SOCIAL_CAPITAL,FINANCIAL_CAPITAL*FCSC),17.5)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Social Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing social capital, existing human capital, and financial capital.
DECREASING_SOCIAL_CAPITAL = DSCTF*DSCAFEC*SMTH3(SOCIAL_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Social Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing social capital and ecological capital.
DHCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1.4), (10, 1.41), (20, 1.38), (30, 1.3), (40, 1.13), (50, 1.05), (60, 1.03), (70, 1), (80, 1), (90, 1), (100, 1)
UNITS: Unitless
IHCAFCPC = GRAPH(CONSUMPTION_PER_CAPITA)
(0, 0.7), (0.5, 2.45), (1, 3.15), (1.5, 3.35), (2, 3.35), (2.5, 3.2), (3, 3.025), (3.5, 2.725), (4, 2.5), (4.5, 2.2), (5, 0.575)
UNITS: 1/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Consumption Per Capita
IHCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CAPITAL)
(0, 1), (10, 0.89), (20, 0.775), (30, 0.67), (40, 0.565), (50, 0.455), (60, 0.36), (70, 0.24), (80, 0.135), (90, 0.055), (100, 0)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Capital
IHCAFSC = GRAPH(SOCIAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 37.5), (10, 61.5), (20, 75), (30, 79.5), (40, 81), (50, 80), (60, 76.5), (70, 62.5), (80, 50.5), (90, 46), (100, 46)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Social Capital
INCREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL = 0.1*IHCAFCPC*IHCAFHC*SMTH3(MIN(HUMAN_CAPITAL,SOCIAL_CAPITAL,IHCAFSC),70)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Human Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing human capital, existing social capital, and consumption per capita.
DECREASING_HUMAN_CAPITAL = DHCTF*DHCAFEC*SMTH3(HUMAN_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Human Capital (percent/year) is a function of existing human capital and ecological capital.
IECAFCI = GRAPH(CLIMATE_INTEGRITY)
(0, 1.44), (10, 3.33), (20, 4.455), (30, 5.31), (40, 5.85), (50, 6.255), (60, 6.435), (70, 6.615), (80, 6.705), (90, 6.975), (100, 7.02)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Climate Integrity
IECAFBI = GRAPH(BIOSPHERE_INTEGRITY)
(0, 1.845), (10, 2.205), (20, 2.79), (30, 4.095), (40, 4.86), (50, 5.4), (60, 5.49), (70, 5.58), (80, 5.715), (90, 5.985), (100, 5.985)
UNITS: percent
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Biosphere Integrity
INCREASING_ECOLOGICAL__CAPITAL = IECTF*SMTH3(MIN(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL,IECAFCI,IECAFBI),50)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Ecological Capital (percent/year) is a function of ecological capital, biosphere integrity, and climate integrity.
DECREASING_ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL = DECTF*SMTH3(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: percent/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Ecological Capital (percent/year) is a function of ecological capital.
DFCCF = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1.58), (10, 1.54), (20, 1.43), (30, 1.29), (40, 1.19), (50, 1.15), (60, 1.09), (70, 1.05), (80, 1.03), (90, 1.02), (100, 1.02)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Financial Capital Conversion Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
IFCAFEC = GRAPH(ECOLOGICAL_CAPITAL)
(0, 1), (10, 1), (20, 1), (30, 1.01), (40, 1.04), (50, 1.04), (60, 1.04), (70, 1.1), (80, 1.26), (90, 1.32), (100, 1.32)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Ecological Capital
IFCAFHC = GRAPH(HUMAN_CONSUMPTION)
(3000000000, 1), (3600000000, 1), (4200000000, 1), (4800000000, 1), (5400000000, 1), (6000000000, 1), (6600000000, 1.02), (7200000000, 1.13), (7800000000, 1.39), (8400000000, 1.49), (9000000000, 1.49)
UNITS: Unitless
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital Adjustment Factor as a function of Human Consumption
INCREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL = IFCTF*IFCAFEC*IFCAFHC*SMTH3(FINANCIAL_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Increasing Financial Capital (dollars/year) is a function of financial capital, human population, and ecological capital.
DECREASING_FINANCIAL_CAPITAL = DFCTF*DFCCF*SMTH3(FINANCIAL_CAPITAL,30)
UNITS: USD/yr
DOCUMENT: Decreasing Financial Capital (dollars/year) is a function of financial capital and ecological capital.

{ TIME SPECS }

STARTTIME=1950
STOPTIME=2200
DT=1.00
INTEGRATION=EULER
RUNMODE=NORMAL
PAUSEINTERVAL=INF


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